Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#114
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#101
Pace65.5#285
Improvement+2.9#30

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#126
First Shot+2.4#112
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#245
Layup/Dunks-0.7#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#125
Freethrows+0.5#142
Improvement+3.8#7

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#108
First Shot+1.5#121
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#160
Layups/Dunks+3.2#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#222
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#206
Freethrows-0.9#240
Improvement-1.0#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.7% 21.9% 17.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 95.9% 97.5% 91.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 93.7% 89.9%
Conference Champion 28.4% 30.4% 22.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round20.7% 21.9% 17.1%
Second Round2.5% 2.8% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 4
Quad 36 - 58 - 9
Quad 412 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 57 @Central Florida L 78-82 19%     0 - 1 +8.5 +6.1 +2.5
  Fri, Nov 7 171 @Iona L 73-81 55%     0 - 2 -5.9 -3.4 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 14 304 @Bucknell W 83-77 78%     1 - 2 +1.1 +4.3 -3.6
  Wed, Nov 19 158 @Temple L 76-81 51%     1 - 3 -1.8 +1.3 -3.2
  Fri, Nov 28 239 La Salle W 63-58 77%     2 - 3 +0.7 -6.9 +7.8
  Sat, Nov 29 271 Merrimack W 78-58 81%     3 - 3 +14.2 +6.8 +8.3
  Sun, Nov 30 256 @Penn W 77-60 70%     4 - 3 +14.8 +5.5 +10.1
  Wed, Dec 3 137 @Columbia L 70-72 45%     4 - 4 +2.6 +3.6 -1.2
  Sun, Dec 7 107 @Pittsburgh W 80-73 36%     5 - 4 +13.9 +19.9 -5.1
  Sat, Dec 13 68 @Syracuse W 70-69 23%     6 - 4 +12.0 +17.7 -5.5
  Sun, Dec 21 169 Quinnipiac W 77-70 75%    
  Mon, Dec 29 228 Campbell W 78-68 83%    
  Sat, Jan 3 272 @Drexel W 71-65 72%    
  Thu, Jan 8 139 @Towson L 66-67 46%    
  Sat, Jan 10 220 Monmouth W 76-66 82%    
  Thu, Jan 15 197 @Stony Brook W 70-67 60%    
  Sat, Jan 17 190 Elon W 79-71 78%    
  Thu, Jan 22 310 @N.C. A&T W 77-68 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 121 @William & Mary L 76-79 41%    
  Thu, Jan 29 170 College of Charleston W 74-67 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 220 @Monmouth W 73-69 64%    
  Thu, Feb 5 209 Northeastern W 75-65 81%    
  Sat, Feb 7 139 Towson W 69-64 67%    
  Thu, Feb 12 170 @College of Charleston W 71-70 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 108 @UNC Wilmington L 68-71 38%    
  Thu, Feb 19 229 Hampton W 73-63 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 209 @Northeastern W 72-68 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 197 Stony Brook W 73-64 78%    
  Tue, Mar 3 272 Drexel W 74-62 86%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 3.5 7.6 8.1 5.6 2.4 0.6 28.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.8 7.7 5.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.2 6.8 3.9 0.9 0.1 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.7 6.0 9.6 13.1 15.2 15.6 14.1 10.3 5.9 2.4 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.3% 2.4    2.3 0.1
16-2 93.9% 5.6    4.9 0.6 0.0
15-3 78.6% 8.1    5.6 2.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 53.5% 7.6    3.7 3.1 0.8 0.0
13-5 22.7% 3.5    0.9 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.4% 28.4 17.9 8.0 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 51.2% 48.8% 2.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4.7%
17-1 2.4% 45.4% 45.1% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 0.5%
16-2 5.9% 38.4% 38.3% 0.1% 11.9 0.4 1.6 0.2 3.6 0.1%
15-3 10.3% 32.3% 32.3% 12.2 0.3 2.1 0.9 0.0 7.0
14-4 14.1% 27.8% 27.8% 12.5 0.1 2.1 1.6 0.2 10.2
13-5 15.6% 24.0% 24.0% 12.7 0.0 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 11.8
12-6 15.2% 18.3% 18.3% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 12.4
11-7 13.1% 14.2% 14.2% 13.3 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 11.3
10-8 9.6% 7.9% 7.9% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 8.8
9-9 6.0% 6.6% 6.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.6
8-10 3.7% 4.4% 4.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.6
7-11 2.1% 3.6% 3.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.7% 20.7% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 8.6 7.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 79.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.7 1.5 2.9 2.9 5.9 5.9 17.6 20.6 35.3 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 12.0% 10.3 8.0 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 3.8% 11.0 3.8