Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.4 #105
Expected Predictive Rating +2.8 #120
Pace 77.1 #20
Improvement -1.3 #250

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #110 C B B C- B
Defense #110 C C+ B+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #193 1.22 #105 +0.9 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #332 0.70 #276 -3.4 #335
Three Pointers 50% #30 0.93 #291 +2.2 #112
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #187 -0.3 #187
Freethrows 0.29 #237 72% #214 0.21 #223
Second Chance 33.3% #105 1.18 #38 0.39 #48
Turnovers 14.2% #49
Total Offense +2.4 #110

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #311 1.16 #178 +2.7 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.75 #162 -0.1 #188
Three Pointers 45% #62 1.01 #172 -2.1 #282
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #165 +0.5 #165
Freethrows 0.28 #119 72% #167 0.20 #121
Second Chance 30.9% #197 0.99 #98 0.30 #138
Turnovers 19.9% #28
Total Defense +2.0 #110

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #57 -0.7% #104
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.6% #220 -0.2% #183
Possession Length 14.5 #5 17.9 #274
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #165 0.17 #170
Improvement -0.7 #225 -0.6 #223

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.0 10.2 13.0
.500 or above 3.5% 5.9% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 2.9% 5.0% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.7% 13.0% 33.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Home) - 52.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 11
Quad 23 - 64 - 17
Quad 31 - 26 - 19
Quad 47 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 350 Alcorn St. W 108 - 76 96% +17  1 - 0 +17 +20 B B- A+ -6 F D A+
 Fri, Nov 7 318 Alabama St. W 101 - 64 93% +20  2 - 0 +25 +11 D A+ D+ +10 A+ D+ A
 Tue, Nov 11 5 @Florida L 76 - 78 4% -1  2 - 1 +22 +5 D+ B- A- +17 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 231 Tennessee Martin W 87 - 73 86% +19  3 - 1 +7 +7 B- D- A+ -1 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 245 Georgia Southern W 98 - 72 87% +14  4 - 1 +18 +4 C- C A+ +10 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 301 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89 - 59 92% +13  5 - 1 +19 -1 D+ B- D- +15 A- D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 30 Texas A&M L 59 - 95 17% -22  5 - 2 -21 -12 F C+ C- -7 C- F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 29 Georgia L 73 - 107 24% -19  5 - 3 -22 -3 C C- A -15 F+ F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 4 Houston L 67 - 82 7% -10  5 - 4 +6 +5 C A+ F+ +1 F+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 171 Massachusetts L 95 - 103 70% -5  5 - 5 -9 +9 B+ C- B- -17 F F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 85 @Dayton L 69 - 97 30% -13  5 - 6 -18 -4 D+ C- D- -12 C- B- C-
 Fri, Dec 19 365 Mississippi Valley W 96 - 49 99% +32  6 - 6 +20 +8 D C B +9 A- B A+
 Mon, Dec 22 285 Jacksonville W 87 - 63 91% +18  7 - 6 +14 +17 C A A- -1 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 28 @North Carolina L 66 - 79 11% -7  7 - 7 0 - 1 +5 +0 D A- C+ +5 A B- D+
 Sat, Jan 3 3 Duke L 87 - 91 8% -0  7 - 8 0 - 2 +17 +25 A+ A+ B- -8 D+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 24 North Carolina St. L 69 - 113 21% -24  7 - 9 0 - 3 -31 -5 F+ A- A -22 F F C-
 Tue, Jan 13 76 @Syracuse L 86 - 94 28% -1  7 - 10 0 - 4 +3 +15 B+ A+ C- -12 F D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 68 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 47% +3  7 - 11 0 - 5 +4 +2 D+ A D- +2 B+ D+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 40 @Miami (FL) W 65 - 63 14% +0  8 - 11 1 - 5 +18 +1 B F C+ +17 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 37 @SMU L 80 - 83 13% -4  8 - 12 1 - 6 +14 +15 B- B+ A+ -1 B- A- F+
 Wed, Jan 28 69 California W 63 - 61 47% +5  9 - 12 2 - 6 +7 -4 C F A+ +12 A+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 31 84 Stanford W 79 - 78 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 81 @Notre Dame L 72 - 78 30%
 Tue, Feb 10 22 Virginia L 73 - 82 19%
 Sat, Feb 14 59 @Virginia Tech L 75 - 83 23%
 Tue, Feb 17 132 Boston College W 76 - 70 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 32 @Clemson L 66 - 79 11%
 Tue, Feb 24 40 Miami (FL) L 78 - 83 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 111 @Georgia Tech L 79 - 81 42%
 Wed, Mar 4 92 @Pittsburgh L 74 - 78 34%
 Sat, Mar 7 37 SMU L 80 - 86 28%
Totals 12 - 19 5 - 13 +4 +2 C B B +2 C C+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.8 2.5 0.4 4.7 10th
11th 0.9 5.0 1.5 0.0 7.4 11th
12th 0.1 4.7 4.6 0.3 9.6 12th
13th 0.0 1.8 8.6 1.9 0.0 12.3 13th
14th 0.2 7.1 5.9 0.2 13.4 14th
15th 0.0 2.6 9.9 1.5 0.0 14.0 15th
16th 0.4 7.3 5.0 0.1 12.8 16th
17th 0.0 2.9 7.5 0.9 11.3 17th
18th 2.0 5.3 2.1 0.1 9.5 18th
Total 2.0 8.6 19.8 24.7 21.7 13.9 6.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.5 2.0%
9-9 2.3% 2.3
8-10 6.4% 6.4
7-11 13.9% 13.9
6-12 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 21.7
5-13 24.7% 24.7
4-14 19.8% 19.8
3-15 8.6% 8.6
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.0%