Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +11.5 48
Results Rating +12.7 43
Consistency 0.10 1
Pace 71.3 104
Improvement -1.7 251

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 50 B B B A- B
Defense B 66 B B- C B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 104 C+ 59% 140 +2.1 103
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 325 B+ 45% 26 -2.0 281
Three Pointers 46% 89 B 36% 77 +4.1 52
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.2 39 B- +2.9 87
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 66
Second Chance B- 33.8% 80 B- 1.09 90 B 0.37 64
Opponents' Steals B- 8.7% 111
Other Turnovers B 6.0% 48
Turnovers B 14.8% 73
Freethrows A- 0.37 10 C+ 74% 130 A- 0.28 14
Total Offense B+ +7.1 50

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 231 C+ 10.1% 137
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 287 C 5.3% 207
Three Pointers C+ 85% 164 B- 0.5% 90
Total C 56% 164 C+ 5.1% 127


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 35 B+ 52% 38 +0.5 199
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 160 C 38% 188 +0.2 209
Three Pointers 35% 344 B- 32% 91 -4.1 25
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 241 B -3.7 41
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 61
Second Chance C+ 29.3% 142 B 0.95 65 B- 0.28 90
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.6% 97
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 287
Turnovers C 17.1% 156
Freethrows B- 0.28 107 B- 71% 98 B- 0.20 93
Total Defense B +4.4 66

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 123 B- 13.1% 87
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 227 D+ 3.3% 279
Three Pointers A- 75% 14 A+ 2.9% 6
Total B 50% 63 B 7.5% 49

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 43 18.0 281
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 92 0.14 94
Consistency 0.10 48 0.11 93
Improvement -0.5 215 -1.2 248

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status On The Bubble
Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 52 47 46
Results Rating Rank 46 39 39
Conference Record 15 - 3 15 - 3 15 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None 11 9
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86% 100% 60%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60% n/a 60%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 10.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four13% 0% 36%
First Round79% 100% 41%
Second Round26% 32% 14%
Sweet Sixteen6% 7% 3%
Elite Eight2% 2% 1%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 4
Quad 25 - 37 - 7
Quad 39 - 016 - 7
Quad 411 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 310 Wagner W 103 - 74 98% +12  95% 1 - 0 A- +17 A +14 B A+ C+ C+ +1 C+ B C+
 Fri, Nov 7 34 Utah St. L 77 - 80 41% -8  9% 1 - 1 B +11 C +0 B+ D+ F+ A +11 A F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 240 St. Peter's W 78 - 61 95% +10  89% 2 - 1 B +9 C+ +2 A+ F F A- +7 A+ C+ B
