Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #288
Expected Predictive Rating -6.6 #272
Pace 68.5 #188
Improvement -2.7 #304

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #316 D+ D+ F B+ C
Defense #230 D D B+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #81 1.12 #224 +1.3 #127
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #152 0.64 #333 -0.8 #222
Three Pointers 36% #286 0.98 #231 -3.2 #290
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #252 -2.6 #252
Freethrows 0.37 #13 72% #190 0.27 #24
Second Chance 28.5% #241 0.93 #321 0.27 #284
Turnovers 20.9% #360
Total Offense -5.6 #316

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #82 1.25 #289 -4.0 #311
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #313 0.76 #176 +1.8 #59
Three Pointers 42% #159 1.08 #275 -1.8 #271
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #308 -4.1 #308
Freethrows 0.34 #284 75% #291 0.25 #298
Second Chance 35.3% #329 1.08 #232 0.38 #317
Turnovers 20.1% #24
Total Defense -1.7 #230

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #181 1.8% #330
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #263 6.2% #297
Possession Length 17.4 #174 17.2 #150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #72 0.23 #345
Improvement -3.1 #335 +0.3 #172

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 12.8% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 38.3% 45.7% 20.9%
.500 or above in Conference 68.1% 76.0% 49.3%
Conference Champion 9.3% 11.6% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.9% 8.7% 6.0%
First Round7.3% 8.4% 4.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 70.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 414 - 1014 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 8 @Iowa St. L 62 - 102 1% -16  0 - 1 -16 -3 C D D -11 D D+ C+
 Sun, Nov 9 275 @Howard W 73 - 70 35% +1  1 - 1 -0 +8 B- A- F -8 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 264 Southern Miss W 75 - 70 54% +6  2 - 1 -3 +0 A D- F -3 A+ F D+
 Tue, Nov 18 211 @San Diego L 68 - 78 24% -7  2 - 2 -10 -9 F D+ C- -1 B B A-
 Fri, Nov 21 139 @California Baptist L 59 - 72 14% -13  2 - 3 -9 -5 C F F -5 F B- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 291 @UC Riverside L 74 - 83 39% +1  2 - 4 -13 +0 F C B+ -14 F D+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 173 @Tulane L 63 - 65 19% -0  2 - 5 -0 -0 D B F -0 B D D
 Mon, Dec 8 264 @Southern Miss L 60 - 68 32% +1  2 - 6 -10 -11 D F F +1 D- C A+
 Thu, Dec 18 294 Norfolk St. W 80 - 68 51% +14  3 - 6 +4 +1 C F A +3 B D+ C
 Fri, Dec 19 236 Hampton W 81 - 72 38% +7  4 - 6 +5 +12 B A+ F -6 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 35 @Ohio St. L 63 - 89 2% -13  4 - 7 -9 -1 D B F -9 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 3 333 Prairie View W 76 - 72 73% +4  5 - 7 1 - 0 -10 -7 C- C- F -3 C+ D- A+
 Mon, Jan 5 325 Texas Southern W 84 - 67 72% +9  6 - 7 2 - 0 +4 +4 B B- D -1 A- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 249 @Bethune-Cookman L 65 - 74 30% -8  6 - 8 2 - 1 -11 -13 D+ F F +2 B- F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 313 @Florida A&M L 84 - 91 46% -3  6 - 9 2 - 2 -13 +7 C B C+ -20 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 256 Southern L 53 - 71 53% -11  6 - 10 2 - 3 -26 -22 F C F -5 D- B+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 323 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79 - 73 70%
 Sat, Jan 31 337 @Jackson St. W 75 - 74 53%
 Mon, Feb 2 350 @Alcorn St. W 73 - 71 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 298 Alabama St. W 76 - 72 63%
 Mon, Feb 9 310 Alabama A&M W 72 - 68 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 325 @Texas Southern L 74 - 75 50%
 Mon, Feb 16 333 @Prairie View W 76 - 75 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 256 @Southern L 70 - 75 31%
 Mon, Feb 23 365 Mississippi Valley W 77 - 57 97%
 Thu, Feb 26 249 Bethune-Cookman W 73 - 72 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 313 Florida A&M W 72 - 67 68%
 Tue, Mar 3 310 @Alabama A&M L 69 - 71 44%
 Thu, Mar 5 298 @Alabama St. L 73 - 75 41%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -7 -6 D+ D+ F -2 D D B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.9 3.5 3.4 1.3 0.2 9.3 1st
2nd 0.4 5.2 4.6 1.1 0.1 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.9 6.4 1.3 0.1 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 8.1 2.8 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 4.6 5.5 0.3 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 7.8 1.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 4.3 3.9 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 6.1 0.6 8.4 8th
9th 0.5 3.8 2.8 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.4 0.5 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.2 0.8 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 4.9 9.7 14.8 17.9 19.0 15.5 9.5 4.6 1.3 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2
14-4 93.7% 1.3    1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 75.4% 3.4    1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 36.8% 3.5    0.7 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0
11-7 5.7% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.3% 9.3 3.7 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 27.3% 27.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.3% 27.2% 27.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.0
13-5 4.6% 25.8% 25.8% 15.8 0.2 0.9 3.4
12-6 9.5% 20.1% 20.1% 15.9 0.2 1.8 7.6
11-7 15.5% 17.0% 17.0% 16.0 0.1 2.6 12.9
10-8 19.0% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.0 2.6 16.4
9-9 17.9% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 1.9 16.0
8-10 14.8% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.7 14.2
7-11 9.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.6
6-12 4.9% 4.9
5-13 2.0% 2.0
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 15.9 88.7 0.0%