IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.7	#326
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.1	#313
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.8	#329

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.9	#300

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.6%	12.4%	4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	17.4	15.1	15.8

.500 or above	12.2%	42.5%	11.2%
.500 or above in Conference	63.7%	84.9%	63.1%
Conference Champion	9.1%	23.6%	8.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.9%	0.1%	1.0%

First Four	3.1%	3.8%	3.1%
First Round	3.6%	12.3%	3.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 2.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 8
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 13
Quad 4	10 - 9	11 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	78	@ Florida St.	L	59-79	3%
Nov 06, 2025	163	@ South Alabama	L	56-68	13%
Nov 08, 2025	87	@ Minnesota	L	53-72	4%
Nov 11, 2025	40	@ Maryland	L	55-81	1%
Nov 13, 2025	324	@ Howard	L	69-72	39%
Nov 18, 2025	52	@ LSU	L	57-80	2%
Nov 23, 2025	47	@ Oklahoma	L	58-82	2%
Nov 28, 2025	170	Indiana St.	L	69-78	22%
Nov 29, 2025	143	@ Louisiana Tech	L	56-70	11%
Dec 03, 2025	20	@ Iowa St.	L	53-82	1%
Dec 19, 2025	23	@ Baylor	L	52-80	1%
Dec 29, 2025	30	@ Mississippi	L	54-81	1%
Dec 31, 2025	186	Southern	L	64-69	34%
Jan 03, 2026	238	@ Jackson St.	L	64-72	24%
Jan 10, 2026	325	@ Alabama A&M	L	69-72	40%
Jan 12, 2026	292	@ Alabama St.	L	64-69	32%
Jan 17, 2026	285	Texas Southern	W	68-67	51%
Jan 19, 2026	341	Prairie View	W	72-67	65%
Jan 24, 2026	332	@ Florida A&M	L	66-68	42%
Jan 26, 2026	246	@ Bethune-Cookman	L	64-72	25%
Jan 31, 2026	186	Southern	L	64-69	34%
Feb 02, 2026	283	Grambling St.	W	63-62	50%
Feb 07, 2026	364	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	77-67	79%
Feb 09, 2026	365	@ Mississippi Valley	W	69-57	85%
Feb 14, 2026	246	Bethune-Cookman	L	67-69	43%
Feb 16, 2026	332	Florida A&M	W	69-65	61%
Feb 21, 2026	238	Jackson St.	L	67-69	42%
Feb 26, 2026	285	@ Texas Southern	L	65-71	32%
Feb 28, 2026	341	@ Prairie View	L	69-70	46%
Mar 03, 2026	365	Mississippi Valley	W	72-54	93%
Mar 05, 2026	364	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	80-64	90%
Projected Record						11 - 20	10 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.0	2.3	2.5	1.7	0.9	0.3		9.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	2.4	3.8	2.6	1.1	0.2	0.0			10.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.6	2.9	4.3	2.3	0.5	0.0					10.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.6	3.3	5.1	2.1	0.3	0.0						11.5	4th
5th								0.0	0.5	3.2	5.4	2.0	0.2	0.0							11.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.4	3.1	5.4	2.3	0.2									11.4	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	2.7	4.8	2.5	0.3										10.7	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	2.1	4.0	2.3	0.4											9.1	8th
9th				0.0	0.4	1.9	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.0											7.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.4	1.6	2.1	1.1	0.2	0.0												5.4	10th
11th		0.0	0.3	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.0														2.0	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0																0.4	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	2.7	4.7	6.8	9.2	11.1	12.1	11.9	10.8	9.3	7.4	5.4	3.7	1.9	1.0	0.3			Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	96.2%	0.9		0.9	0.1
16-2	89.3%	1.7		1.4	0.3	0.0
15-3	68.5%	2.5		1.7	0.8	0.1
14-4	42.9%	2.3		1.0	1.0	0.3	0.0
13-5	13.6%	1.0		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.6%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	9.0%	9.0		5.5	2.6	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		37.0%	37.0%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
17-1	1.0%		34.8%	34.8%		17.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.6
16-2	1.9%		28.3%	28.3%		17.9														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	1.3
15-3	3.7%		14.9%	14.9%		19.1														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	3.2
14-4	5.4%		13.3%	13.3%		18.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	4.7
13-5	7.4%		8.5%	8.5%		17.1																0.1	0.6	6.8
12-6	9.3%		6.4%	6.4%		16.4																0.0	0.6	8.7
11-7	10.8%		4.0%	4.0%		16.1																0.0	0.4	10.4
10-8	11.9%		2.8%	2.8%		16.0																	0.3	11.6
9-9	12.1%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.2	11.9
8-10	11.1%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	11.0
7-11	9.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.1
6-12	6.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.8
5-13	4.7%																							4.7
4-14	2.7%																							2.7
3-15	1.2%																							1.2
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		4.6%	4.6%	0.0%	17.2													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	4.0	95.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%