Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #186
Expected Predictive Rating -3.5 #222
Pace 66.9 #231
Improvement +3.0 #56

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #261 D+ C C- C D+
Defense #123 C- B- C+ B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #191 1.08 #271 -1.7 #244
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #86 0.67 #305 +0.7 #144
Three Pointers 37% #273 1.01 #200 -2.4 #265
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #280 -3.4 #281
Freethrows 0.30 #208 72% #196 0.21 #196
Second Chance 30.5% #184 1.08 #123 0.33 #149
Turnovers 17.2% #239
Total Offense -3.2 #261

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #122 1.13 #137 -0.7 #201
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #265 0.74 #143 +1.1 #104
Three Pointers 41% #179 1.08 #277 -1.5 #257
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #210 -1.1 #212
Freethrows 0.27 #88 71% #88 0.19 #76
Second Chance 32.6% #273 0.84 #8 0.27 #78
Turnovers 17.6% #97
Total Defense +1.4 #123

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #270 1.0% #263
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.4% #271 1.1% #202
Possession Length 18.0 #235 17.8 #255
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #90 0.17 #193
Improvement -1.7 #278 +4.8 #7

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 5.7% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 35.5% 40.4% 16.7%
.500 or above in Conference 63.9% 69.8% 41.0%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.5% 6.3%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round5.2% 5.6% 3.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 79.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 410 - 715 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 202 @La Salle L 60 - 73 42% -3  0 - 1 -13 -9 D C F -5 C- B- C
 Thu, Nov 13 53 @Seton Hall L 58 - 70 9% -2  0 - 2 +1 -1 F A+ F +2 B- A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 76 @Syracuse L 73 - 78 12% -5  0 - 3 +6 +5 C+ D B- +1 C C+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 203 Robert Morris W 71 - 70 OT 65% -1  1 - 3 -5 -5 F B C +0 B C C-
 Fri, Nov 28 295 Ball St. W 80 - 73 71% +4  2 - 3 -1 +8 C B A -9 F B C-
 Sat, Nov 29 275 Le Moyne L 79 - 83 67% -1  2 - 4 -10 +4 F A+ B+ -15 F C- C+
 Sun, Nov 30 316 @Lafayette W 88 - 74 67% +13  3 - 4 +8 +12 A F C- -4 D B- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 212 Princeton W 63 - 58 66% +3  4 - 4 -1 -9 D F C +8 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 111 @Georgia Tech L 67 - 79 21% -2  4 - 5 -5 -1 D- C+ A+ -4 C- B- A-
 Sun, Dec 14 272 @Fairfield L 65 - 73 55% -0  4 - 6 -11 -4 D D C- -8 F+ D+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 176 Quinnipiac L 75 - 85 60% -15  4 - 7 -14 -1 D+ F D+ -13 F C C-
 Sun, Dec 21 304 Lehigh W 76 - 62 82% +7  5 - 7 +3 +2 A F F +1 F B- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 207 Campbell L 65 - 68 65% +2  5 - 8 0 - 1 -9 -7 F D+ A+ -2 A F+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 163 @Towson W 62 - 48 33% +7  6 - 8 1 - 1 +17 -0 C C F +18 A A+ C
 Thu, Jan 8 133 William & Mary W 81 - 70 48% +3  7 - 8 2 - 1 +10 +6 C+ A- A- +4 B D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 129 @Hofstra L 64 - 67 OT 26% +1  7 - 9 2 - 2 +2 -10 F F+ D +12 A+ A C+
 Thu, Jan 15 201 Drexel L 51 - 73 64% -14  7 - 10 2 - 3 -28 -14 F D+ F -18 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 256 Northeastern W 81 - 68 73% +1  8 - 10 3 - 3 +5 -0 D B- A+ +5 C A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 235 @Hampton L 63 - 65 47% -3  8 - 11 3 - 4 -3 -4 D B F +0 B- D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 207 @Campbell W 88 - 73 42% +5  9 - 11 4 - 4 +15 +11 A A F +4 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 293 N.C. A&T W 78 - 69 79%
 Sat, Jan 31 129 Hofstra L 69 - 70 47%
 Thu, Feb 5 238 @Stony Brook L 67 - 68 47%
 Thu, Feb 12 201 @Drexel L 64 - 66 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 163 Towson W 65 - 63 56%
 Thu, Feb 19 121 @UNC Wilmington L 65 - 72 24%
 Sat, Feb 21 160 @College of Charleston L 69 - 74 32%
 Thu, Feb 26 238 Stony Brook W 70 - 65 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 193 Elon W 75 - 72 61%
 Tue, Mar 3 256 @Northeastern W 76 - 75 51%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 9 -2 -3 D+ C C- +1 C- B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 1.8 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 5.6 1.9 0.1 9.6 3rd
4th 0.6 6.8 4.2 0.2 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 3.9 7.9 1.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.9 9.4 2.9 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.1 4.7 6.8 0.3 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 7.6 1.9 10.6 8th
9th 0.2 3.9 4.4 0.2 8.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.7 0.8 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.5 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
Total 0.1 1.4 4.7 11.4 18.5 22.9 20.2 13.1 5.9 1.5 0.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 80.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 49.4% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 12.2% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 32.0% 32.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.5% 16.2% 16.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
12-6 5.9% 14.5% 14.5% 14.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 5.1
11-7 13.1% 10.6% 10.6% 14.6 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.0 11.7
10-8 20.2% 6.9% 6.9% 14.9 0.2 1.0 0.1 18.8
9-9 22.9% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 22.2
8-10 18.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 18.1
7-11 11.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 11.2
6-12 4.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.7
5-13 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 14.7 94.7 0.0%