Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.3 #175
Expected Predictive Rating -0.2 #164
Pace 67.0 #229
Improvement +2.5 #78

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #179 C- D B A- C-
Defense #204 C- D+ C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #289 1.20 #122 -1.4 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.70 #267 -0.4 #196
Three Pointers 44% #116 0.91 #308 -0.5 #202
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #247 -2.4 #247
Freethrows 0.36 #28 77% #34 0.28 #14
Second Chance 21.3% #356 1.17 #41 0.25 #319
Turnovers 13.9% #40
Total Offense -0.5 #179

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #235 1.12 #131 +1.7 #119
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.79 #240 -0.3 #205
Three Pointers 43% #119 1.12 #311 -3.3 #313
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #239 -1.8 #237
Freethrows 0.32 #227 69% #55 0.22 #192
Second Chance 34.0% #312 1.08 #239 0.37 #294
Turnovers 17.7% #92
Total Defense -0.9 #204

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #230 -0.2% #145
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.2% #247 3.8% #254
Possession Length 16.9 #125 18.4 #314
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #248 0.15 #133
Improvement -2.0 #291 +4.5 #9

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 34.0% 59.5% 28.3%
.500 or above in Conference 10.4% 25.8% 7.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 18.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 35 - 86 - 15
Quad 49 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 239 Samford W 85 - 72 72% +6  1 - 0 +6 +13 A+ F C -6 C- F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 271 Texas St. W 79 - 71 77% -6  2 - 0 -1 +8 C F C+ -8 C- F D
 Tue, Nov 11 314 @Louisiana W 66 - 62 68% +3  3 - 0 -2 -1 F C C+ -1 C+ F F+
 Fri, Nov 14 220 New Orleans L 63 - 85 69% -11  3 - 1 -29 -12 F F A+ -18 F F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 38 Utah St. L 75 - 96 9% -6  3 - 2 -8 +9 A D A- -17 F C+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 132 Boston College W 93 - 90 OT 38% +1  4 - 2 +5 +15 B A+ A+ -10 C- D+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 255 Nicholls St. W 82 - 72 75% +7  5 - 2 +2 +6 B- F A- -5 F B+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 288 Grambling St. W 65 - 63 80% +0  6 - 2 -8 -2 F D A+ -6 C F B
 Sat, Dec 6 62 Akron L 71 - 88 24% -8  6 - 3 -11 -3 F D A+ -8 C- D+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 112 UC San Diego L 67 - 93 32% -16  6 - 4 -23 -11 F+ F D- -9 D C C+
 Wed, Dec 17 209 Louisiana Tech W 61 - 53 67% +6  7 - 4 +2 +0 F C+ A+ +3 A B A
 Sat, Dec 20 148 Portland St. W 63 - 61 54% +3  8 - 4 -0 -3 F D+ F +3 A D- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 262 @East Carolina W 79 - 70 55% +1  9 - 4 1 - 0 +6 +12 B- A- D -5 D+ B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 101 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 66 37% -1  10 - 4 2 - 0 +5 -2 D C+ B- +7 A C- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 341 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 52 76% +19  11 - 4 3 - 0 +24 +10 C+ C C+ +15 B+ B- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 118 UAB L 69 - 82 46% -4  11 - 5 3 - 1 -13 -4 D- B- B -9 C F B
 Sun, Jan 18 144 North Texas L 63 - 71 52% -6  11 - 6 3 - 2 -10 -3 F+ D- A+ -7 D B- A-
 Wed, Jan 21 101 @Florida Atlantic L 74 - 79 19% -6  11 - 7 3 - 3 +3 +4 D+ B+ C -1 D A D+
 Fri, Jan 23 165 @Charlotte L 70 - 73 35% -5  11 - 8 3 - 4 -0 -2 D+ F C+ +2 F+ D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 67 South Florida L 83 - 97 26% -11  11 - 9 3 - 5 -9 +6 A+ F A- -13 C+ F D+
 Sun, Feb 1 100 @Memphis L 67 - 76 18%
 Sun, Feb 8 99 Wichita St. L 70 - 73 37%
 Wed, Feb 11 147 Temple W 73 - 72 53%
 Sun, Feb 15 118 @UAB L 72 - 79 26%
 Wed, Feb 18 144 @North Texas L 63 - 68 30%
 Sun, Feb 22 230 Rice W 75 - 69 70%
 Wed, Feb 25 70 Tulsa L 75 - 81 28%
 Sun, Mar 1 67 @South Florida L 72 - 85 12%
 Thu, Mar 5 147 @Temple L 70 - 75 32%
 Sun, Mar 8 100 Memphis L 70 - 73 37%
Totals 14 - 16 6 - 12 -1 +0 C- D B -1 C- D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 0.1 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 1.1 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 1.0 3.3 0.3 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.0 2.0 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 7.2 6.4 0.4 15.3 9th
10th 0.2 3.5 12.2 11.8 1.8 0.0 29.6 10th
11th 0.6 5.4 12.7 10.3 1.8 0.0 30.7 11th
12th 1.3 3.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 2.0 9.0 18.7 24.2 21.5 14.2 7.2 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.5% 2.9% 2.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
9-9 7.2% 1.5% 1.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.0
8-10 14.2% 0.8% 0.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.1
7-11 21.5% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 21.3
6-12 24.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.1 0.1 0.0 24.1
5-13 18.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 18.6
4-14 9.0% 9.0
3-15 2.0% 2.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.2 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%