 Mon, Nov 17 33 @North Carolina St. L 79 - 85 30% -4  0% 2 - 2 B +11 B- +5 C+ B A- B+ +7 A D- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 362 Coppin St. W 101 - 58 99% +23  97% 3 - 2 A +21 A +12 A- F A+ A- +7 C A- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 51 South Florida W 78 - 66 51% +3  61% 4 - 2 A +23 B- +5 C- B- A A+ +17 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 9 Vanderbilt L 74 - 89 22% -10  1% 4 - 3 C+ +5 C +0 D- B+ B B+ +5 F+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 28 56 Virginia Tech W 86 - 68 55% +10  92% 5 - 3 A+ +28 A +14 A+ F D+ A+ +14 A B+ A-
 Fri, Dec 5 207 Samford W 83 - 57 93% +7  53% 6 - 3 A +21 C+ +3 B B+ F+ A+ +18 A+ A C
 Wed, Dec 10 54 New Mexico L 78 - 81 64% +1  53% 6 - 4 C+ +5 B +6 D A B C- -2 F A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 334 Niagara W 84 - 58 98% +8  91% 7 - 4 B +11 A- +11 A+ C- C- B- +3 A- C+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 251 American W 105 - 83 96% +12  94% 8 - 4 B+ +14 A+ +25 A- A+ A F -11 D+ C F+
 Mon, Dec 22 357 Rider W 100 - 79 99% +11  83% 9 - 4 C+ +2 A +13 A- A+ B F -11 D F D+
 Wed, Dec 31 130 St. Bonaventure W 89 - 82 88% +0  40% 10 - 4 1 - 0 B- +6 A +14 B B+ A+ D- -8 D+ C- D
 Sat, Jan 3 121 @Duquesne W 93 - 80 71% +7  92% 11 - 4 2 - 0 A +19 A+ +19 B+ A+ B- C -0 F A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 36 Saint Louis L 62 - 71 53% -6  1% 11 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +2 F -14 F F C A+ +17 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 99 @George Mason L 80 - 86 62% -1  44% 11 - 6 2 - 2 C+ +2 A +13 A- B+ A- F -11 D+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 136 @Rhode Island W 84 - 75 75% +8  97% 12 - 6 3 - 2 B+ +13 A+ +17 A- A- A+ D+ -4 F A+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 109 Saint Joseph's W 79 - 72 84% +0  45% 13 - 6 4 - 2 B- +8 B- +4 C+ B+ B- B- +3 F A- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 116 @Davidson W 75 - 69 70% +0  46% 14 - 6 5 - 2 B+ +12 A +15 A A+ D+ C- -2 C- B- F
 Tue, Jan 27 142 Richmond W 77 - 69 89% +8  99% 15 - 6 6 - 2 B- +6 A- +11 B C A+ D+ -4 A- F C+
 Fri, Jan 30 246 Loyola Chicago W 89 - 75 95% +0  50% 16 - 6 7 - 2 B- +6 A +13 B B B+ D- -7 C+ F C
 Tue, Feb 3 153 @Fordham W 63 - 59 78% +8  98% 17 - 6 8 - 2 B- +7 C- -1 C+ A F A +9 A+ C+ D-
 Fri, Feb 6 77 Dayton W 99 - 73 74% +17  94% 18 - 6 9 - 2 A+ +31 A +14 C A+ A+ A+ +13 A+ C B
 Wed, Feb 11 216 @La Salle W 77 - 68 86% +5  84% 19 - 6 10 - 2 B +9 B +7 B B- D- B- +3 A+ D F
 Sat, Feb 14 142 @Richmond W 78 - 67 76% +10  99% 20 - 6 11 - 2 A- +15 C+ +4 B- D B- A+ +12 A+ B+ D-
 Tue, Feb 17 85 George Washington W 89 - 75 77% +4  71% 21 - 6 12 - 2 A- +18 A+ +15 B+ B A+ B- +3 B+ B+ D+
 Fri, Feb 20 36 @Saint Louis L 75 - 88 30% +4  73% 21 - 7 12 - 3 C+ +4 C +0 F A+ F B +5 C C+ A-
 Sat, Feb 28 153 Fordham W 82 - 63 90% +10  93% 22 - 7 13 - 3 A- +16 A- +11 A B B B+ +6 A A- D-
 Tue, Mar 3 99 George Mason W 70 - 65 81% +1  64% 23 - 7 14 - 3 B- +7 B +6 B- C+ A+ B- +2 B+ D+ C
 Fri, Mar 6 77 @Dayton W 68 - 62 53% +2  70% 24 - 7 15 - 3 A- +17 A- +11 A F A+ B+ +7 A D D
