Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#270
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#260
Pace66.6#263
Improvement-2.0#309

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#260
First Shot-1.7#222
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#301
Layup/Dunks+3.2#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#264
Freethrows-3.8#347
Improvement-1.8#309

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#249
First Shot-3.1#278
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#124
Layups/Dunks-3.3#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#242
Freethrows+1.2#111
Improvement-0.2#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.3% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 9.1% 11.4% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 27.0% 29.6% 19.8%
Conference Champion 2.5% 2.9% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 28.4% 25.7% 35.5%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.5%
First Round2.4% 2.8% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 72.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 48 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 136 Drake L 71-77 24%     0 - 1 -4.4 -1.3 -3.2
  Tue, Nov 11 3 @Arizona L 49-84 1%     0 - 2 -9.5 -12.2 +3.2
  Mon, Nov 24 250 Cal Poly W 93-87 59%     1 - 2 -2.1 +5.0 -7.8
  Wed, Nov 26 214 Southeast Missouri St. W 79-72 52%     2 - 2 +0.7 +4.7 -4.0
  Wed, Dec 3 160 South Dakota St. L 62-75 39%     2 - 3 -15.9 -9.8 -6.4
  Sat, Dec 6 146 @North Dakota St. L 68-69 18%     2 - 4 +2.9 -3.2 +6.1
  Tue, Dec 9 61 @Arizona St. L 48-73 6%     2 - 5 -12.9 -16.5 +1.7
  Sat, Dec 13 248 @San Diego L 69-78 35%     2 - 6 -10.9 -2.3 -9.1
  Thu, Dec 18 316 Southern Utah W 76-70 73%    
  Sat, Dec 20 191 @Incarnate Word L 67-74 26%    
  Thu, Jan 1 205 @Montana L 72-78 29%    
  Sat, Jan 3 174 @Montana St. L 64-72 23%    
  Thu, Jan 8 212 Weber St. W 73-72 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 163 Idaho St. L 66-69 40%    
  Thu, Jan 15 279 @Sacramento St. L 73-75 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 177 @Portland St. L 65-73 24%    
  Mon, Jan 19 205 Montana W 75-74 50%    
  Sat, Jan 24 154 Northern Colorado L 71-74 39%    
  Thu, Jan 29 241 Eastern Washington W 77-75 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 172 Idaho L 71-73 44%    
  Thu, Feb 5 163 @Idaho St. L 63-72 22%    
  Sat, Feb 7 212 @Weber St. L 70-76 31%    
  Thu, Feb 12 177 Portland St. L 68-70 44%    
  Sat, Feb 14 279 Sacramento St. W 76-72 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 154 @Northern Colorado L 68-77 21%    
  Thu, Feb 26 172 @Idaho L 68-76 24%    
  Sat, Feb 28 241 @Eastern Washington L 74-78 35%    
  Mon, Mar 2 174 Montana St. L 67-69 44%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 3.2 0.9 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.6 1.5 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.4 2.3 0.1 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.1 3.8 0.3 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.2 4.5 0.7 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 6.3 4.5 0.9 0.0 16.9 9th
10th 0.3 1.3 3.3 5.2 5.6 3.0 0.7 0.0 19.3 10th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.5 6.4 9.9 12.2 13.6 13.8 12.2 9.9 7.2 4.7 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 91.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 82.2% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 54.0% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 23.0% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 4.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 18.3% 18.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 20.7% 20.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.5% 13.9% 13.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
12-6 2.7% 13.1% 13.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.4
11-7 4.7% 8.9% 8.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.3
10-8 7.2% 6.3% 6.3% 15.7 0.1 0.3 6.7
9-9 9.9% 5.2% 5.2% 15.9 0.0 0.5 9.4
8-10 12.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 11.9
7-11 13.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 13.6
6-12 13.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.4
5-13 12.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.1
4-14 9.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
3-15 6.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.3
2-16 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.4
1-17 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 97.0 0.0%