South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#179
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#125
Pace63.3#328
Improvement+1.4#87

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#198
First Shot-1.3#212
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#176
Layup/Dunks+5.6#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#335
Freethrows-0.7#223
Improvement+0.5#136

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#168
First Shot+2.0#109
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#310
Layups/Dunks+6.9#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.7#365
Freethrows+4.9#6
Improvement+0.9#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 11.5% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 14.2
.500 or above 93.8% 95.8% 84.7%
.500 or above in Conference 82.0% 85.9% 64.0%
Conference Champion 13.5% 15.3% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 1.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.6% 11.5% 6.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 82.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 35 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 167 @Toledo W 76-74 36%     1 - 0 +4.3 +8.1 -3.6
  Thu, Nov 6 330 Alcorn St. W 76-70 87%     2 - 0 -7.4 -5.0 -2.6
  Thu, Nov 13 323 Central Michigan W 66-64 79%     3 - 0 -7.7 -3.5 -3.9
  Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72-62 94%     4 - 0 -8.5 -5.1 -2.9
  Wed, Nov 19 254 @Jacksonville St. W 71-65 53%     5 - 0 +3.9 +3.4 +0.8
  Fri, Nov 21 119 @UAB L 72-80 24%     5 - 1 -1.8 +8.2 -10.8
  Sun, Nov 30 286 @Texas San Antonio W 82-58 60%     6 - 1 +20.1 +8.2 +11.6
  Tue, Dec 2 133 New Mexico St. W 77-75 38%     7 - 1 +3.7 +9.5 -5.7
  Fri, Dec 5 123 @East Tennessee St. L 65-91 24%     7 - 2 -20.1 -3.5 -17.2
  Sun, Dec 14 145 North Texas L 57-58 53%     7 - 3 -3.1 -8.0 +4.8
  Wed, Dec 17 358 @Louisiana Monroe W 76-66 83%    
  Sat, Dec 20 240 @Texas St. W 67-66 50%    
  Wed, Dec 31 325 @Louisiana W 66-61 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 143 @Troy L 67-72 31%    
  Sat, Jan 10 230 Georgia Southern W 77-71 70%    
  Thu, Jan 15 153 Arkansas St. W 75-74 55%    
  Sat, Jan 17 325 Louisiana W 69-58 85%    
  Thu, Jan 22 182 @James Madison L 68-71 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 161 @Marshall L 69-73 35%    
  Thu, Jan 29 244 Coastal Carolina W 72-66 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 334 Georgia St. W 75-63 87%    
  Wed, Feb 4 231 @Appalachian St. L 63-64 49%    
  Thu, Feb 12 201 @Southern Miss L 69-71 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 153 @Arkansas St. L 72-77 34%    
  Thu, Feb 19 240 Texas St. W 69-63 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 143 Troy W 70-69 52%    
  Wed, Feb 25 358 Louisiana Monroe W 79-63 92%    
  Fri, Feb 27 201 Southern Miss W 72-68 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.3 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 13.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.6 3.1 0.6 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.6 6.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.4 4.8 0.8 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 5.5 1.5 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.5 2.7 0.2 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.4 0.4 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.2 0.1 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.1 8.2 11.7 14.4 14.9 14.4 11.8 8.0 4.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 97.6% 1.8    1.6 0.2
15-3 86.0% 3.7    2.7 0.9 0.1
14-4 54.5% 4.3    1.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.1% 2.5    0.5 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.5% 13.5 7.6 3.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 66.7% 66.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.6% 46.2% 46.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.8% 38.8% 38.8% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1
15-3 4.3% 35.0% 35.0% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 2.8
14-4 8.0% 28.2% 28.2% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 5.7
13-5 11.8% 21.1% 21.1% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.0 9.3
12-6 14.4% 12.6% 12.6% 14.4 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 12.6
11-7 14.9% 5.5% 5.5% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 14.1
10-8 14.4% 2.8% 2.8% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 14.0
9-9 11.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.6
8-10 8.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.1
7-11 5.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 5.1
6-12 2.8% 2.8
5-13 1.3% 1.3
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.7 3.0 0.2 89.4 0.0%