Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +7.8 #74
Expected Predictive Rating +9.6 #62
Pace 64.1 #306
Improvement +3.2 #51

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #72 C B- A- A- D+
Defense #90 B C C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 1.04 #316 -1.0 #219
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #49 0.75 #189 +2.8 #57
Three Pointers 31% #350 1.26 #3 -1.5 #234
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #166 +0.2 #167
Freethrows 0.37 #20 77% #31 0.28 #9
Second Chance 35.0% #62 1.04 #187 0.36 #85
Turnovers 12.7% #13
Total Offense +4.7 #72

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #220 1.01 #29 +3.4 #73
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #211 0.76 #185 +0.4 #151
Three Pointers 43% #108 0.95 #84 +0.4 #162
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #56 +4.3 #56
Freethrows 0.33 #268 72% #138 0.23 #253
Second Chance 27.4% #76 1.18 #325 0.32 #191
Turnovers 16.9% #156
Total Defense +3.0 #90

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #289 0.2% #180
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.0% #143 -8.5% #42
Possession Length 17.2 #149 18.5 #331
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #57 0.15 #105
Improvement +0.4 #158 +2.8 #40

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 10.2% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.7% 3.2% 1.1%
Average Seed 10.9 10.9 11.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.8% 96.9%
Conference Champion 5.7% 6.9% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 2.5% 0.9%
First Round8.0% 8.7% 5.4%
Second Round1.8% 2.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 78.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 25 - 46 - 9
Quad 310 - 116 - 10
Quad 46 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 209 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 50 89% +16  1 - 0 +21 +13 C A+ B- +11 A B- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 123 Pacific W 78 - 77 79% +2  2 - 0 +0 +8 C A- B -8 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 134 Southern Illinois W 86 - 81 OT 81% -1  3 - 0 +4 +6 F+ D A+ -3 B A F
 Sat, Nov 15 50 @Santa Clara L 83 - 98 28% -13  3 - 1 -1 +16 B+ D A- -17 F F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 181 UC Davis L 71 - 75 87% +0  3 - 2 -9 -8 D+ F F -0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 146 UC Santa Barbara W 77 - 64 83% +8  4 - 2 +11 +1 C D- D +10 A+ D A
 Thu, Nov 27 46 Washington L 66 - 83 36% -7  4 - 3 -6 -3 D- C+ B+ -2 D+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 98 San Francisco W 81 - 65 60% +5  5 - 3 +21 +18 A- C A+ +5 A F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 112 UC San Diego W 76 - 70 76% +4  6 - 3 +6 +10 B B+ B+ -3 A+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 131 @Washington St. W 78 - 64 62% +5  7 - 3 +19 +14 F+ A+ A+ +6 A C- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 122 Duquesne W 78 - 75 78% +5  8 - 3 +2 +8 D A+ A -5 A F C+
 Sat, Dec 20 58 Boise St. W 81 - 66 55% +10  9 - 3 1 - 0 +21 +22 A+ C+ A+ +1 C A A+
 Tue, Dec 30 102 @Colorado St. W 75 - 62 49% +4  10 - 3 2 - 0 +21 +10 F A+ A- +12 A+ D+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 149 @Fresno St. W 66 - 65 66% -2  11 - 3 3 - 0 +5 +3 D+ B- B+ +1 C D- A-
 Tue, Jan 6 41 San Diego St. L 68 - 73 46% +2  11 - 4 3 - 1 +4 +8 F+ A+ A+ -4 B+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 116 Wyoming W 92 - 83 77% +4  12 - 4 4 - 1 +9 +31 A+ A+ B+ -21 F+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 38 @Utah St. L 62 - 71 21% -3  12 - 5 4 - 2 +7 -0 B- F C +7 B A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 347 @Air Force W 81 - 66 93% +10  13 - 5 5 - 2 +6 +9 A D- F -2 F A+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 249 San Jose St. W 87 - 54 92% +16  14 - 5 6 - 2 +25 +21 C+ B+ A+ +9 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 43 @New Mexico L 73 - 80 25% -0  14 - 6 6 - 3 +8 +9 B D B -1 A D D+
 Tue, Jan 27 75 Grand Canyon W 66 - 60 OT 62% -2  15 - 6 7 - 3 +11 -3 F+ C+ A+ +13 A+ B A-
 Fri, Jan 30 125 UNLV W 80 - 71 79%
 Tue, Feb 3 58 @Boise St. L 68 - 73 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 149 Fresno St. W 76 - 66 83%
 Sat, Feb 14 41 @San Diego St. L 67 - 74 25%
 Tue, Feb 17 249 @San Jose St. W 75 - 65 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 38 Utah St. L 72 - 75 41%
 Tue, Feb 24 43 New Mexico L 74 - 75 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 125 @UNLV W 77 - 74 59%
 Tue, Mar 3 116 @Wyoming W 73 - 71 56%
 Sat, Mar 7 347 Air Force W 78 - 55 98%
Totals 21 - 10 13 - 7 +8 +5 C B- A- +3 B C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.2 2.7 0.6 5.7 1st
2nd 0.3 4.1 6.8 1.4 0.0 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.5 11.5 2.7 0.0 20.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 5.7 13.9 5.4 0.1 25.7 4th
5th 0.3 5.2 12.4 6.1 0.3 24.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.8 2.1 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.8 11.1 20.5 25.8 21.4 11.8 4.1 0.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 98.4% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 65.2% 2.7    1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 18.7% 2.2    0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 1.8 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.6% 51.6% 15.6% 35.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 42.6%
16-4 4.1% 31.8% 14.8% 17.0% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.0 2.8 19.9%
15-5 11.8% 19.4% 12.2% 7.2% 10.8 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.0 9.5 8.2%
14-6 21.4% 11.2% 8.6% 2.6% 11.0 0.2 2.1 0.2 19.0 2.8%
13-7 25.8% 6.6% 5.9% 0.7% 11.1 0.1 1.4 0.2 24.1 0.7%
12-8 20.5% 4.5% 4.4% 0.2% 11.3 0.7 0.2 19.6 0.2%
11-9 11.1% 2.7% 2.7% 11.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.8
10-10 3.8% 1.7% 1.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 3.7
9-11 0.7% 0.7
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.3% 6.8% 2.5% 10.9 90.7 2.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.9 15.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 42.9% 10.3 3.6 25.0 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 45.5% 10.2 3.6 27.3 14.5