Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.5 #51
Expected Predictive Rating +10.2 #58
Pace 71.4 #113
Improvement -3.3 #314

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #44 B B B B+ B
Defense #89 C+ B- C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #116 1.21 #115 +2.5 #101
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #339 0.85 #60 -2.8 #315
Three Pointers 47% #56 1.10 #66 +5.3 #36
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #54 +5.0 #54
Freethrows 0.35 #37 74% #114 0.26 #33
Second Chance 35.0% #59 1.10 #98 0.39 #56
Turnovers 14.4% #61
Total Offense +7.4 #44

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #42 1.06 #67 -1.0 #214
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #87 0.80 #250 -1.6 #303
Three Pointers 33% #357 1.02 #181 +4.3 #33
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #129 +1.7 #129
Freethrows 0.30 #174 72% #172 0.21 #171
Second Chance 29.5% #136 0.93 #43 0.27 #81
Turnovers 17.3% #119
Total Defense +3.1 #89

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #31 0.0% #164
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.9% #71 -3.3% #122
Possession Length 16.2 #68 17.9 #265
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #101 0.15 #118
Improvement +1.5 #104 -4.8 #358

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.7% 27.9% 19.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.5% 10.7% 5.2%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 11.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
Conference Champion 6.7% 6.9% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.9% 7.0% 4.4%
First Round24.3% 24.5% 17.1%
Second Round7.5% 7.6% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.6% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Home) - 97.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 31 - 6
Quad 26 - 37 - 9
Quad 38 - 114 - 10
Quad 410 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 324 Wagner W 103 - 74 97% +12  1 - 0 +16 +14 B A+ C+ -0 B B+ B-
 Fri, Nov 7 38 Utah St. L 77 - 80 39% -8  1 - 1 +10 +3 B+ D+ D- +8 A D- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 226 St. Peter's W 78 - 61 94% +10  2 - 1 +10 +6 A+ F F +4 A+ C+ B
 Mon, Nov 17 24 @North Carolina St. L 79 - 85 21% -4  2 - 2 +13 +11 C+ B A+ +3 A- D A+
 Sat, Nov 22 364 Coppin St. W 101 - 58 99% +23  3 - 2 +20 +11 B- F+ A +6 C A C
 Wed, Nov 26 67 South Florida W 78 - 66 58% +3  4 - 2 +20 +6 C- B- B+ +14 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 12 Vanderbilt L 74 - 89 21% -10  4 - 3 +4 +5 D B+ B +1 D- A A+
 Fri, Nov 28 59 Virginia Tech W 86 - 68 54% +10  5 - 3 +27 +17 A+ F C- +10 B+ B+ A-
 Fri, Dec 5 239 Samford W 83 - 57 94% +7  6 - 3 +19 +4 B- B F +14 A+ A- B-
 Wed, Dec 10 43 New Mexico L 78 - 81 56% +1  6 - 4 +6 +11 C- A- B+ -6 F A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 349 Niagara W 84 - 58 98% +8  7 - 4 +11 +14 A+ D+ C- -0 B- C- D+
 Thu, Dec 18 233 American W 105 - 83 94% +12  8 - 4 +15 +29 A+ A+ B+ -14 D+ C F+
 Mon, Dec 22 352 Rider W 100 - 79 98% +11  9 - 4 +5 +18 A A+ C -13 D F D
 Wed, Dec 31 141 St. Bonaventure W 89 - 82 87% +0  10 - 4 1 - 0 +5 +16 B B A+ -11 D+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 122 @Duquesne W 93 - 80 69% +7  11 - 4 2 - 0 +18 +21 B+ A+ C -3 F A+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 26 Saint Louis L 62 - 71 43% -6  11 - 5 2 - 1 +3 -10 D- F C +14 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 86 @George Mason L 80 - 86 53% -1  11 - 6 2 - 2 +4 +15 B+ A- A- -12 C- D F
 Wed, Jan 14 109 @Rhode Island W 84 - 75 64% +8  12 - 6 3 - 2 +16 +19 B+ B+ A+ -3 D- A+ C+
 Mon, Jan 19 139 Saint Joseph's W 79 - 72 87% +0  13 - 6 4 - 2 +5 +5 C B- B- +0 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 24 136 @Davidson W 75 - 69 71% +0  14 - 6 5 - 2 +11 +16 A- A+ D+ -4 C B- F
 Tue, Jan 27 117 Richmond W 77 - 69 84% +8  15 - 6 6 - 2 +8 +15 B+ C A -6 A- F C
 Fri, Jan 30 280 Loyola Chicago W 87 - 67 97%
 Tue, Feb 3 195 @Fordham W 77 - 67 82%
 Fri, Feb 6 85 Dayton W 79 - 72 74%
 Wed, Feb 11 202 @La Salle W 79 - 69 83%
 Sat, Feb 14 117 @Richmond W 81 - 76 67%
 Tue, Feb 17 65 George Washington W 85 - 80 67%
 Fri, Feb 20 26 @Saint Louis L 77 - 85 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 195 Fordham W 80 - 64 93%
 Tue, Mar 3 86 George Mason W 78 - 71 73%
 Fri, Mar 6 85 @Dayton W 76 - 75 53%
Totals 22 - 9 13 - 5 +10 +7 B B B +3 C+ B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.2 6.7 1st
2nd 0.3 5.1 17.2 21.6 10.8 0.7 55.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.8 10.5 8.6 2.3 0.2 24.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.1 3.1 0.4 8.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.1 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 8.9 18.7 26.3 25.1 14.2 2.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 75.6% 2.2    1.1 1.1 0.0
15-3 22.7% 3.2    0.9 2.2 0.1
14-4 4.9% 1.2    0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 2.2 4.0 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.9% 68.6% 35.7% 32.9% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.9 51.2%
15-3 14.2% 46.8% 24.5% 22.3% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.8 4.1 0.0 7.5 29.5%
14-4 25.1% 32.8% 22.0% 10.8% 10.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 6.7 0.2 16.9 13.9%
13-5 26.3% 24.1% 19.9% 4.2% 11.0 0.0 0.4 5.5 0.4 20.0 5.2%
12-6 18.7% 17.0% 14.2% 2.8% 11.1 0.1 2.7 0.5 15.5 3.2%
11-7 8.9% 11.7% 11.1% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.8 0.3 7.9 0.7%
10-8 3.1% 6.4% 6.2% 0.2% 11.3 0.1 0.1 2.9 0.2%
9-9 0.8% 5.2% 5.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.7% 19.1% 8.5% 10.7 72.3 10.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 7.7 0.5 5.3 18.8 20.2 25.0 14.9 13.5 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 58.1% 10.0 3.9 11.6 24.5 18.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 48.5% 10.4 4.1 21.6 22.7