 Fri, Mar 13 121 Duquesne W 71 - 66 80% +2  60% 25 - 7 B- +8 C+ +3 A- F B- B+ +5 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Mar 14 109 Saint Joseph's W 77 - 64 76% +16  94% 26 - 7 A- +17 A +13 B A- A B+ +5 C- A+ D-
 Sun, Mar 15 77 Dayton W 76 - 72 64%
Totals 27 - 7 15 - 3 +12 B+ +7 B+ B- B B +4 B C+ A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ C+ B+ B B- 41% 24% 46% B B B- B- B B A- C+ A- B B+ C B- B 44% 21% 35% C- B C+ B B- C B- B- B-
1.19 59% 45% 36% +3 +1 1.10 34% 1.1 .37 15% .37 74% .28 1.02 52% 38% 32% -4 0 0.95 29% 1.0 .28 17% .28 71% .27
Nov
3		 Wagner A B- F C+ C+ 47% 2% 51% A B A A+ A+ C+ A+ D- B+ C+ A+ B- F B- 48% 21% 31% D- C+ C- A B C+ F C+ F
1.35 62% 0% 36% +2 +3 1.13 41% 1.5 .62 13% .47 68% .32 0.97 36% 36% 44% -6 +1 0.90 33% 0.9 .29 20% .39 71% .28
Nov
7		 Utah St. C C- A- B+ B+ 31% 14% 55% B- B+ B+ F D+ F+ A+ F A- A A+ A+ F A+ 64% 13% 23% F+ A D F F A+ F B- F
1.01 53% 43% 37% +2 0 1.06 38% 0.7 .27 25% .49 57% .28 1.05 47% 17% 45% -6 +3 0.96 39% 1.4 .56 24% .45 69% .31
Nov
12		 St. Peter's C+ B- B- A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% B A+ B- F F F A+ C A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 33% 22% 44% C A+ D- A- C+ B D F F
1.14 61% 40% 44% +8 +1 1.22 39% 0.3 .12 25% .68 74% .51 0.89 27% 50% 20% -17 -1 0.67 40% 0.8 .33 20% .35 89% .31
Nov
17		 North Carolina St. B- B F C C+ 23% 7% 70% C+ C+ C+ A B A- C- D+ C- B+ A+ F C- A- 36% 22% 42% A- A F A D- A+ F D- F
1.07 62% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.02 28% 1.2 .33 16% .29 67% .19 1.15 44% 50% 37% -1 0 1.00 42% 1.1 .45 23% .58 82% .48
Nov
22		 Coppin St. A A A+ C+ B+ 54% 6% 41% A A- D F F A+ A+ B- A+ A- B C B C 40% 27% 33% C- C B A+ A- C+ A+ A A+
1.36 72% 67% 36% +11 +3 1.30 31% 0.9 .28 11% .48 78% .38 0.78 48% 36% 29% -7 -1 0.87 25% 0.7 .18 23% .17 60% .10
Nov
26		 South Florida B- D- A- D- C- 37% 25% 38% C C- A- D- B- A A+ B- A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 64% 11% 25% D A+ A+ A A+ D- B A+ A
1.08 47% 46% 30% -4 -1 0.92 38% 0.8 .31 15% .52 72% .37 0.91 50% 0% 14% -17 +3 0.75 30% 0.9 .27 12% .32 60% .19
Nov
27		 Vanderbilt C F A+ F F 35% 10% 55% A D- D- A+ B+ B A+ B- A+ B+ B F F F 43% 18% 39% C- F+ C A+ A A+ F A F
0.98 44% 60% 21% -13 +1 0.78 21% 1.6 .33 17% .56 77% .43 1.18 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.30 33% 0.8 .27 23% .57 73% .41
Nov
28		 Virginia Tech A A- C- A+ A+ 41% 22% 37% C+ A+ B- F F D+ A+ D- A+ A+ B+ B+ C- A 45% 27% 29% C+ A A+ F+ B+ A- F A+ C+
1.22 67% 36% 58% +17 0 1.35 33% 0.5 .17 20% .39 68% .26 0.96 55% 31% 36% -3 0 0.96 24% 1.3 .29 18% .40 57% .23
Dec
5		 Samford C+ F+ B- A+ B- 40% 13% 46% A B A+ F B+ F+ A F C+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ 38% 25% 37% C+ A+ B A+ A C B C+ B-
1.18 48% 43% 46% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .38 17% .38 59% .22 0.81 65% 23% 11% -14 -1 0.73 20% 0.7 .14 14% .32 68% .22
Dec
10		 New Mexico B F A+ D F+ 39% 12% 49% A- D A+ D+ A B A+ A+ A+ C- B- F F F+ 57% 9% 35% F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.12 37% 67% 29% -8 +1 0.88 41% 0.9 .39 17% .48 82% .40 1.16 54% 75% 50% +9 +3 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 20% .39 86% .34
