Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#157
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#77
Pace77.3#26
Improvement+1.8#68

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#197
First Shot-1.0#199
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#184
Layup/Dunks+1.7#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#222
Freethrows-2.5#312
Improvement+1.9#50

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#125
First Shot+2.4#92
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#277
Layups/Dunks-2.1#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#94
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#139
Freethrows+1.9#72
Improvement-0.1#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.1% 28.0% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 99.3% 99.8% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.2% 98.4%
Conference Champion 40.6% 46.7% 38.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round24.1% 28.0% 22.6%
Second Round1.1% 1.5% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 28.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 35 - 6
Quad 418 - 323 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 18 @St. John's L 74-108 4%     0 - 1 -13.8 -1.0 -7.3
  Thu, Nov 6 240 Central Connecticut St. W 71-49 77%     1 - 1 +14.3 -2.9 +17.5
  Tue, Nov 11 78 Yale L 60-97 34%     1 - 2 -32.6 -17.0 -14.9
  Sun, Nov 16 335 @Maine W 70-64 77%     2 - 2 -1.8 -1.9 +0.2
  Sun, Nov 23 102 @Pittsburgh W 83-75 24%     3 - 2 +15.6 +14.0 +1.8
  Tue, Nov 25 55 @Central Florida L 91-102 12%     3 - 3 +1.9 +13.1 -10.0
  Sun, Nov 30 339 Stonehill W 76-62 90%     4 - 3 +0.1 +0.3 +0.0
  Fri, Dec 5 172 @Iona W 89-68 42%     5 - 3 1 - 0 +23.1 +13.5 +8.7
  Sun, Dec 7 348 Rider W 72-58 91%     6 - 3 2 - 0 -0.9 -2.7 +2.1
  Sat, Dec 13 303 Umass Lowell W 75-71 84%     7 - 3 -6.5 -8.2 +1.4
  Wed, Dec 17 237 @Monmouth W 85-75 55%     8 - 3 +8.7 +8.7 -0.2
  Sun, Dec 21 115 @Hofstra L 71-77 28%    
  Mon, Dec 29 163 Marist W 72-69 62%    
  Fri, Jan 2 319 @Manhattan W 83-76 73%    
  Sun, Jan 4 302 Mount St. Mary's W 81-70 84%    
  Sun, Jan 11 268 @Sacred Heart W 82-79 60%    
  Wed, Jan 14 290 St. Peter's W 76-66 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 266 @Merrimack W 73-70 60%    
  Mon, Jan 19 319 Manhattan W 86-73 87%    
  Thu, Jan 22 302 @Mount St. Mary's W 78-73 66%    
  Sat, Jan 24 163 @Marist L 69-72 40%    
  Fri, Jan 30 268 Sacred Heart W 85-76 79%    
  Sun, Feb 1 301 @Fairfield W 78-73 66%    
  Thu, Feb 5 342 Canisius W 76-62 90%    
  Sat, Feb 7 353 Niagara W 79-63 93%    
  Fri, Feb 13 171 @Siena L 72-74 43%    
  Sun, Feb 15 266 Merrimack W 76-67 79%    
  Sun, Feb 22 301 Fairfield W 81-70 83%    
  Fri, Feb 27 353 @Niagara W 76-66 82%    
  Sun, Mar 1 342 @Canisius W 73-65 77%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 4.5 9.0 11.7 8.9 4.4 1.1 40.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 5.2 8.7 6.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.3 6.1 3.5 0.7 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.0 6.5 9.9 14.2 16.9 16.4 14.0 9.2 4.4 1.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
19-1 99.8% 4.4    4.3 0.1
18-2 96.3% 8.9    7.9 0.9 0.0
17-3 83.4% 11.7    8.3 3.1 0.2 0.0
16-4 55.2% 9.0    4.8 3.5 0.7 0.0
15-5 26.6% 4.5    1.4 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.6% 40.6 28.0 10.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.1% 47.1% 47.1% 12.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
19-1 4.4% 42.2% 42.2% 12.7 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 2.5
18-2 9.2% 37.4% 37.4% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.0 0.1 5.8
17-3 14.0% 33.0% 33.0% 13.6 0.3 1.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.4
16-4 16.4% 27.5% 27.5% 13.9 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.8 0.0 11.9
15-5 16.9% 23.1% 23.1% 14.2 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.3 0.0 13.0
14-6 14.2% 18.9% 18.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.1 11.5
13-7 9.9% 14.1% 14.1% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 8.5
12-8 6.5% 11.7% 11.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 5.7
11-9 4.0% 8.9% 8.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.6
10-10 2.0% 3.6% 3.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
9-11 0.9% 3.4% 3.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
8-12 0.3% 0.3
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.1% 24.1% 0.0% 13.8 0.2 1.9 6.7 9.4 5.3 0.7 75.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.6 40.4 54.4 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%