Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.3 #327
Expected Predictive Rating -6.4 #271
Pace 76.4 #27
Improvement +2.7 #67

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #308 C- D D C C-
Defense #325 C- D- C- F+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #177 1.11 #235 -0.9 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #104 0.69 #287 +0.6 #152
Three Pointers 37% #262 1.02 #188 -1.9 #250
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #243 -2.3 #243
Freethrows 0.29 #222 75% #109 0.22 #189
Second Chance 25.7% #309 0.96 #298 0.25 #322
Turnovers 18.4% #300
Total Offense -5.1 #308

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #74 1.21 #258 -3.5 #295
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #335 0.64 #23 +3.0 #7
Three Pointers 42% #134 1.04 #216 -1.1 #232
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #229 -1.6 #230
Freethrows 0.39 #358 72% #194 0.28 #354
Second Chance 35.4% #332 1.15 #308 0.41 #343
Turnovers 15.1% #260
Total Defense -5.2 #325

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #250 2.0% #341
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.5% #235 1.2% #206
Possession Length 16.4 #87 16.9 #100
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #151 0.14 #84
Improvement +1.7 #94 +1.0 #121

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 5.6% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5.0% 5.7% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 73.2% 78.2% 47.2%
Conference Champion 4.9% 5.7% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.7% 5.0% 3.2%
First Round2.5% 2.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Away) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 31 - 31 - 10
Quad 410 - 912 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 46 @Washington L 50 - 94 2% -21  0 - 1 -30 -18 F F F -9 D+ F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 218 @Portland L 74 - 83 18% -14  0 - 2 -9 -9 F C- F +1 C+ B B+
 Sat, Nov 8 162 @Loyola Marymount L 72 - 94 11% -9  0 - 3 -19 +3 B+ D- D- -22 F C F
 Tue, Nov 11 54 @Oklahoma L 69 - 95 3% -10  0 - 4 -13 +0 D+ D+ F -13 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 12 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 104 1% -16  0 - 5 -7 +8 C+ D+ C+ -13 B+ F D-
 Tue, Nov 18 37 @SMU L 60 - 106 1% -25  0 - 6 -29 -15 D F D- -8 F+ A- C
 Thu, Nov 20 168 @Marshall L 70 - 98 12% -5  0 - 7 -26 -8 F D F -15 F A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 23 91 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 111 5% -20  0 - 8 -18 +1 F C- B+ -15 F C D
 Wed, Dec 3 138 @Illinois-Chicago W 63 - 62 9% +5  1 - 8 +5 -8 C D+ D +14 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 6 95 @DePaul L 72 - 76 5% +1  1 - 9 +5 +2 A F F +3 A+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 10 70 @Tulsa L 84 - 117 3% -16  1 - 10 -22 +4 A C F+ -23 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 297 Alabama A&M W 95 - 83 52% +4  2 - 10 1 - 0 +1 +27 A+ A+ C -24 C- F C-
 Mon, Jan 5 318 Alabama St. W 90 - 79 58% +6  3 - 10 2 - 0 -1 +5 B- D- D- -7 C- C D
 Sat, Jan 10 306 @Texas Southern W 74 - 66 32% +8  4 - 10 3 - 0 +3 -1 B- F C +4 A- C C-
 Mon, Jan 12 345 @Prairie View L 61 - 73 45% -6  4 - 11 3 - 1 -21 -15 F D- F+ -7 D D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 315 Florida A&M L 67 - 71 58% -1  4 - 12 3 - 2 -16 -5 D- C+ D- -11 F+ F A-
 Mon, Jan 19 248 Bethune-Cookman L 82 - 87 OT 41% +2  4 - 13 3 - 3 -13 -3 C+ F+ F -9 B F A
 Sat, Jan 24 260 @Southern W 75 - 74 23% -2  5 - 13 4 - 3 -1 +4 D- C B- -5 B- F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 79 - 69 84%
 Wed, Feb 4 288 @Grambling St. L 73 - 79 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 350 Alcorn St. W 81 - 76 69%
 Mon, Feb 9 337 Jackson St. W 83 - 79 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 318 @Alabama St. L 79 - 83 36%
 Mon, Feb 16 297 @Alabama A&M L 72 - 78 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 306 Texas Southern W 82 - 81 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 345 Prairie View W 84 - 79 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 82 - 66 94%
 Tue, Mar 3 337 @Jackson St. L 80 - 82 42%
 Thu, Mar 5 350 @Alcorn St. L 78 - 79 47%
Totals 11 - 18 10 - 7 -10 -5 C- D D -5 C- D- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 2.3 1.7 0.3 4.9 1st
2nd 0.4 4.7 4.2 0.8 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.7 7.4 1.5 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 1.0 9.8 3.1 0.1 14.0 4th
5th 0.1 5.7 7.4 0.4 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 9.9 1.6 12.9 6th
7th 0.1 5.2 5.7 0.1 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 6.8 0.9 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.2 2.7 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.4 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.5 7.5 16.3 23.1 22.9 16.1 8.1 2.6 0.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 92.0% 0.3    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 66.8% 1.7    0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 28.3% 2.3    0.3 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.4% 24.0% 24.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
13-5 2.6% 9.2% 9.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.3
12-6 8.1% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9 7.2
11-7 16.1% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 1.4 14.7
10-8 22.9% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 1.3 21.7
9-9 23.1% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 1.1 22.1
8-10 16.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 16.1
7-11 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
6-12 2.5% 2.5
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 16.0 94.8 0.0%