Dec
15		 Niagara A- F+ C A+ A+ 27% 11% 62% C+ A+ B- F+ C- C- A+ F B B- A A- C+ A 54% 19% 28% D+ A- F A+ C+ D- A F B
1.34 50% 40% 54% +16 0 1.36 37% 0.9 .33 16% .40 67% .26 0.92 45% 30% 33% -9 +1 0.87 38% 0.4 .17 16% .15 88% .13
Dec
18		 American A+ A+ B- B A- 43% 13% 44% B A- A+ A+ A+ A F+ A+ B- F B+ A+ F D 37% 11% 52% C- D+ D+ B C F+ F F F
1.49 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 50% 1.5 .77 14% .30 94% .28 1.18 50% 17% 43% +2 +1 1.07 28% 0.8 .23 13% .36 86% .31
Dec
22		 Rider A A C A A- 54% 9% 38% B A- C+ A+ A+ B B+ A A F C- D- A+ D 42% 40% 19% C+ D F+ F F D+ F D+ F
1.39 70% 40% 43% +12 +3 1.30 34% 1.5 .52 12% .35 77% .27 1.09 55% 43% 20% -4 -2 0.91 36% 1.4 .49 15% .41 72% .29
Dec
31		 St. Bonaventure A A+ D F B 48% 13% 40% A- B F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- D+ A- F D+ 49% 34% 17% B- D+ C- C C- D B- F D
1.31 78% 33% 26% +5 +2 1.15 20% 2.0 .40 10% .46 93% .43 1.21 62% 33% 56% +6 -1 1.11 37% 1.0 .37 15% .26 93% .24
Jan
3		 Duquesne A+ A D C B 42% 13% 44% A- B+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A- A+ C F F B- F 50% 4% 46% F+ F A+ A A+ C+ F A D
1.30 68% 33% 35% +4 +1 1.13 34% 1.8 .62 17% .52 77% .40 1.12 79% 50% 32% +10 +3 1.27 21% 0.8 .17 18% .43 64% .27
Jan
7		 Saint Louis F F F F+ F 50% 11% 39% A+ F D- F F C A- A+ A+ A+ A- C A+ A+ 59% 8% 32% D A+ A+ A+ A+ C- B+ A- A-
0.81 39% 0% 27% -17 +2 0.71 20% 0.3 .07 16% .37 83% .31 0.92 51% 40% 26% -7 +3 0.93 15% 0.8 .13 16% .25 69% .17
Jan
10		 George Mason A A+ A D+ A- 31% 23% 46% C- A- B+ B+ B+ A- A+ B+ A+ F F F A+ D 41% 31% 29% B+ D+ A F D- F D- F F
1.20 73% 45% 32% +5 -1 1.10 32% 1.1 .35 12% .43 76% .32 1.29 75% 53% 21% +6 -1 1.12 23% 1.7 .38 11% .40 88% .35
Jan
14		 Rhode Island A+ B- F B+ B+ 42% 4% 54% A A- D A+ A- A+ A F+ B D+ D F D+ F 39% 14% 47% C- F B+ A+ A+ C F A+ D
1.25 60% 0% 38% +3 +2 1.13 26% 1.6 .42 7% .45 64% .29 1.11 63% 71% 35% +7 +1 1.18 27% 0.5 .13 19% .44 63% .28
Jan
19		 Saint Joseph's B- D- F B+ C 40% 9% 51% A+ C+ C- A+ B+ B- A+ C A B- A- F F F+ 55% 9% 36% F F A B+ A- A+ F+ A+ C-
1.09 48% 20% 37% -4 +2 0.98 28% 1.4 .38 14% .32 70% .22 0.99 50% 50% 47% +4 +3 1.15 25% 0.9 .22 25% .35 63% .22
Jan
24		 Davidson A A+ A+ F A+ 34% 37% 29% F+ A A+ A+ A+ D+ A B- A C- C- F+ D- D- 20% 37% 43% A+ C- C+ B+ B- F B A+ A
1.22 71% 60% 25% +9 -2 1.15 44% 1.3 .56 19% .40 70% .28 1.12 60% 50% 38% +7 -3 1.10 29% 0.9 .26 11% .26 50% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Richmond A- F A+ A+ B- 37% 10% 54% A B A- F C A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A D- B+ B+ 30% 43% 28% A+ A- F F F C+ B+ B+ A-
1.27 47% 50% 41% +3 +1 1.10 39% 0.9 .35 12% .50 81% .41 1.14 50% 45% 31% -1 -3 0.94 38% 1.4 .53 15% .27 71% .19
Jan
30		 Loyola Chicago A A- F C+ B- 38% 13% 48% B B B- B+ B B+ A+ A- A+ D- B A+ D- B- 48% 12% 40% D+ C+ F F F C C+ C C+
1.31 65% 29% 36% +3 +1 1.10 32% 1.2 .38 10% .47 83% .39 1.10 52% 17% 38% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.2 .44 19% .29 69% .20
Feb
3		 Fordham C- B- D B- B- 33% 31% 36% D+ C+ A- B A F A+ F A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ 47% 21% 32% D A+ B- D+ C+ D- C F D+
