Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#265
Expected Predictive Rating-7.6#281
Pace68.9#198
Improvement+1.4#89

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#194
First Shot+0.9#146
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#298
Layup/Dunks-0.2#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#114
Freethrows-1.4#267
Improvement+3.0#20

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#325
First Shot-3.5#296
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#272
Layups/Dunks+0.9#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#337
Freethrows+1.0#122
Improvement-1.6#298
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 18.5% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 31.9% 58.1% 30.2%
.500 or above in Conference 82.6% 91.7% 82.0%
Conference Champion 15.1% 23.1% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four8.2% 7.3% 8.2%
First Round9.4% 14.7% 9.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 6.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 31 - 32 - 9
Quad 413 - 814 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 104 @Florida St. L 64-101 12%     0 - 1 -29.9 -12.2 -13.8
  Tue, Nov 11 119 @UAB W 77-74 14%     1 - 1 +9.2 +1.7 +7.3
  Mon, Nov 17 62 @Colorado L 66-94 6%     1 - 2 -16.2 -4.6 -11.2
  Wed, Nov 19 324 @Air Force L 64-66 54%     1 - 3 -8.7 -6.6 -2.2
  Fri, Nov 21 355 IU Indianapolis W 101-80 79%     2 - 3 +6.9 +7.0 -2.7
  Sun, Nov 23 232 SIU Edwardsville L 68-83 44%     2 - 4 -19.0 -0.9 -18.9
  Wed, Nov 26 71 @New Mexico L 87-93 7%     2 - 5 +4.9 +16.7 -11.6
  Sun, Dec 7 252 @Tennessee Martin L 64-74 37%     2 - 6 -12.1 -4.2 -8.5
  Thu, Dec 11 48 @Missouri L 77-85 4%     2 - 7 +6.0 +18.1 -13.0
  Wed, Dec 17 78 @Cincinnati L 65-81 6%    
  Mon, Dec 22 75 @Memphis L 68-84 6%    
  Mon, Dec 29 80 @Mississippi St. L 68-84 7%    
  Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 81-67 90%    
  Mon, Jan 5 351 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 81-77 65%    
  Sat, Jan 10 315 Jackson St. W 77-70 72%    
  Mon, Jan 12 330 Alcorn St. W 80-72 77%    
  Sat, Jan 17 290 Alabama A&M W 75-70 66%    
  Sat, Jan 24 326 @Prairie View W 78-77 55%    
  Mon, Jan 26 318 @Texas Southern W 77-76 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 227 Bethune-Cookman W 75-74 54%    
  Mon, Feb 2 343 Florida A&M W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 284 @Grambling St. L 70-72 44%    
  Mon, Feb 9 203 @Southern L 76-82 30%    
  Sat, Feb 14 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-74 82%    
  Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 84-64 96%    
  Thu, Feb 19 343 @Florida A&M W 77-74 60%    
  Thu, Feb 19 227 @Bethune-Cookman L 72-77 34%    
  Sat, Feb 28 290 @Alabama A&M L 72-73 45%    
  Tue, Mar 3 203 Southern W 80-79 51%    
  Thu, Mar 5 284 Grambling St. W 73-69 64%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.7 4.8 3.6 1.5 0.3 15.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.1 6.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.4 6.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.4 5.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.3 3.4 5.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.8 1.9 0.1 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.2 0.2 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.0 8.1 11.5 14.5 15.6 15.2 11.8 8.0 4.2 1.5 0.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 97.2% 1.5    1.4 0.1
15-3 86.1% 3.6    2.6 0.9 0.1
14-4 60.3% 4.8    2.7 1.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 31.0% 3.7    1.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.7% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.1% 15.1 8.2 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.3% 44.6% 44.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.5% 33.0% 33.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0
15-3 4.2% 30.1% 30.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.9
14-4 8.0% 26.1% 26.1% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.6 5.9
13-5 11.8% 20.1% 20.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.1 9.4
12-6 15.2% 14.7% 14.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.1 12.9
11-7 15.6% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 13.6
10-8 14.5% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4 13.2
9-9 11.5% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.8 10.8
8-10 8.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.3 7.8
7-11 5.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.0
6-12 2.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.7 11.1 86.9 0.0%