Preseason Rankings
Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#266
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#257
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#281
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#242
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 9.5% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 14.4 14.7
.500 or above 41.1% 77.1% 40.8%
.500 or above in Conference 49.0% 78.1% 48.7%
Conference Champion 6.7% 19.1% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 1.7% 7.2%
First Four1.1% 1.7% 1.1%
First Round6.0% 10.7% 5.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 411 - 814 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2025 16   @ Tennessee L 51-77 1%    
  Nov 12, 2025 152   @ East Tennessee St. L 61-70 21%    
  Nov 20, 2025 299   @ Central Michigan L 67-68 45%    
  Nov 24, 2025 174   Eastern Kentucky L 69-71 44%    
  Nov 26, 2025 206   Wofford L 65-66 50%    
  Nov 29, 2025 277   Boston University W 65-61 63%    
  Dec 03, 2025 232   Cleveland St. W 66-65 55%    
  Dec 06, 2025 192   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 68-75 28%    
  Dec 13, 2025 320   Bellarmine W 73-66 72%    
  Dec 17, 2025 197   Oakland L 65-66 48%    
  Dec 21, 2025 123   College of Charleston L 70-75 34%    
  Dec 29, 2025 207   @ Robert Morris L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 01, 2026 359   IU Indianapolis W 73-61 85%    
  Jan 04, 2026 179   Youngstown St. L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 09, 2026 214   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 11, 2026 314   @ Green Bay L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 15, 2026 309   Detroit Mercy W 71-65 68%    
  Jan 17, 2026 207   Robert Morris W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 24, 2026 191   @ Wright St. L 67-74 28%    
  Jan 30, 2026 309   @ Detroit Mercy L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 01, 2026 197   @ Oakland L 62-69 29%    
  Feb 04, 2026 314   Green Bay W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 07, 2026 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 12, 2026 359   @ IU Indianapolis W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 18, 2026 192   Purdue Fort Wayne L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 21, 2026 179   @ Youngstown St. L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 25, 2026 232   @ Cleveland St. L 63-68 35%    
  Feb 28, 2026 191   Wright St. L 70-71 48%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 6.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 2.6 3.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.4 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 4.1 1.5 0.1 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.2 4.2 1.5 0.1 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 3.9 1.4 0.1 11.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.1 2.9 1.1 0.1 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 8.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.9 5.9 7.8 8.7 10.3 10.3 10.0 9.3 8.5 7.0 5.4 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 98.1% 0.6    0.6 0.1
17-3 89.7% 1.2    0.9 0.2 0.0
16-4 70.6% 1.7    1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 43.9% 1.8    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 15.2% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 4.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 59.5% 59.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 64.6% 64.6% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.6% 44.3% 44.3% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-3 1.3% 34.2% 34.2% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9
16-4 2.4% 26.7% 26.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.8
15-5 4.1% 18.5% 18.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.3
14-6 5.4% 16.5% 16.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 4.6
13-7 7.0% 11.7% 11.7% 17.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 6.2
12-8 8.5% 7.4% 7.4% 17.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 7.8
11-9 9.3% 5.5% 5.5% 18.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 8.8
10-10 10.0% 3.8% 3.8% 19.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.6
9-11 10.3% 1.8% 1.8% 18.6 0.0 0.2 10.1
8-12 10.3% 1.0% 1.0% 17.8 0.0 0.1 10.2
7-13 8.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.6
6-14 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 32.0 0.0 7.8
5-15 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.9
4-16 3.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-17 2.5% 2.5
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 2.0 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%