Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.6 #321
Expected Predictive Rating -11.0 #329
Pace 72.1 #93
Improvement -1.3 #246

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #314 D+ C F+ C- C
Defense #292 D+ D+ D- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.03 #317 -0.6 #197
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #126 0.83 #72 +1.8 #86
Three Pointers 35% #310 0.96 #255 -4.0 #311
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #261 -2.8 #260
Freethrows 0.31 #162 64% #361 0.20 #246
Second Chance 29.5% #217 1.04 #179 0.31 #197
Turnovers 19.9% #347
Total Offense -5.5 #314

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #16 1.19 #220 -5.2 #342
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #189 0.81 #274 -0.5 #221
Three Pointers 34% #351 1.12 #306 +2.1 #109
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #291 -3.5 #292
Freethrows 0.28 #104 75% #324 0.21 #149
Second Chance 33.0% #285 1.12 #283 0.37 #296
Turnovers 13.2% #339
Total Defense -4.1 #292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #200 1.2% #277
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.4% #274 5.6% #288
Possession Length 17.5 #191 16.1 #24
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #223 0.19 #255
Improvement -3.8 #345 +2.4 #55

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 7.5% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 1.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 47.2% 67.6% 31.2%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 0.7% 4.1%
First Four6.6% 7.1% 6.2%
First Round3.5% 3.8% 3.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Away) - 44.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 410 - 1010 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 10 @Connecticut L 47 - 110 1% -42  0 - 1 -40 -16 F D+ F -20 F F D
 Mon, Nov 10 339 New Haven L 67 - 73 68% +1  0 - 2 -21 -9 F A+ D+ -12 F+ F C
 Thu, Nov 13 169 @Columbia L 72 - 86 14% -1  0 - 3 -12 +0 B- D F -12 D- D- B+
 Sun, Nov 16 69 @Wake Forest L 75 - 109 4% -15  0 - 4 -23 +2 B D- C -22 F+ F F
 Wed, Nov 19 127 @Bradley L 77 - 87 9% +0  0 - 5 -5 +9 C C C -15 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 230 @St. Peter's L 66 - 68 20% -2  0 - 6 -3 -6 A- D F +3 A- F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 337 @Stonehill W 75 - 64 44% +5  1 - 6 +3 +5 D+ C+ C+ -2 B+ C F
 Sat, Dec 6 170 @Massachusetts L 60 - 80 14% -8  1 - 7 -18 -16 D- D+ F -0 C- B C-
 Sat, Dec 13 177 @Quinnipiac L 71 - 75 15% +1  1 - 8 -2 -5 A- F F +2 B F D
 Tue, Dec 16 277 Sacred Heart W 87 - 82 50% -0  2 - 8 -5 +3 C C- B- -8 F C+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 286 @Boston University L 76 - 88 29% -9  2 - 9 -16 +4 B- B- F -21 F F D+
 Mon, Dec 29 23 @Iowa L 62 - 90 1% -19  2 - 10 -9 +3 B C D- -14 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 316 Albany W 83 - 71 61% +10  3 - 10 1 - 0 -0 +7 D+ A+ C -7 B- F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 348 @Bryant W 77 - 63 48% +6  4 - 10 2 - 0 +5 +8 B- B+ F+ -2 D+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 362 @Binghamton W 73 - 68 63% +6  5 - 10 3 - 0 -8 -5 D D F+ -3 D+ C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 332 NJIT L 64 - 73 65% -10  5 - 11 3 - 1 -23 -14 F D F+ -9 C- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 200 Vermont L 68 - 77 34% -5  5 - 12 3 - 2 -14 -6 F+ B+ F -9 D A- F
 Sat, Jan 24 260 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 56 - 79 25% -12  5 - 13 3 - 3 -26 -16 F F+ C -11 C- F+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 314 @New Hampshire L 61 - 66 37% -3  5 - 14 3 - 4 -11 -12 F+ C- D +0 B- B- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 336 @Maine L 66 - 67 44%
 Thu, Feb 5 332 @NJIT L 73 - 75 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 316 @Albany L 73 - 76 37%
 Thu, Feb 12 348 Bryant W 73 - 67 69%
 Thu, Feb 19 314 New Hampshire W 74 - 71 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 362 Binghamton W 77 - 68 81%
 Thu, Feb 26 200 @Vermont L 67 - 77 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 260 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 74 - 75 47%
 Tue, Mar 3 336 @Maine L 66 - 67 44%
Totals 9 - 19 7 - 9 -10 -6 D+ C F+ -4 D+ D+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 2.6 1.1 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.4 7.8 3.1 0.4 13.7 3rd
4th 1.3 8.9 6.3 0.5 17.0 4th
5th 0.6 8.2 8.8 1.0 0.0 18.5 5th
6th 0.2 6.4 11.3 1.9 19.8 6th
7th 0.2 3.7 9.2 3.2 0.0 16.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 4.0 1.8 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
Total 0.3 2.4 8.1 18.0 24.0 22.2 16.4 6.4 2.0 0.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 83.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 24.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.3% 15.1% 15.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 2.0% 15.7% 15.7% 16.0 0.3 1.7
10-6 6.4% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.7 5.8
9-7 16.4% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 1.6 14.8
8-8 22.2% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 1.7 20.5
7-9 24.0% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 1.6 22.4
6-10 18.0% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.7 17.3
5-11 8.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 7.9
4-12 2.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-13 0.3% 0.3
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 16.0 93.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%