Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#201
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#205
Pace69.0#196
Improvement+1.4#82

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#183
First Shot-0.7#192
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#188
Layup/Dunks+3.4#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.6#359
Freethrows+1.2#103
Improvement-1.9#315

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#240
First Shot-3.8#305
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#59
Layups/Dunks+0.5#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#344
Freethrows+0.0#178
Improvement+3.3#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 7.4% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.8
.500 or above 53.2% 57.6% 31.9%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 75.9% 49.7%
Conference Champion 8.3% 9.5% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.7% 3.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round6.7% 7.3% 3.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Home) - 82.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 412 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 216 @Buffalo L 79-85 41%     0 - 1 -6.4 +8.5 -15.3
  Sun, Nov 9 87 @South Carolina L 79-83 OT 14%     0 - 2 +5.1 +5.7 -0.3
  Thu, Nov 13 284 @Grambling St. L 70-75 54%     0 - 3 -8.7 -2.0 -6.7
  Sat, Nov 22 344 North Florida W 92-83 80%     1 - 3 -2.6 +9.3 -12.1
  Sun, Nov 23 252 Tennessee Martin W 70-60 59%     2 - 3 +4.9 +14.2 -6.8
  Wed, Dec 3 255 @Radford W 82-75 48%     3 - 3 +4.8 +2.0 +2.4
  Sat, Dec 6 33 @Miami (FL) L 64-88 5%     3 - 4 -7.8 -3.3 -3.2
  Mon, Dec 8 284 Grambling St. W 68-60 75%     4 - 4 -1.7 -6.1 +4.5
  Sat, Dec 13 60 Mississippi L 67-71 13%     4 - 5 +5.2 +2.3 +2.7
  Thu, Dec 18 325 Louisiana W 72-62 83%    
  Sat, Dec 20 153 Arkansas St. L 78-79 50%    
  Mon, Dec 29 34 @LSU L 66-85 4%    
  Thu, Jan 1 358 @Louisiana Monroe W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 325 @Louisiana W 69-65 64%    
  Thu, Jan 8 240 Texas St. W 73-68 67%    
  Sat, Jan 10 358 Louisiana Monroe W 83-68 91%    
  Wed, Jan 14 143 @Troy L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 240 @Texas St. L 70-71 45%    
  Thu, Jan 22 334 @Georgia St. W 76-71 67%    
  Sat, Jan 24 244 @Coastal Carolina L 73-74 46%    
  Thu, Jan 29 231 Appalachian St. W 69-65 65%    
  Sat, Jan 31 182 James Madison W 75-73 57%    
  Wed, Feb 4 161 @Marshall L 73-79 29%    
  Thu, Feb 12 179 South Alabama W 71-69 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 143 Troy L 73-74 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 215 Old Dominion W 77-73 63%    
  Tue, Feb 24 153 @Arkansas St. L 76-82 29%    
  Fri, Feb 27 179 @South Alabama L 68-72 34%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.4 4.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.0 3.2 0.3 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.3 4.7 0.7 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 5.7 1.5 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.2 2.7 0.1 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.8 3.8 0.5 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.0 1.2 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.4 1.7 0.1 6.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.6 0.2 4.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 4.8 7.9 11.1 13.6 14.6 14.0 11.9 8.3 5.1 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.6% 0.2    0.2
16-2 98.7% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-3 85.0% 2.2    1.6 0.6 0.0
14-4 55.2% 2.8    1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.0% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.4 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 43.2% 43.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
16-2 1.0% 40.1% 40.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6
15-3 2.6% 31.3% 31.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.8
14-4 5.1% 23.7% 23.7% 14.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 3.9
13-5 8.3% 18.3% 18.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 6.8
12-6 11.9% 11.3% 11.3% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 10.6
11-7 14.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 13.3
10-8 14.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 14.3
9-9 13.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.4
8-10 11.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 11.0
7-11 7.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.9
6-12 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 2.8% 2.8
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.0 0.7 93.3 0.0%