South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 #192
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 #147
Pace 64.1 #305
Improvement +1.1 #136

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #239 D C- B+ C- B-
Defense #152 C D+ C A D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #9 1.08 #272 +3.8 #61
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #200 0.76 #174 -0.4 #193
Three Pointers 32% #336 0.80 #360 -7.9 #359
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #313 -4.5 #312
Freethrows 0.31 #162 66% #345 0.21 #224
Second Chance 24.8% #325 1.20 #28 0.30 #214
Turnovers 13.4% #28
Total Offense -2.5 #239

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% #364 1.30 #332 +8.3 #7
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #365 0.83 #295 +4.7 #1
Three Pointers 71% #1 0.95 #88 -12.9 #365
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #179 +0.1 #178
Freethrows 0.20 #3 77% #351 0.15 #9
Second Chance 32.4% #265 1.14 #300 0.37 #298
Turnovers 17.0% #148
Total Defense +0.5 #152

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #72 1.0% #257
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.3% #331 -1.0% #167
Possession Length 17.5 #192 18.3 #310
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #212 0.15 #112
Improvement -0.9 #231 +2.0 #64

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 12.0% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.4
.500 or above 98.9% 99.7% 97.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 96.7% 83.3%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.6% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.1% 12.0% 5.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 68.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 36 - 56 - 7
Quad 413 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 164 @Toledo W 76 - 74 33% +9  1 - 0 +5 +8 B+ B- C+ -4 F B- B-
 Thu, Nov 6 350 Alcorn St. W 76 - 70 89% -3  2 - 0 -9 -6 D+ C F+ -4 F A+ A
 Thu, Nov 13 302 Central Michigan W 66 - 64 73% +3  3 - 0 -6 -2 F B- B -4 B F C
 Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72 - 62 94% +5  4 - 0 -10 -6 F D- B- -3 A- F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 184 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 65 38% -6  5 - 0 +7 +4 C C- A+ +4 C C+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 118 @UAB L 72 - 80 23% -5  5 - 1 -2 +9 C+ D A+ -12 F C B
 Sun, Nov 30 341 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 58 74% +14  6 - 1 +15 +5 C- C C +10 A- C D
 Tue, Dec 2 154 New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 41% -1  7 - 1 +2 +7 D- C A -4 C C A
 Fri, Dec 5 130 @East Tennessee St. L 65 - 91 25% -5  7 - 2 -21 -4 C F B+ -18 C+ F F
 Sun, Dec 14 144 North Texas L 57 - 58 50% -4  7 - 3 -3 -6 F B A +3 A+ F+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 92 2OT 85% -7  8 - 3 1 - 0 -9 -2 D+ C+ D- -8 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 271 @Texas St. L 65 - 67 54% +6  8 - 4 1 - 1 -5 -3 F D+ C+ -2 B+ F C
 Wed, Dec 31 314 @Louisiana W 63 - 58 66% +2  9 - 4 2 - 1 -1 +6 D C+ D -6 C F D
 Sat, Jan 3 113 @Troy L 49 - 59 21% -5  9 - 5 2 - 2 -4 -12 F D C +7 A B C-
 Sat, Jan 10 245 Georgia Southern W 87 - 71 71% +9  10 - 5 3 - 2 +8 +5 A+ F C +3 B B- D+
 Thu, Jan 15 156 Arkansas St. W 91 - 87 OT 53% +0  11 - 5 4 - 2 +1 +2 D D A+ -2 C C B+
 Sat, Jan 17 314 Louisiana L 56 - 59 83% -1  11 - 6 4 - 3 -15 -8 F+ B- B+ -8 D C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 210 @James Madison W 90 - 83 42% +2  12 - 6 5 - 3 +7 +8 D- A+ A+ -2 D- D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 29 236 Coastal Carolina W 71 - 66 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 270 Georgia St. W 72 - 65 75%
 Wed, Feb 4 200 @Appalachian St. L 63 - 65 41%
 Sat, Feb 7 185 Buffalo W 74 - 71 60%
 Thu, Feb 12 259 @Southern Miss W 70 - 69 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 156 @Arkansas St. L 73 - 78 31%
 Mon, Feb 16 168 @Marshall L 70 - 74 34%
 Thu, Feb 19 271 Texas St. W 71 - 64 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 113 Troy L 69 - 71 41%
 Wed, Feb 25 361 Louisiana Monroe W 81 - 64 94%
 Fri, Feb 27 259 Southern Miss W 72 - 66 72%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 7 -2 -3 D C- B+ +0 C D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.5 3.4 1st
2nd 0.1 5.0 14.0 9.3 2.3 0.1 30.8 2nd
3rd 1.6 11.0 4.7 0.2 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 6.3 6.5 0.4 13.3 4th
5th 0.6 8.4 1.2 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 3.4 4.3 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.2 4.8 0.6 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.2 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 0.6 3.0 9th
10th 0.5 1.6 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 0.5 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.6 12.7 21.4 23.9 19.5 10.7 3.7 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 79.3% 0.5    0.2 0.3
14-4 36.4% 1.3    0.5 0.9 0.0
13-5 11.5% 1.2    0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 0.9 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.6% 36.4% 36.4% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-4 3.7% 27.1% 27.1% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7
13-5 10.7% 23.0% 23.0% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 8.3
12-6 19.5% 17.9% 17.9% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.4 0.1 16.0
11-7 23.9% 8.9% 8.9% 14.6 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.1 21.8
10-8 21.4% 3.0% 3.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 20.8
9-9 12.7% 1.1% 1.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.6
8-10 5.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
7-11 1.7% 1.7
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 14.2 89.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.6 52.9 29.4 17.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%