Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #292
Expected Predictive Rating -7.9 #290
Pace 74.3 #49
Improvement +7.5 #3

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #293 D+ C- D D- C
Defense #261 D+ C D- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #107 1.16 #163 +1.7 #116
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #163 0.60 #348 -1.4 #254
Three Pointers 38% #254 0.94 #275 -3.1 #293
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #259 -2.8 #258
Freethrows 0.24 #338 70% #270 0.17 #342
Second Chance 28.1% #250 1.01 #221 0.28 #252
Turnovers 18.6% #314
Total Offense -4.5 #293

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.12 #131 -1.8 #241
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #141 0.79 #245 -0.8 #246
Three Pointers 35% #330 1.19 #353 -0.2 #188
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #269 -2.8 #270
Freethrows 0.26 #50 71% #126 0.18 #49
Second Chance 32.8% #279 0.98 #96 0.32 #188
Turnovers 13.2% #341
Total Defense -2.7 #261

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #177 0.3% #197
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.7% #277 5.2% #279
Possession Length 17.0 #139 16.3 #28
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #171 0.19 #238
Improvement +4.1 #15 +3.3 #30

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.4% 9.8% 1.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.1% 18.8% 55.4%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 33.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 112 - 17
Quad 45 - 57 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 77 @Arizona St. L 64 - 81 6% -11  0 - 1 -7 -8 F B- D +2 D A A-
 Sat, Nov 8 191 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 95 41% -11  0 - 2 -28 -5 D+ D B -23 F C- C
 Sat, Nov 15 242 @Nebraska Omaha L 85 - 90 29% -3  0 - 3 -7 +6 B D- C+ -12 F A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 11 @Gonzaga L 50 - 122 1% -34  0 - 4 -49 -19 F D- F -20 F F+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 128 @Washington St. L 74 - 98 13% -12  0 - 5 -19 -0 B+ F F -18 D+ F F
 Fri, Nov 28 206 @Robert Morris L 54 - 61 24% -11  0 - 6 -7 -16 F C- F +8 A+ C+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 325 Stetson W 70 - 68 61% -3  1 - 6 -8 -7 D D- F+ -1 D+ D B+
 Sat, Dec 6 182 @Oregon St. L 70 - 81 21% -11  1 - 7 -10 -3 D A- F -6 F B- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 45 @Washington L 69 - 105 3% -18  1 - 8 -21 +1 A- F C -22 F C F
 Thu, Dec 18 306 @Northern Arizona L 57 - 65 43% -0  1 - 9 -13 -17 F+ F F +3 B- C- F+
 Mon, Dec 29 219 @Utah Tech L 66 - 80 25% -2  1 - 10 0 - 1 -14 -9 D- D+ F -5 D+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 153 Texas Arlington L 77 - 86 33% -1  1 - 11 0 - 2 -12 +3 B C- D -15 F A- D
 Thu, Jan 8 101 @Utah Valley L 72 - 89 9% -10  1 - 12 0 - 3 -9 +2 C+ C C -10 D- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 141 @California Baptist L 55 - 58 14% -6  1 - 13 0 - 4 +1 -6 F A+ F +7 A+ D F
 Thu, Jan 15 212 Tarleton St. W 106 - 105 OT 45% +5  2 - 13 1 - 4 -5 +7 C+ B B- -12 F+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 17 259 Abilene Christian W 74 - 52 55% +11  3 - 13 2 - 4 +13 -2 C- C D- +15 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 21 101 Utah Valley W 84 - 70 19% +4  4 - 13 3 - 4 +16 +12 A+ A- F +3 A+ B F
 Sat, Jan 24 219 @Utah Tech L 91 - 102 25% -8  4 - 14 3 - 5 -11 +15 B- B- A- -26 F+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 153 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 80 16% -14  4 - 15 3 - 6 -16 -7 F+ F C+ -9 D+ C- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 259 @Abilene Christian L 70 - 75 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 212 Tarleton St. L 78 - 79 46%
 Thu, Feb 12 141 California Baptist L 70 - 75 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 153 @Texas Arlington L 65 - 76 16%
 Thu, Feb 19 212 @Tarleton St. L 75 - 82 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 259 @Abilene Christian L 70 - 75 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 219 Utah Tech L 75 - 76 46%
 Thu, Mar 5 101 Utah Valley L 72 - 81 20%
 Sat, Mar 7 141 California Baptist L 70 - 75 31%
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 12 -7 -5 D+ C- D -3 D+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.6 3.3 5.0 2.0 0.2 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 2.9 10.4 11.9 4.4 0.3 30.0 5th
6th 3.1 13.1 11.1 1.9 0.1 29.4 6th
7th 5.3 12.5 8.1 1.6 0.0 27.4 7th
Total 5.3 15.6 24.1 23.7 17.1 9.8 3.5 0.9 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 11.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 7.1% 0.1    0.1
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.9% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 3.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.4
8-10 9.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.7
7-11 17.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 17.0
6-12 23.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 23.5
5-13 24.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 23.9
4-14 15.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.6
3-15 5.3% 5.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.5%