Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.9 #209
Expected Predictive Rating -2.0 #201
Pace 60.6 #357
Improvement +2.6 #69

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #295 D- C- C- D C
Defense #121 B D+ C C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #60 0.99 #345 -0.8 #208
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #127 0.77 #145 +1.5 #101
Three Pointers 34% #320 0.84 #352 -6.7 #348
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #345 -6.1 #339
Freethrows 0.28 #256 65% #352 0.18 #308
Second Chance 32.9% #115 0.87 #355 0.29 #251
Turnovers 17.0% #220
Total Offense -4.5 #295

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 1.00 #23 +4.8 #43
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #337 0.75 #153 +2.4 #22
Three Pointers 50% #11 0.96 #96 -3.1 #309
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #62 +4.2 #59
Freethrows 0.31 #220 73% #204 0.23 #225
Second Chance 33.7% #304 1.08 #233 0.36 #287
Turnovers 16.7% #159
Total Defense +1.6 #121

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #188 1.0% #259
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.7% #349 -8.6% #41
Possession Length 18.7 #306 18.2 #304
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #221 0.12 #44
Improvement +3.3 #32 -0.7 #233

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.9% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 39.3% 62.6% 33.8%
.500 or above in Conference 47.3% 72.0% 41.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.1% 2.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round2.4% 3.9% 2.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Away) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 94 - 13
Quad 411 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 74 @Nevada L 50 - 77 11% -16  0 - 1 -16 -12 F D F+ -7 B- F B
 Sat, Nov 15 337 Jackson St. W 68 - 51 85% +3  1 - 1 +3 -10 F D D- +13 A+ D+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 196 @Indiana St. L 51 - 60 36% -5  1 - 2 -8 -22 F D- D+ +14 A+ B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 196 Indiana St. W 75 - 73 59% +1  2 - 2 -3 +3 B- A F -6 D+ B D-
 Sat, Nov 29 350 Alcorn St. W 83 - 58 88% +10  3 - 2 +10 +12 C- A A -0 B- B- C
 Wed, Dec 3 245 @Georgia Southern L 69 - 77 45% -4  3 - 3 -10 -3 C+ F B- -7 F+ D- B-
 Sat, Dec 13 314 Louisiana W 65 - 44 81% +11  4 - 3 +9 -1 D- B+ F +13 B+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 175 @Tulane L 53 - 61 33% -6  4 - 4 -6 -9 F F F +1 A+ F D
 Mon, Dec 29 266 UTEP W 75 - 63 72% +11  5 - 4 1 - 0 +3 +6 B F A- -1 A F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 142 @Middle Tennessee L 51 - 88 25% -19  5 - 5 1 - 1 -33 -8 D+ D- F -32 F B D-
 Sun, Jan 4 166 @Western Kentucky L 61 - 66 30% -7  5 - 6 1 - 2 -3 -4 F B- A- +2 A+ D C
 Thu, Jan 8 94 Liberty L 56 - 72 30% -8  5 - 7 1 - 3 -13 -10 D F A+ -6 A- F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 278 Delaware W 70 - 68 OT 74% -5  6 - 7 2 - 3 -8 -3 F+ C C- -5 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 14 142 Middle Tennessee W 59 - 58 46% -10  7 - 7 3 - 3 -1 -9 F F+ A +8 A+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 184 @Jacksonville St. L 60 - 64 35% -10  7 - 8 3 - 4 -3 +1 D- B+ C- -4 C D+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 153 Kennesaw St. W 82 - 76 49% -2  8 - 8 4 - 4 +3 +12 A A- D+ -9 B- D D
 Wed, Jan 28 266 @UTEP W 69 - 59 50% +6  9 - 8 5 - 4 +7 +2 D A- F +6 A+ C+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 115 @Sam Houston St. L 64 - 73 19%
 Wed, Feb 4 154 New Mexico St. L 66 - 67 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 115 Sam Houston St. L 67 - 70 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 183 @Missouri St. L 62 - 66 35%
 Sat, Feb 14 190 @Florida International L 68 - 72 35%
 Wed, Feb 18 184 Jacksonville St. W 64 - 62 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 153 @Kennesaw St. L 68 - 74 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 183 Missouri St. W 65 - 63 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 190 Florida International W 71 - 69 57%
 Thu, Mar 5 94 @Liberty L 60 - 72 14%
 Sat, Mar 7 278 @Delaware W 62 - 61 52%
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 11 -3 -5 D- C- C- +2 B D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 3.5 1.4 0.1 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.6 2.7 0.2 9.9 4th
5th 0.6 5.9 5.3 0.5 12.3 5th
6th 0.2 4.5 8.4 1.8 0.0 14.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 9.5 3.5 0.1 15.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 7.4 6.0 0.5 14.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 4.3 5.6 0.8 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 3.9 1.2 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.8 3.8 9.9 16.8 21.4 19.8 14.7 8.1 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 25.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 21.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 8.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 1.0% 13.2% 13.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-7 3.5% 7.9% 7.9% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2
12-8 8.1% 6.8% 6.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 7.6
11-9 14.7% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 14.1
10-10 19.8% 2.1% 2.1% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 19.4
9-11 21.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 21.1
8-12 16.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 16.6
7-13 9.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.9
6-14 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-15 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 14.5 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%