Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#156
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#157
Pace67.6#232
Improvement-2.1#313

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#305
First Shot-5.3#323
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#165
Layup/Dunks-1.8#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#64
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#272
Freethrows-3.1#331
Improvement+0.4#151

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#45
First Shot+2.9#82
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#32
Layups/Dunks-1.2#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#16
Freethrows-2.7#330
Improvement-2.5#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.5% 28.2% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 97.5% 99.3% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 98.1% 96.2%
Conference Champion 34.9% 41.6% 31.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round24.2% 28.1% 22.4%
Second Round1.2% 1.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 33.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 33 - 5
Quad 418 - 421 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 76 @Xavier L 62-66 16%     0 - 1 +6.7 -2.8 +9.3
  Sun, Nov 9 245 @Dartmouth W 75-56 58%     1 - 1 +17.2 -0.9 +17.4
  Sun, Nov 16 200 Harvard L 54-56 71%     1 - 2 -7.6 -15.2 +7.4
  Fri, Nov 21 332 Army W 76-65 89%     2 - 2 -2.5 +0.8 -2.8
  Tue, Nov 25 309 Lehigh W 78-55 86%     3 - 2 +11.7 +2.4 +10.0
  Fri, Dec 5 298 Mount St. Mary's W 64-56 84%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -2.5 -14.7 +12.1
  Sun, Dec 7 320 Manhattan W 80-68 88%     5 - 2 2 - 0 -0.4 -7.7 +6.4
  Sat, Dec 13 297 @Bryant W 82-74 67%     6 - 2 +3.6 +9.9 -6.2
  Tue, Dec 16 130 @Georgia Tech L 64-69 33%    
  Sun, Dec 21 197 Stony Brook W 68-62 70%    
  Mon, Dec 29 169 @Quinnipiac L 69-71 43%    
  Fri, Jan 2 293 @St. Peter's W 65-61 67%    
  Sun, Jan 4 171 Iona W 73-69 65%    
  Fri, Jan 9 257 @Sacred Heart W 71-69 60%    
  Sun, Jan 11 348 @Rider W 66-57 80%    
  Sat, Jan 17 294 Fairfield W 73-62 83%    
  Mon, Jan 19 271 Merrimack W 68-59 79%    
  Thu, Jan 22 165 @Siena L 63-66 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 169 Quinnipiac W 72-68 64%    
  Fri, Jan 30 340 @Canisius W 66-58 78%    
  Sun, Feb 1 353 @Niagara W 68-58 83%    
  Thu, Feb 5 348 Rider W 69-54 91%    
  Sat, Feb 7 294 @Fairfield W 70-65 66%    
  Thu, Feb 12 271 @Merrimack W 65-62 61%    
  Sun, Feb 15 165 Siena W 66-63 62%    
  Fri, Feb 20 320 @Manhattan W 74-67 73%    
  Sun, Feb 22 257 Sacred Heart W 74-66 78%    
  Sun, Mar 1 293 St. Peter's W 68-58 83%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.9 8.5 9.9 7.3 3.4 0.8 34.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.5 7.6 5.3 1.8 0.2 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.4 6.1 3.6 0.8 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.5 4.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.5 8.5 11.9 14.1 15.6 14.6 11.8 7.5 3.4 0.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 100.0% 3.4    3.4 0.0
18-2 97.7% 7.3    6.6 0.7 0.0
17-3 84.2% 9.9    7.4 2.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 58.1% 8.5    4.4 3.3 0.7 0.0
15-5 25.2% 3.9    1.2 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.3% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.9% 34.9 24.0 8.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 53.9% 53.9% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
19-1 3.4% 49.7% 49.7% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7
18-2 7.5% 41.9% 41.9% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.1 4.3
17-3 11.8% 36.8% 36.8% 13.8 0.1 1.4 2.1 0.6 0.0 7.5
16-4 14.6% 29.5% 29.5% 14.1 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.3 0.1 10.3
15-5 15.6% 26.7% 26.7% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.9 0.2 11.4
14-6 14.1% 20.5% 20.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.3 11.2
13-7 11.9% 15.9% 15.9% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 10.0
12-8 8.5% 11.4% 11.4% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.5 7.6
11-9 5.5% 7.7% 7.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.1
10-10 3.2% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.0
9-11 1.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 1.7
8-12 0.9% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
7-13 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 1.3 5.0 8.7 7.3 2.0 75.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.4 2.1 56.3 39.6 2.1