Preseason Rankings
Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-10.4#335
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.3#307
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#331
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#314
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 4.4% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 17.1 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 17.8% 44.1% 16.2%
.500 or above in Conference 25.0% 45.9% 23.8%
Conference Champion 1.5% 4.5% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 22.6% 10.6% 23.3%
First Four0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
First Round1.7% 4.3% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 5.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 410 - 1211 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 115   @ Duquesne L 56-73 6%    
  Nov 08, 2025 331   @ Binghamton L 64-67 38%    
  Nov 10, 2025 338   Delaware St. W 72-69 62%    
  Nov 17, 2025 347   @ Le Moyne L 70-72 44%    
  Nov 21, 2025 3   @ Duke L 50-85 0.1%   
  Nov 22, 2025 324   Howard L 70-71 47%    
  Nov 29, 2025 309   Detroit Mercy W 67-66 53%    
  Dec 05, 2025 222   @ Siena L 63-73 20%    
  Dec 07, 2025 297   @ St. Peter's L 58-64 30%    
  Dec 13, 2025 355   @ Morgan St. L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 15, 2025 58   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 54-77 2%    
  Jan 02, 2026 254   Sacred Heart L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 04, 2026 319   Fairfield W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 09, 2026 199   @ Iona L 63-74 18%    
  Jan 11, 2026 260   @ Manhattan L 66-74 25%    
  Jan 14, 2026 346   @ Canisius L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 19, 2026 269   Mount St. Mary's L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 22, 2026 319   @ Fairfield L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 24, 2026 254   @ Sacred Heart L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 30, 2026 222   Siena L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 01, 2026 237   Marist L 59-62 40%    
  Feb 03, 2026 346   Canisius W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 07, 2026 215   @ Quinnipiac L 66-76 20%    
  Feb 13, 2026 260   Manhattan L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 15, 2026 199   Iona L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 20, 2026 269   @ Mount St. Mary's L 62-70 27%    
  Feb 22, 2026 313   @ Rider L 62-67 34%    
  Feb 27, 2026 215   Quinnipiac L 69-73 37%    
  Mar 01, 2026 257   Merrimack L 61-63 42%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.4 1.0 0.1 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.0 1.5 0.1 9.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.5 2.1 0.2 11.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.8 4.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.3 4.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 14.4 12th
13th 0.7 2.3 4.0 4.1 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 15.6 13th
Total 0.7 2.4 4.6 6.9 8.9 10.2 10.8 11.1 10.3 9.0 7.7 5.8 4.2 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 93.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 79.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 67.2% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 33.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 34.9% 34.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 28.8% 28.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.7% 19.7% 19.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-5 1.1% 14.5% 14.5% 16.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
14-6 2.1% 12.4% 12.4% 17.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
13-7 2.9% 9.3% 9.3% 17.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.6
12-8 4.2% 7.3% 7.3% 18.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.9
11-9 5.8% 3.1% 3.1% 18.5 0.0 0.2 5.6
10-10 7.7% 2.1% 2.1% 17.4 0.0 0.2 7.6
9-11 9.0% 0.9% 0.9% 18.4 0.0 0.1 8.9
8-12 10.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.8 0.1 10.2
7-13 11.1% 0.3% 0.3% 19.3 0.0 0.0 11.0
6-14 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
5-15 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.2
4-16 8.9% 8.9
3-17 6.9% 6.9
2-18 4.6% 4.6
1-19 2.4% 2.4
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%