Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#294
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#236
Pace68.4#214
Improvement-2.3#321

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#268
First Shot-5.1#315
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#94
Layup/Dunks-4.2#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
Freethrows-2.8#320
Improvement+0.2#168

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#293
First Shot-4.8#329
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#100
Layups/Dunks-7.3#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#20
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#127
Freethrows-1.8#293
Improvement-2.4#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.4% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 45.7% 63.4% 38.4%
.500 or above in Conference 33.2% 40.6% 30.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 4.4% 7.2%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round1.4% 1.9% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Away) - 29.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 414 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 103 @Penn St. L 68-76 9%     0 - 1 -0.8 -3.2 +2.3
  Sat, Nov 8 352 @NJIT W 74-53 60%     1 - 1 +11.1 -5.3 +14.9
  Mon, Nov 10 56 @Seton Hall L 59-82 4%     1 - 2 -10.5 -4.2 -6.7
  Fri, Nov 14 341 Stonehill W 73-71 OT 75%     2 - 2 -12.2 -11.4 -1.0
  Sun, Nov 16 339 Loyola Maryland W 85-82 74%     3 - 2 -11.1 +2.1 -13.2
  Sat, Nov 22 307 @Le Moyne W 97-83 42%     4 - 2 +8.7 +17.4 -8.8
  Wed, Nov 26 137 Columbia L 77-106 28%     4 - 3 -30.4 +2.2 -32.2
  Sun, Nov 30 335 New Hampshire W 72-68 73%     5 - 3 -9.7 +0.3 -9.7
  Fri, Dec 5 320 @Manhattan L 66-70 46%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -10.4 -15.0 +4.7
  Sun, Dec 7 271 @Merrimack L 63-74 33%     5 - 5 0 - 2 -13.8 -4.5 -10.3
  Sun, Dec 14 220 Monmouth W 73-65 47%     6 - 5 +1.4 +4.3 -2.0
  Thu, Dec 18 242 @Central Connecticut St. L 66-72 29%    
  Mon, Dec 29 293 St. Peter's W 69-66 61%    
  Fri, Jan 2 340 @Canisius W 68-67 53%    
  Sun, Jan 4 353 @Niagara W 70-67 60%    
  Fri, Jan 9 348 Rider W 71-63 76%    
  Wed, Jan 14 320 Manhattan W 79-74 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 156 @Marist L 62-73 17%    
  Mon, Jan 19 165 @Siena L 64-74 18%    
  Thu, Jan 22 353 Niagara W 73-64 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 340 Canisius W 71-64 73%    
  Fri, Jan 30 171 @Iona L 72-81 19%    
  Sun, Feb 1 169 Quinnipiac L 73-77 37%    
  Thu, Feb 5 257 @Sacred Heart L 73-78 33%    
  Sat, Feb 7 156 Marist L 65-70 34%    
  Sun, Feb 15 293 @St. Peter's L 66-69 39%    
  Fri, Feb 20 257 Sacred Heart W 76-75 54%    
  Sun, Feb 22 169 @Quinnipiac L 70-80 19%    
  Fri, Feb 27 165 Siena L 67-71 36%    
  Sun, Mar 1 298 Mount St. Mary's W 73-70 61%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.3 0.2 4.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.9 3.7 0.8 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 5.2 4.7 1.3 0.1 13.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.4 5.3 1.6 0.1 14.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.2 5.6 1.8 0.1 14.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 4.3 5.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.1 1.5 0.1 9.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.4 1.1 0.1 6.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.8 6.9 10.8 13.5 15.0 14.4 12.7 9.2 6.0 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 51.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 28.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 12.2% 12.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.5% 17.2% 17.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.5% 13.0% 13.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3
13-7 3.0% 7.5% 7.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.8
12-8 6.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.7
11-9 9.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.9
10-10 12.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 12.4
9-11 14.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 14.2
8-12 15.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 14.9
7-13 13.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.5
6-14 10.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.7
5-15 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.9
4-16 3.8% 3.8
3-17 1.7% 1.7
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 98.2 0.0%