Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.5 #122
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 #187
Pace 75.3 #36
Improvement +1.1 #139

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #127 B- C D+ B- B+
Defense #134 C+ B- C D C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #99 1.25 #81 +3.7 #66
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #347 0.71 #255 -4.1 #348
Three Pointers 48% #44 1.03 #179 +3.9 #58
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #77 +3.4 #77
Freethrows 0.35 #46 70% #245 0.24 #91
Second Chance 29.9% #207 1.06 #151 0.32 #177
Turnovers 17.8% #273
Total Offense +1.5 #127

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #148 1.13 #145 -0.3 #184
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #82 0.76 #186 -1.3 #287
Three Pointers 37% #294 1.00 #156 +2.6 #83
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #142 +1.1 #144
Freethrows 0.36 #321 73% #220 0.26 #326
Second Chance 26.3% #47 1.09 #244 0.29 #99
Turnovers 16.1% #204
Total Defense +0.9 #134

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.0% #22 -0.6% #117
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.6% #118 -1.6% #154
Possession Length 15.8 #47 17.3 #165
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #45 0.22 #322
Improvement +0.2 #168 +0.9 #133

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.6
.500 or above 26.2% 36.3% 12.9%
.500 or above in Conference 23.3% 33.3% 10.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Home) - 56.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 22 - 52 - 10
Quad 34 - 56 - 15
Quad 48 - 214 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 349 Niagara W 83 - 63 94% +17  1 - 0 +5 +2 A C- F +2 B B A
 Fri, Nov 7 277 Sacred Heart W 92 - 80 87% +7  2 - 0 +2 +7 F B+ A+ -5 B C+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 199 Queens W 87 - 81 OT 78% +9  3 - 0 +0 -9 D+ F+ F +9 B+ A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 36 @Villanova L 77 - 87 10% -6  3 - 1 +7 +12 A+ D+ F -5 A F B+
 Wed, Nov 19 317 Loyola Maryland W 92 - 78 91% +12  4 - 1 +2 +7 B A+ F -6 D- B- D+
 Sat, Nov 22 256 Northeastern L 86 - 93 77% -3  4 - 2 -12 -7 C+ F F -4 F A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 133 William & Mary L 79 - 83 64% -8  4 - 3 -5 -1 D A+ F -4 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 238 Stony Brook W 84 - 75 82% +8  5 - 3 +2 +9 A F+ C- -7 B- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 58 @Boise St. L 64 - 86 17% -12  5 - 4 -10 -3 D- C+ C+ -7 C D+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 74 @Nevada L 75 - 78 22% -5  5 - 5 +8 +10 C A- D -2 B+ D- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 342 Canisius W 103 - 59 94% +22  6 - 5 +29 +22 A+ C+ C +6 C- C+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 136 @Davidson W 89 - 83 2OT 42% -3  7 - 5 1 - 0 +11 +10 C B B -0 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 80 - 93 31% -7  7 - 6 1 - 1 -6 +7 A+ D- C- -13 C F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 139 @Saint Joseph's L 90 - 97 OT 43% +0  7 - 7 1 - 2 -3 +10 A- B- D- -12 F C+ D
 Tue, Jan 13 85 Dayton L 65 - 71 45% -5  7 - 8 1 - 3 -2 +2 C F A -5 C- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 195 @Fordham W 74 - 63 56% +6  8 - 8 2 - 3 +12 +3 B- D+ F+ +9 A B- C
 Tue, Jan 20 26 Saint Louis L 77 - 81 18% -5  8 - 9 2 - 4 +8 +4 D+ A+ D- +5 A D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 280 @Loyola Chicago W 71 - 59 73% +4  9 - 9 3 - 4 +8 -2 C+ F D- +11 A B D
 Wed, Jan 28 141 St. Bonaventure L 79 - 87 66% +2  9 - 10 3 - 5 -10 +3 A- F B- -13 F+ B- F
 Sun, Feb 1 109 Rhode Island W 75 - 73 57%
 Wed, Feb 4 86 @George Mason L 71 - 78 26%
 Sat, Feb 7 65 George Washington L 82 - 85 38%
 Sat, Feb 14 141 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 79 43%
 Wed, Feb 18 202 La Salle W 78 - 70 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 85 @Dayton L 72 - 79 25%
 Wed, Feb 25 136 Davidson W 75 - 71 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 26 @Saint Louis L 74 - 90 7%
 Wed, Mar 4 109 @Rhode Island L 72 - 76 35%
 Sat, Mar 7 117 Richmond W 80 - 77 60%
Totals 13 - 16 7 - 11 +2 +2 B- C D+ +1 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 2.8 0.5 4.8 5th
6th 0.6 4.9 1.9 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.1 4.2 5.8 0.4 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 2.0 9.7 2.1 0.0 13.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 9.5 6.6 0.2 17.5 9th
10th 0.5 6.1 9.4 0.9 0.0 16.8 10th
11th 0.1 2.8 7.4 2.5 0.0 12.8 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 4.8 3.0 0.2 9.1 12th
13th 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.3 4.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.5 2.9 9.7 18.0 23.6 22.0 14.7 6.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.3
11-7 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 1.9
10-8 6.4% 1.8% 1.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3
9-9 14.7% 0.7% 0.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.6
8-10 22.0% 0.6% 0.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 21.8
7-11 23.6% 0.4% 0.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.5
6-12 18.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 17.9
5-13 9.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 9.7
4-14 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 13.1 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%