Colorado
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.1 #80
Expected Predictive Rating +6.9 #80
Pace 71.0 #122
Improvement -1.1 #239

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #59 B C B+ B C+
Defense #127 C+ C+ C- C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #34 1.26 #75 +6.1 #17
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #187 0.87 #49 +1.0 #126
Three Pointers 35% #310 1.11 #57 -1.4 #233
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #44 +5.6 #46
Freethrows 0.34 #86 77% #26 0.26 #40
Second Chance 32.5% #125 0.99 #243 0.32 #162
Turnovers 13.7% #37
Total Offense +5.9 #59

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #175 1.09 #95 +1.0 #138
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #52 0.81 #269 -2.4 #338
Three Pointers 36% #314 1.02 #180 +2.7 #77
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #138 +1.3 #136
Freethrows 0.29 #161 71% #87 0.21 #138
Second Chance 27.2% #67 1.09 #260 0.30 #118
Turnovers 15.7% #223
Total Defense +1.3 #127

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #114 -1.1% #83
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.9% #46 -1.4% #160
Possession Length 16.1 #64 17.8 #256
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #20 0.15 #116
Improvement -3.0 #336 +1.9 #68

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 7.9% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 7.8% 1.2%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 10.6
.500 or above 47.1% 78.5% 44.9%
.500 or above in Conference 1.9% 9.8% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.5% 3.9% 15.2%
First Four1.1% 4.8% 0.9%
First Round1.0% 5.0% 0.7%
Second Round0.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 6.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 10
Quad 24 - 56 - 15
Quad 36 - 011 - 15
Quad 44 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 155 Montana St. W 84 - 78 82% +1  1 - 0 +3 +11 A- C- B- -8 F+ A C
 Sat, Nov 8 241 Eastern Washington W 102 - 97 OT 91% +1  2 - 0 -2 +13 B+ D A+ -16 F A F
 Fri, Nov 14 66 Providence W 97 - 88 56% +4  3 - 0 +14 +11 B- A- B- +2 A A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 17 318 Alabama St. W 94 - 66 95% +19  4 - 0 +16 +14 B+ C B- +2 B C+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 181 UC Davis W 95 - 79 86% +6  5 - 0 +11 +20 A+ C+ A- -9 C F C
 Thu, Nov 27 98 San Francisco W 79 - 69 58% +1  6 - 0 +15 +10 B+ C B+ +5 C B B+
 Fri, Nov 28 46 Washington W 81 - 68 34% +9  7 - 0 +24 +15 A- A- C +10 A+ D- F
 Mon, Dec 1 140 California Baptist W 78 - 70 80% -2  8 - 0 +6 +8 B- B C -2 B B+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 102 @Colorado St. L 86 - 91 47% -4  8 - 1 +3 +18 A+ D+ A+ -15 F+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 341 Texas San Antonio W 88 - 64 97% +10  9 - 1 +9 +6 A+ F C +3 C C A-
 Wed, Dec 17 148 Portland St. W 84 - 73 81% +1  10 - 1 +9 +12 B C C+ -4 B F C
 Sat, Dec 20 84 Stanford L 68 - 77 51% -3  10 - 2 -2 -1 C+ C F -1 B+ C D+
 Sun, Dec 28 197 Northern Colorado L 81 - 86 87% -2  10 - 3 -10 +0 D D+ A+ -10 D- C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 77 @Arizona St. W 95 - 89 37% +6  11 - 3 1 - 0 +17 +13 B B- C+ +3 B+ B+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 104 Utah W 85 - 73 70% +6  12 - 3 2 - 0 +14 +10 B- C C +4 A+ D F+
 Sat, Jan 10 15 Texas Tech L 71 - 73 22% -9  12 - 4 2 - 1 +13 +6 C C- A+ +8 B+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 14 52 @Cincinnati L 68 - 77 27% -13  12 - 5 2 - 2 +4 +5 B+ B- F +0 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 57 @West Virginia L 61 - 72 29% -6  12 - 6 2 - 3 +2 +8 C- C- A+ -8 C- F C
 Tue, Jan 20 17 Kansas L 69 - 75 23% -4  12 - 7 2 - 4 +9 +7 C- B+ A+ +2 B C- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 49 Central Florida L 86 - 95 47% -3  12 - 8 2 - 5 -1 +15 A+ D A -16 F A- B-
 Thu, Jan 29 9 @Iowa St. L 70 - 86 6%
 Sun, Feb 1 45 TCU L 76 - 77 45%
 Wed, Feb 4 48 @Baylor L 77 - 84 26%
 Sat, Feb 7 77 Arizona St. W 83 - 80 60%
 Wed, Feb 11 15 @Texas Tech L 73 - 87 9%
 Sat, Feb 14 14 @BYU L 74 - 89 9%
 Sat, Feb 21 63 Oklahoma St. W 85 - 84 55%
 Wed, Feb 25 87 Kansas St. W 84 - 80 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 4 @Houston L 65 - 82 5%
 Tue, Mar 3 104 @Utah L 81 - 82 49%
 Sat, Mar 7 2 Arizona L 75 - 89 9%
Totals 15 - 16 5 - 13 +7 +6 B C B+ +1 C+ C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.3 2.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.1 3.8 6.6 1.6 0.1 12.1 10th
11th 0.0 2.1 10.0 3.6 0.1 15.9 11th
12th 0.4 8.7 7.3 0.7 17.1 12th
13th 0.1 3.6 10.4 1.8 0.0 15.8 13th
14th 0.0 1.1 8.9 4.2 0.2 14.3 14th
15th 0.2 4.1 5.0 0.4 9.7 15th
16th 1.6 3.1 0.9 5.6 16th
Total 1.7 8.4 18.8 25.9 23.3 14.0 6.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.3% 56.6% 56.6% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 56.6%
9-9 1.6% 41.7% 1.3% 40.4% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 41.0%
8-10 6.0% 9.8% 0.1% 9.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 5.5 9.7%
7-11 14.0% 1.4% 0.1% 1.3% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.8 1.3%
6-12 23.3% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 23.3 0.1%
5-13 25.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 25.9
4-14 18.8% 18.8
3-15 8.4% 8.4
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 10.6 98.4 1.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%