Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#104
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#169
Pace81.8#8
Improvement-7.3#365

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#116
First Shot+0.9#145
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#98
Layup/Dunks+1.9#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#55
Freethrows-1.4#268
Improvement-2.3#332

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#106
First Shot+0.1#169
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#61
Layups/Dunks+0.5#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#279
Freethrows+0.9#129
Improvement-5.0#365
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 1.3% 0.3%
Average Seed 9.9 9.7 10.2
.500 or above 13.7% 25.9% 9.4%
.500 or above in Conference 10.3% 14.5% 8.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.0% 13.9% 19.4%
First Four0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 1.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 26.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 12
Quad 22 - 54 - 17
Quad 32 - 26 - 19
Quad 47 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 330 Alcorn St. W 108-76 94%     1 - 0 +18.6 +20.9 -4.7
  Fri, Nov 7 265 Alabama St. W 101-64 88%     2 - 0 +28.4 +11.4 +13.1
  Tue, Nov 11 13 @Florida L 76-78 7%     2 - 1 +18.9 +4.0 +15.1
  Tue, Nov 18 252 Tennessee Martin W 87-73 87%     3 - 1 +5.9 +5.6 -0.7
  Fri, Nov 21 230 Georgia Southern W 98-72 85%     4 - 1 +19.0 +4.8 +10.1
  Tue, Nov 25 311 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89-59 92%     5 - 1 +18.3 -1.3 +15.5
  Fri, Nov 28 45 Texas A&M L 59-95 24%     5 - 2 -24.7 -13.5 -8.5
  Tue, Dec 2 19 Georgia L 73-107 20%     5 - 3 -21.0 -2.1 -15.3
  Sat, Dec 6 8 Houston L 67-82 8%     5 - 4 +4.9 +5.7 -0.9
  Sat, Dec 13 152 Massachusetts L 95-103 64%     5 - 5 -7.5 +10.2 -16.6
  Tue, Dec 16 73 @Dayton L 76-83 26%    
  Fri, Dec 19 365 Mississippi Valley W 93-63 99.7%   
  Mon, Dec 22 305 Jacksonville W 85-70 92%    
  Tue, Dec 30 23 @North Carolina L 75-89 9%    
  Sat, Jan 3 2 Duke L 70-86 7%    
  Sat, Jan 10 29 North Carolina St. L 81-88 26%    
  Tue, Jan 13 68 @Syracuse L 76-83 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 42 Wake Forest L 80-85 34%    
  Tue, Jan 20 33 @Miami (FL) L 76-88 13%    
  Sat, Jan 24 38 @SMU L 78-89 16%    
  Wed, Jan 28 81 California L 80-81 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 92 Stanford W 83-82 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 55 @Notre Dame L 72-81 22%    
  Tue, Feb 10 26 Virginia L 77-85 24%    
  Sat, Feb 14 63 @Virginia Tech L 78-86 25%    
  Tue, Feb 17 148 Boston College W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 35 @Clemson L 70-82 15%    
  Tue, Feb 24 33 Miami (FL) L 79-85 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 130 @Georgia Tech L 78-79 47%    
  Wed, Mar 4 107 @Pittsburgh L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Mar 7 38 SMU L 81-86 32%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.0 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.3 2.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.1 2.2 4.4 1.1 0.0 7.8 12th
13th 0.0 1.4 5.1 3.2 0.2 10.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.8 4.7 5.3 0.9 0.0 11.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 4.0 6.6 2.0 0.1 13.2 15th
16th 0.4 3.3 6.5 3.1 0.3 0.0 13.7 16th
17th 0.3 2.8 5.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 12.7 17th
18th 0.6 2.6 3.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.5 18th
Total 0.6 2.9 6.9 11.6 15.3 16.4 15.3 12.2 8.5 5.2 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 20.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 8.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 69.6% 69.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.6%
13-5 0.3% 67.1% 2.5% 64.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 66.2%
12-6 0.6% 26.1% 1.2% 24.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 25.2%
11-7 1.4% 10.2% 0.7% 9.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 9.6%
10-8 2.8% 1.7% 0.4% 1.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 1.3%
9-9 5.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.4%
8-10 8.5% 8.5
7-11 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 12.2
6-12 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 15.3
5-13 16.4% 16.4
4-14 15.3% 15.3
3-15 11.6% 11.6
2-16 6.9% 6.9
1-17 2.9% 2.9
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 99.4 0.6%