0.98 62% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 35% 1.2 .42 23% .57 61% .35 0.92 48% 27% 18% -15 +1 0.74 31% 1.0 .31 14% .25 79% .20
Feb
6		 Dayton A D- A+ F+ D+ 51% 12% 37% A+ C C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B C- A+ 56% 13% 31% D- A+ C C C B D A+ B+
1.20 48% 71% 29% -4 +2 0.98 28% 1.6 .46 15% .54 82% .44 0.88 35% 29% 35% -13 +2 0.80 28% 1.2 .33 19% .45 60% .27
Feb
11		 La Salle B C C A B- 47% 17% 36% B- B A+ F B- D- A F B- B- A- A- A+ A+ 43% 25% 31% C A+ A- F D F C- D+ C-
1.17 59% 38% 41% +4 +1 1.13 42% 0.9 .39 20% .36 58% .21 1.03 45% 31% 19% -14 0 0.73 29% 1.4 .39 9% .35 76% .27
Feb
14		 Richmond C+ F+ A+ C+ B 15% 23% 62% D B- D+ F+ D B- B+ A+ A A+ B A+ A+ A+ 38% 21% 42% F+ A+ A+ F+ B+ D- F F F
1.12 50% 58% 34% +4 -2 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 16% .36 81% .29 0.96 55% 18% 23% -12 0 0.77 16% 1.2 .19 11% .44 89% .39
Feb
17		 George Washington A+ C+ A+ B+ A- 38% 17% 45% C+ B+ C- A+ B A+ A+ C+ A+ B- B A+ C B+ 34% 6% 60% B- B+ B- B+ B+ D+ C+ A B
1.30 61% 50% 38% +6 0 1.15 25% 1.4 .36 12% .58 74% .43 1.10 56% 0% 34% -3 +2 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 16% .30 65% .19
Feb
20		 Saint Louis C F F D- F 43% 4% 53% A+ F A+ A A+ F A+ C+ A+ B C- F D- C 58% 7% 35% D C D B+ C+ A- C A+ A
0.97 30% 0% 29% -18 +3 0.72 38% 1.1 .40 21% .52 75% .39 1.13 64% 50% 40% +7 +3 1.23 35% 0.9 .32 21% .31 53% .16
Feb
28		 Fordham A- B+ C+ B A- 40% 10% 50% A+ A B B- B B A+ D+ A B+ A+ C+ B A+ 50% 10% 40% F A A- B+ A- D- F D F
1.20 65% 40% 36% +4 +1 1.14 31% 1.2 .37 15% .40 65% .26 0.92 38% 40% 29% -13 +2 0.81 27% 0.8 .23 15% .34 75% .26
Mar
3		 George Mason B D D- A- C+ 46% 15% 39% A- B- B D+ C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B- A C- C A 49% 11% 40% F B+ B- F D+ C B+ C- B
1.15 52% 29% 39% -1 +1 1.02 32% 0.9 .29 10% .36 75% .27 1.07 50% 40% 33% -4 +2 0.98 29% 1.2 .35 16% .30 73% .22
Mar
6		 Dayton A- A C A A 34% 23% 43% C A F F F A+ F+ A- D B+ F+ F A+ A 41% 15% 43% C+ A C+ F D D A+ A+ A+
1.12 69% 36% 40% +7 -1 1.15 17% 0.8 .14 12% .24 77% .19 1.02 68% 43% 15% -7 +1 0.89 26% 1.4 .38 15% .29 53% .15
Mar
13		 Duquesne C+ D- A+ A+ B+ 48% 17% 36% A- A- D+ F F B- A+ C A+ B+ C+ F D C- 47% 4% 49% D- D+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+
1.10 50% 57% 47% +6 +1 1.17 26% 0.5 .13 17% .46 72% .33 1.02 57% 50% 36% +2 +3 1.11 32% 0.4 .13 23% .24 83% .20
Mar
14		 Saint Joseph's A D+ A+ F+ B 35% 27% 38% C B C+ A+ A- A B- A B B+ B+ F C+ C 45% 9% 45% D- C- C- A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+
1.18 53% 60% 29% +1 -1 1.02 32% 1.3 .39 11% .24 79% .19 0.98 52% 60% 32% -2 +2 1.02 33% 0.5 .17 14% .09 40% .04



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 85.6% 64.3% 21.2% 10.4 0.1 0.8 6.7 34.5 43.1 0.4 14.4 59.5%
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 85.6% 64.3% 21.2% 10.4 14.4 59.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 64.3% 100.0% 10.3 0.1 1.2 9.5 43.2 45.7 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 35.7% 59.5% 10.6 0.2 1.6 18.8 38.3 0.6