Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.1 #158
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #160
Pace 66.1 #258
Improvement +0.1 #180

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #177 C+ D+ D D B-
Defense #151 C+ C D+ B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #242 1.31 #36 +1.5 #125
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #309 0.90 #30 -1.7 #267
Three Pointers 50% #32 0.93 #288 +2.2 #109
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #114 +2.0 #122
Freethrows 0.27 #282 67% #327 0.18 #313
Second Chance 30.7% #174 0.91 #331 0.28 #257
Turnovers 18.7% #320
Total Offense -0.4 #177

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #227 1.17 #189 +0.7 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #93 0.76 #175 -1.0 #266
Three Pointers 40% #214 0.91 #58 +2.7 #81
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #109 +2.4 #111
Freethrows 0.23 #22 74% #240 0.17 #29
Second Chance 29.5% #133 1.11 #281 0.33 #212
Turnovers 14.6% #291
Total Defense +0.5 #151

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #97 -0.8% #99
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.2% #127 -3.9% #105
Possession Length 17.7 #206 17.5 #202
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #135 0.19 #255
Improvement -0.7 #223 +0.8 #141

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.4% 22.7% 17.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 98.8% 99.5% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 98.8% 93.0%
Conference Champion 13.6% 16.1% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round21.4% 22.7% 17.3%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 76.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 413 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 96 High Point L 71 - 97 30% -17  0 - 1 -20 -5 C+ D F -14 F+ C+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 113 Troy L 61 - 64 49% -7  0 - 2 -3 -11 D+ D- F +9 B+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 114 @Northern Iowa L 54 - 70 27% -10  0 - 3 -10 -6 D+ D+ D -5 C- B D-
 Sun, Nov 23 199 Queens W 90 - 79 71% +11  1 - 3 +5 +20 A+ D- A+ -13 B- F F
 Thu, Nov 27 117 Richmond W 73 - 72 39% +6  2 - 3 +4 +2 B A F +2 C+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 88 Illinois St. L 65 - 72 27% -4  2 - 4 -1 -1 B+ F F+ -0 B+ F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 193 @Elon W 97 - 88 47% -1  3 - 4 +10 +19 A- D- A -9 B C F
 Sat, Dec 6 177 Harvard W 79 - 69 67% +7  4 - 4 +6 +6 A+ B F +0 C+ B F+
 Thu, Dec 18 326 @Manhattan W 75 - 68 76% +2  5 - 4 -0 -3 C D+ F +3 C C- C+
 Sun, Dec 21 234 Charleston Southern W 84 - 76 76% +6  6 - 4 +1 +4 C+ B- C+ -3 B- C+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 150 Mercer W 74 - 72 60% +3  7 - 4 1 - 0 -1 +1 B- D- C+ -1 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 274 Western Carolina L 77 - 80 OT 81% -3  7 - 5 1 - 1 -12 -4 C- D- C -9 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 7 254 @Chattanooga W 78 - 67 59% +5  8 - 5 2 - 1 +9 +5 C B- D+ +4 C C B
 Sat, Jan 10 353 VMI W 69 - 48 93% +10  9 - 5 3 - 1 +5 -9 D B- F +15 A+ C A+
 Wed, Jan 14 239 @Samford W 77 - 73 56% +2  10 - 5 4 - 1 +3 +1 C D+ D+ +2 C+ C C
 Sat, Jan 17 211 Wofford L 70 - 74 72% +3  10 - 6 4 - 2 -10 -1 F+ B+ D- -9 D- D+ D
 Wed, Jan 21 351 @The Citadel L 75 - 77 OT 83% +6  10 - 7 4 - 3 -12 -4 D F C- -8 C+ F+ F+
 Fri, Jan 23 305 @UNC Greensboro W 89 - 66 70% +5  11 - 7 5 - 3 +18 +20 A+ D A+ +0 C C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 239 Samford W 78 - 70 77%
 Sun, Feb 1 254 Chattanooga W 75 - 67 79%
 Wed, Feb 4 130 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 72 33%
 Sun, Feb 8 305 UNC Greensboro W 81 - 69 86%
 Wed, Feb 11 150 @Mercer L 75 - 78 37%
 Sat, Feb 14 353 @VMI W 78 - 68 84%
 Wed, Feb 18 130 East Tennessee St. W 70 - 69 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 211 @Wofford W 75 - 74 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 351 The Citadel W 78 - 62 93%
 Sat, Feb 28 274 @Western Carolina W 77 - 74 63%
Totals 18 - 10 12 - 6 +0 +0 C+ D+ D +0 C+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.1 6.0 1.7 13.6 1st
2nd 0.0 2.4 10.1 11.1 2.0 25.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 10.1 11.6 2.3 26.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 9.9 10.2 2.8 0.1 25.1 4th
5th 0.6 3.2 2.4 0.2 6.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.1 6.5 14.6 22.9 25.3 18.6 8.0 1.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.7    1.5 0.2
14-4 75.1% 6.0    3.3 2.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 27.5% 5.1    1.0 2.4 1.5 0.2
12-6 3.1% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 5.8 5.3 2.1 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.7% 36.9% 36.9% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.1
14-4 8.0% 31.6% 31.6% 13.5 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 5.5
13-5 18.6% 28.6% 28.6% 13.9 0.0 1.4 3.1 0.8 0.0 13.3
12-6 25.3% 22.0% 22.0% 14.2 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.7 0.1 19.7
11-7 22.9% 19.2% 19.2% 14.5 0.2 1.9 2.2 0.1 18.5
10-8 14.6% 13.6% 13.6% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.2 12.6
9-9 6.5% 13.2% 13.2% 15.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 5.6
8-10 2.1% 8.0% 8.0% 15.4 0.1 0.1 1.9
7-11 0.5% 3.2% 3.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 14.2 78.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.6 1.6 46.0 46.0 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%