Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +19.7 #11
Expected Predictive Rating +26.3 #6
Pace 74.3 #50
Improvement -6.0 #360

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #16 A- A- B+ C- D+
Defense #13 A- A A- B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #137 1.37 #11 +5.3 #27
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #61 0.90 #33 +4.4 #20
Three Pointers 33% #331 1.12 #54 -2.5 #271
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #22 +7.2 #21
Freethrows 0.29 #221 69% #282 0.20 #240
Second Chance 37.1% #25 1.16 #43 0.43 #26
Turnovers 13.4% #26
Total Offense +10.3 #16

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #355 1.01 #30 +8.0 #8
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #14 0.67 #50 -1.7 #307
Three Pointers 43% #105 0.89 #40 +1.5 #125
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #10 +7.8 #10
Freethrows 0.28 #109 68% #26 0.19 #72
Second Chance 23.5% #11 0.89 #24 0.21 #6
Turnovers 20.6% #16
Total Defense +9.4 #13

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #286 -3.4% #11
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.8% #9 -12.3% #16
Possession Length 15.1 #20 18.4 #313
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #25 0.12 #31
Improvement -2.8 #326 -3.2 #335

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 7.6% 8.8% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 22.7% 26.0% 5.3%
Top 4 Seed 71.7% 75.8% 49.6%
Top 6 Seed 97.1% 98.0% 91.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
Average Seed 3.7 3.5 4.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.5% 97.0% 74.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round93.2% 94.1% 88.6%
Sweet Sixteen58.4% 60.0% 49.9%
Elite Eight28.7% 29.9% 22.2%
Final Four14.0% 14.6% 10.4%
Championship Game6.2% 6.4% 4.7%
National Champion2.7% 2.9% 1.6%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Home) - 84.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 16 - 2
Quad 28 - 013 - 2
Quad 39 - 023 - 2
Quad 48 - 031 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 306 Texas Southern W 98 - 43 99% +20  1 - 0 +44 +16 C+ A+ D- +26 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 54 Oklahoma W 83 - 68 88% +13  2 - 0 +22 +7 B C+ A+ +15 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 55 Creighton W 90 - 63 88% +11  3 - 0 +34 +15 A+ C A +18 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 77 @Arizona St. W 77 - 65 81% +7  4 - 0 +23 +8 C B- C- +15 A+ B+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 282 Southern Utah W 122 - 50 99% +34  5 - 0 +62 +27 A+ A+ B +24 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 16 Alabama W 95 - 85 56% +1  6 - 0 +28 +20 B+ A+ C+ +8 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 106 Maryland W 100 - 61 92% +19  7 - 0 +43 +30 A+ A+ C +14 A+ B A+
 Wed, Nov 26 1 Michigan L 61 - 101 31% -25  7 - 1 -15 -7 D+ D+ A -4 F A+ B
 Fri, Dec 5 27 Kentucky W 94 - 59 67% +21  8 - 1 +50 +28 A+ A- A+ +22 A+ A- C+
 Sun, Dec 7 348 North Florida W 109 - 58 100% +26  9 - 1 +36 +13 B+ A+ D +18 A+ A A
 Sat, Dec 13 34 UCLA W 82 - 72 71% +2  10 - 1 +24 +21 A+ F+ A+ +4 C- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 207 Campbell W 98 - 70 98% +14  11 - 1 +22 +6 A- C+ D+ +12 B A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 79 Oregon W 91 - 82 87% +4  12 - 1 +16 +25 A B- A+ -8 C D- C-
 Sun, Dec 28 281 @Pepperdine W 96 - 56 98% +22  13 - 1 1 - 0 +36 +22 A+ C+ A- +13 A+ C- C+
 Tue, Dec 30 208 @San Diego W 99 - 93 95% +10  14 - 1 2 - 0 +6 +14 B A+ C -8 F B+ D-
 Fri, Jan 2 124 Seattle W 80 - 72 OT 96% -6  15 - 1 3 - 0 +7 +7 C+ C+ A+ -0 B C- B-
 Sun, Jan 4 162 Loyola Marymount W 82 - 47 97% +15  16 - 1 4 - 0 +32 +12 A+ B A+ +21 A+ A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 50 Santa Clara W 89 - 77 86% +6  17 - 1 5 - 0 +20 +15 A+ A+ A- +4 A- A- A
 Thu, Jan 15 131 @Washington St. W 86 - 65 91% +10  18 - 1 6 - 0 +26 +16 C+ A+ B+ +10 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 124 @Seattle W 71 - 50 91% +8  19 - 1 7 - 0 +26 +7 C+ A+ C +19 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 281 Pepperdine W 84 - 60 99% +15  20 - 1 8 - 0 +14 +9 D A+ A+ +5 B B- A-
 Sat, Jan 24 98 San Francisco W 68 - 66 94% +8  21 - 1 9 - 0 +4 -2 D B- B+ +6 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 42 St. Mary's W 80 - 69 85%
 Wed, Feb 4 218 @Portland W 88 - 68 97%
 Sat, Feb 7 182 @Oregon St. W 84 - 66 96%
 Tue, Feb 10 131 Washington St. W 90 - 69 98%
 Sat, Feb 14 50 @Santa Clara W 83 - 77 70%
 Wed, Feb 18 98 @San Francisco W 81 - 69 86%
 Sat, Feb 21 123 Pacific W 84 - 64 97%
 Wed, Feb 25 218 Portland W 91 - 65 99%
 Sat, Feb 28 42 @St. Mary's W 77 - 72 67%
Totals 29 - 2 17 - 1 +20 +10 A- A- B+ +9 A- A A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.5 19.5 39.3 32.1 93.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.8 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.9 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.9 21.4 39.3 32.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 32.1    32.1
17-1 100.0% 39.3    38.2 1.2
16-2 91.4% 19.5    11.7 7.4 0.4
15-3 42.2% 2.5    0.5 1.4 0.6
14-4 5.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 93.5% 93.5 82.5 10.0 1.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 32.1% 100.0% 78.3% 21.7% 2.4 6.8 11.5 8.9 4.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
17-1 39.3% 100.0% 74.7% 25.3% 3.8 0.7 3.4 10.6 15.5 7.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 21.4% 99.9% 67.2% 32.7% 4.8 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.6 7.3 4.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-3 5.9% 99.8% 54.0% 45.8% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-4 1.2% 98.8% 48.5% 50.2% 6.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 72.7% 27.3% 3.7 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 25.2% 100.0% 2.2 25.1 39.7 26.6 8.1 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.2% 100.0% 3.0 7.3 23.6 31.4 32.9 4.1 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8% 100.0% 3.2 7.0 18.0 32.9 30.3 11.5 0.3