Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.9#4
Expected Predictive Rating+28.3#2
Pace72.3#109
Improvement+1.3#95

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#11
First Shot+10.6#4
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#175
Layup/Dunks+5.5#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#73
Freethrows+0.8#123
Improvement-1.0#259

Defense
Total Defense+11.2#3
First Shot+10.9#6
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#165
Layups/Dunks+6.2#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#137
Freethrows+4.3#7
Improvement+2.3#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.4% 9.4% 8.7%
#1 Seed 40.7% 40.7% 28.3%
Top 2 Seed 74.1% 74.1% 58.7%
Top 4 Seed 95.9% 95.9% 84.8%
Top 6 Seed 99.4% 99.4% 97.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.0 2.0 2.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.1% 97.8%
Conference Champion 36.7% 36.7% 30.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.6% 97.6% 91.3%
Sweet Sixteen75.1% 75.2% 52.2%
Elite Eight49.4% 49.4% 26.1%
Final Four28.3% 28.3% 21.7%
Championship Game15.1% 15.1% 8.7%
National Champion7.6% 7.6% 2.2%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 4
Quad 29 - 120 - 5
Quad 32 - 022 - 5
Quad 47 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 88-50 99.8%    1 - 0 +20.1 +4.4 +15.3
  Thu, Nov 6 284 Grambling St. W 102-62 99%     2 - 0 +30.3 +20.1 +7.6
  Mon, Nov 10 80 Mississippi St. W 96-80 91%     3 - 0 +23.4 +19.3 +2.8
  Mon, Nov 17 341 Stonehill W 96-57 99.6%    4 - 0 +24.8 +17.7 +6.8
  Mon, Nov 24 16 St. John's W 83-82 67%     5 - 0 +18.3 +20.2 -1.9
  Tue, Nov 25 59 Creighton W 78-60 88%     6 - 0 +27.3 +11.0 +16.8
  Wed, Nov 26 68 Syracuse W 95-64 90%     7 - 0 +39.0 +24.4 +13.8
  Wed, Dec 3 330 Alcorn St. W 132-68 99.6%    8 - 0 +50.6 +36.2 +6.2
  Sat, Dec 6 7 @Purdue W 81-58 43%     9 - 0 +46.6 +22.9 +25.3
  Thu, Dec 11 20 Iowa W 66-62 81%     10 - 0 +16.7 +7.9 +9.4
  Sun, Dec 14 333 Eastern Illinois W 78-53 99.6%    11 - 0 +11.5 +0.5 +10.9
  Sun, Dec 21 277 Long Beach St. W 90-59 99.8%   
  Mon, Dec 29 274 Houston Christian W 88-57 99.8%   
  Fri, Jan 2 64 West Virginia W 78-62 94%    
  Wed, Jan 7 32 @Baylor W 83-77 70%    
  Sat, Jan 10 53 Oklahoma St. W 90-75 91%    
  Tue, Jan 13 17 @Kansas W 73-71 58%    
  Sat, Jan 17 78 @Cincinnati W 78-67 85%    
  Tue, Jan 20 57 Central Florida W 88-73 92%    
  Sat, Jan 24 53 @Oklahoma St. W 87-78 78%    
  Thu, Jan 29 62 Colorado W 87-71 93%    
  Sun, Feb 1 67 @Kansas St. W 87-76 84%    
  Sat, Feb 7 32 Baylor W 86-74 85%    
  Tue, Feb 10 49 @TCU W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 17 Kansas W 76-68 77%    
  Mon, Feb 16 8 Houston W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 9 @BYU L 75-76 48%    
  Tue, Feb 24 120 @Utah W 86-70 92%    
  Sat, Feb 28 24 Texas Tech W 81-71 82%    
  Mon, Mar 2 3 @Arizona L 76-80 38%    
  Sat, Mar 7 61 Arizona St. W 85-69 92%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.8 10.0 12.5 7.8 2.1 36.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.1 9.8 8.0 2.5 0.2 25.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 7.3 4.5 0.9 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.9 0.3 5.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.1 6.2 10.2 15.4 18.7 18.9 15.0 8.0 2.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
17-1 97.7% 7.8    7.0 0.8 0.0
16-2 82.9% 12.5    8.6 3.7 0.2
15-3 52.7% 10.0    4.3 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 20.2% 3.8    0.8 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.6% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 36.7% 36.7 22.9 10.6 2.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.1% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 1.1 1.9 0.2 100.0%
17-1 8.0% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.2 6.5 1.5 0.0 100.0%
16-2 15.0% 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 1.3 10.5 4.3 0.3 100.0%
15-3 18.9% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.5 10.6 7.4 1.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 18.7% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.8 7.0 9.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.4% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 2.2 3.2 6.8 4.3 1.1 0.1 100.0%
12-6 10.2% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 2.8 0.8 3.3 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 6.2% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 3.4 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 3.1% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 4.1 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
9-9 1.4% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.5% 100.0% 1.3% 98.8% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.2% 98.5% 1.5% 97.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
6-12 0.1% 95.5% 4.5% 90.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.2%
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 25.9% 74.0% 2.0 40.7 33.4 15.1 6.7 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.1 92.2 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 91.7 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 86.2 13.8