Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.1#353
Expected Predictive Rating-14.8#346
Pace63.3#326
Improvement-4.6#358

Offense
Total Offense-8.1#355
First Shot-3.2#269
After Offensive Rebound-4.9#358
Layup/Dunks+0.3#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#269
Freethrows-1.1#257
Improvement-1.7#305

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#334
First Shot-3.5#298
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#291
Layups/Dunks+2.3#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#346
Freethrows-0.4#205
Improvement-2.9#344
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.2% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 4.0% 8.1% 3.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 42.8% 28.9% 42.9%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 147 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 138 @Duquesne L 63-83 6%     0 - 1 -15.5 -9.1 -6.1
  Sat, Nov 8 356 @Binghamton W 67-59 42%     1 - 1 -3.2 -5.1 +2.7
  Mon, Nov 10 349 Delaware St. W 68-57 57%     2 - 1 -4.0 +2.6 -4.7
  Mon, Nov 17 307 @Le Moyne L 68-74 23%     2 - 2 -11.3 -7.8 -3.7
  Fri, Nov 21 2 @Duke L 42-100 0.2%    2 - 3 -32.4 -14.3 -22.8
  Sat, Nov 22 299 Howard L 70-80 30%     2 - 4 -17.6 -9.9 -7.0
  Sat, Nov 29 291 Detroit Mercy L 66-70 39%     2 - 5 -14.2 -7.7 -6.8
  Fri, Dec 5 165 @Siena L 54-83 8%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -26.3 -12.3 -16.0
  Sun, Dec 7 293 @St. Peter's L 43-71 20%     2 - 7 0 - 2 -32.2 -23.6 -13.0
  Sat, Dec 13 359 @Morgan St. L 73-81 44%     2 - 8 -19.6 -3.3 -16.7
  Mon, Dec 15 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 56-83 1%    
  Fri, Jan 2 257 Sacred Heart L 69-74 33%    
  Sun, Jan 4 294 Fairfield L 67-70 40%    
  Fri, Jan 9 171 @Iona L 65-80 8%    
  Sun, Jan 11 320 @Manhattan L 69-76 27%    
  Wed, Jan 14 340 @Canisius L 61-66 32%    
  Mon, Jan 19 298 Mount St. Mary's L 66-69 40%    
  Thu, Jan 22 294 @Fairfield L 64-73 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 257 @Sacred Heart L 66-77 16%    
  Fri, Jan 30 165 Siena L 60-70 18%    
  Sun, Feb 1 156 Marist L 58-68 17%    
  Tue, Feb 3 340 Canisius W 64-63 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 169 @Quinnipiac L 63-78 8%    
  Fri, Feb 13 320 Manhattan L 72-73 48%    
  Sun, Feb 15 171 Iona L 68-77 20%    
  Fri, Feb 20 298 @Mount St. Mary's L 63-72 21%    
  Sun, Feb 22 348 @Rider L 61-65 36%    
  Fri, Feb 27 169 Quinnipiac L 66-75 20%    
  Sun, Mar 1 271 Merrimack L 63-67 35%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 2.4 1.3 0.2 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 4.5 4.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 11.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.0 5.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 16.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 4.6 8.0 6.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 22.8 12th
13th 1.2 4.6 8.4 9.1 5.5 1.5 0.1 30.5 13th
Total 1.2 4.7 9.7 14.1 16.0 15.5 13.9 10.2 6.8 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.0    0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.1% 0.1
12-8 0.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 1.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
10-10 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
9-11 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
8-12 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.8
7-13 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.2
6-14 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-15 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.5
4-16 16.0% 16.0
3-17 14.1% 14.1
2-18 9.7% 9.7
1-19 4.7% 4.7
0-20 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%