Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#318
Expected Predictive Rating-12.3#328
Pace73.4#73
Improvement+0.7#131

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#308
First Shot-3.3#271
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#304
Layup/Dunks+7.2#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#346
Freethrows-3.9#347
Improvement-0.5#222

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#310
First Shot-6.4#351
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#39
Layups/Dunks-5.5#342
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#322
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#241
Freethrows+3.1#27
Improvement+1.2#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 4.7% 7.2% 3.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 64.5% 57.9% 66.9%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 112 - 17
Quad 44 - 66 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 61 @Arizona St. L 64-81 3%     0 - 1 -4.9 -6.3 +2.0
  Sat, Nov 8 208 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-95 38%     0 - 2 -29.1 -5.2 -22.9
  Sat, Nov 15 235 @Nebraska Omaha L 85-90 22%     0 - 3 -6.1 +5.0 -10.8
  Mon, Nov 17 5 @Gonzaga L 50-122 0.5%    0 - 4 -47.2 -18.6 -18.3
  Wed, Nov 19 165 @Washington St. L 74-98 14%     0 - 5 -21.4 -1.7 -19.0
  Fri, Nov 28 182 @Robert Morris L 54-61 16%     0 - 6 -5.6 -12.8 +6.6
  Sat, Nov 29 346 Stetson W 70-68 60%     1 - 6 -9.9 -7.9 -2.0
  Sat, Dec 6 157 @Oregon St. L 70-81 13%     1 - 7 -7.9 -1.4 -6.4
  Sat, Dec 13 47 @Washington L 69-105 3%     1 - 8 -22.1 +0.6 -22.0
  Thu, Dec 18 270 @Northern Arizona L 70-76 27%    
  Mon, Dec 29 262 @Utah Tech L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Jan 3 177 Texas Arlington L 68-73 32%    
  Thu, Jan 8 84 @Utah Valley L 64-83 4%    
  Sat, Jan 10 127 @California Baptist L 65-80 9%    
  Thu, Jan 15 199 Tarleton St. L 74-78 36%    
  Sat, Jan 17 221 Abilene Christian L 69-72 40%    
  Wed, Jan 21 84 Utah Valley L 67-80 12%    
  Sat, Jan 24 262 @Utah Tech L 70-77 27%    
  Thu, Jan 29 177 @Texas Arlington L 65-76 16%    
  Sat, Jan 31 221 @Abilene Christian L 66-75 21%    
  Sat, Feb 7 199 Tarleton St. L 74-78 37%    
  Thu, Feb 12 127 California Baptist L 68-77 22%    
  Sat, Feb 14 177 @Texas Arlington L 65-76 16%    
  Thu, Feb 19 199 @Tarleton St. L 71-81 20%    
  Sat, Feb 21 221 @Abilene Christian L 66-75 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 262 Utah Tech L 73-74 48%    
  Thu, Mar 5 84 Utah Valley L 67-80 12%    
  Sat, Mar 7 127 California Baptist L 68-77 23%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 4.5 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.4 2.4 6.6 8.9 5.0 1.3 0.1 24.8 6th
7th 2.7 8.3 13.3 14.2 9.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 53.0 7th
Total 2.7 8.3 13.7 16.6 16.8 14.8 10.6 7.3 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 72.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 26.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 13.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 19.2% 19.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.2% 7.7% 7.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.6% 7.3% 7.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 1.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
9-9 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.5
8-10 4.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.5
7-11 7.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.2
6-12 10.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.5
5-13 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.7
4-14 16.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.8
3-15 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.6
2-16 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.7
1-17 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.3
0-18 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%