Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.2 #272
Expected Predictive Rating -4.7 #238
Pace 68.1 #205
Improvement -0.7 #224

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #209 D C B- D- C-
Defense #309 D C D+ C+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #206 1.01 #335 -3.3 #298
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #122 0.78 #140 +1.2 #110
Three Pointers 39% #217 0.96 #258 -2.1 #256
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #306 -4.2 #306
Freethrows 0.25 #329 70% #244 0.17 #332
Second Chance 33.0% #108 0.97 #280 0.32 #166
Turnovers 15.2% #108
Total Offense -1.5 #209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #5 1.20 #242 -6.2 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #326 0.73 #133 +2.1 #39
Three Pointers 37% #283 1.12 #308 -0.1 #179
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #308 -4.1 #309
Freethrows 0.28 #121 74% #261 0.21 #147
Second Chance 30.4% #171 1.01 #129 0.31 #146
Turnovers 14.5% #299
Total Defense -4.7 #309

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #243 2.6% #359
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.3% #307 5.2% #278
Possession Length 17.3 #172 17.4 #181
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #270 0.17 #178
Improvement +1.2 #121 -1.9 #295

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.5% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 67.0% 84.4% 59.3%
.500 or above in Conference 30.4% 50.3% 21.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.1%
First Round2.2% 3.1% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 71 - 9
Quad 415 - 617 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 116 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 13% +2  0 - 1 -2 -4 F F A+ +2 B- A- F+
 Sat, Nov 8 332 @NJIT W 74 - 53 56% +6  1 - 1 +13 -6 F B- F +18 A- A+ B
 Mon, Nov 10 53 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 5% -10  1 - 2 -10 -1 C D D+ -9 B+ D F
 Fri, Nov 14 337 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 78% +2  2 - 2 -12 -9 F D A- -4 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 318 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 72% +4  3 - 2 -9 +4 D- A- A -13 F A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 284 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 41% +12  4 - 2 +10 +21 A B- A+ -11 C F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 169 Columbia L 77 - 106 41% -18  4 - 3 -33 +0 D+ C D+ -33 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 314 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 72% +0  5 - 3 -8 +1 C+ C D+ -9 C- B+ F
 Fri, Dec 5 326 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 54% -4  5 - 4 0 - 1 -11 -14 F F F +3 C B+ A
 Sun, Dec 7 209 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 27% -10  5 - 5 0 - 2 -11 -3 C F D+ -9 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 199 Monmouth W 73 - 65 46% +0  6 - 5 +3 +7 C+ B B+ -4 D+ A- D+
 Thu, Dec 18 293 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 43% +14  7 - 5 +10 +13 A- C+ C- -2 A F F+
 Mon, Dec 29 230 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 52% +1  7 - 6 0 - 3 -11 -5 F C+ B- -6 C A- D
 Fri, Jan 2 343 @Canisius L 81 - 85 60% -4  7 - 7 0 - 4 -13 +11 D B- B -23 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 349 @Niagara W 83 - 75 62% +5  8 - 7 1 - 4 -1 +20 C+ B- A+ -20 F C D
 Fri, Jan 9 352 Rider W 68 - 62 83% +8  9 - 7 2 - 4 -10 -3 F A+ B+ -6 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 326 Manhattan W 98 - 62 75% +20  10 - 7 3 - 4 +23 +14 A C- B- +8 A+ C+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 159 @Marist L 67 - 82 19% -13  10 - 8 3 - 5 -12 +5 F+ B+ A- -18 F F C+
 Mon, Jan 19 172 @Siena L 77 - 85 22% -8  10 - 9 3 - 6 -6 +12 C+ A+ B -19 F B B+
 Thu, Jan 22 349 Niagara W 62 - 61 81% +3  11 - 9 4 - 6 -14 -13 F C- F+ -1 D A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 343 Canisius W 61 - 55 79% +7  12 - 9 5 - 6 -9 -7 D D+ F -0 C+ C- A-
 Fri, Jan 30 229 @Iona L 73 - 78 31%
 Sun, Feb 1 177 Quinnipiac L 76 - 78 42%
 Thu, Feb 5 277 @Sacred Heart L 77 - 80 40%
 Sat, Feb 7 159 Marist L 67 - 70 37%
 Sun, Feb 15 230 @St. Peter's L 68 - 73 30%
 Fri, Feb 20 277 Sacred Heart W 80 - 77 62%
 Sun, Feb 22 177 @Quinnipiac L 73 - 81 23%
 Fri, Feb 27 172 Siena L 71 - 73 41%
 Sun, Mar 1 291 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 71 65%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 11 -6 -2 D C B- -5 D C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.4 1.2 0.2 1.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 1.1 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.3 0.5 8.3 6th
7th 0.8 6.8 10.0 2.4 0.0 20.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 7.2 12.4 3.8 0.1 24.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 6.4 11.9 4.4 0.3 23.8 9th
10th 0.4 3.2 6.9 2.8 0.4 13.7 10th
11th 0.6 2.0 1.1 0.2 3.9 11th
12th 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 1.4 6.1 14.8 22.9 24.4 17.5 9.2 3.0 0.5 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 25.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 0.2
13-7 0.5% 19.3% 19.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
12-8 3.0% 10.1% 10.1% 15.3 0.2 0.1 2.7
11-9 9.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.6
10-10 17.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.1 0.4 17.0
9-11 24.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.1 0.6 23.7
8-12 22.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.4 22.5
7-13 14.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 14.7
6-14 6.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.1
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.7 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%