Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.0 #313
Expected Predictive Rating -9.6 #320
Pace 63.1 #324
Improvement -3.7 #321

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #246 C D C- D- C-
Defense #342 D D+ C C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #169 1.14 #198 -0.3 #189
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #85 0.69 #284 +1.0 #121
Three Pointers 36% #291 1.11 #58 -1.0 #216
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #182 -0.2 #182
Freethrows 0.26 #312 66% #347 0.17 #341
Second Chance 24.3% #332 0.98 #271 0.24 #336
Turnovers 17.2% #234
Total Offense -2.8 #246

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #152 1.17 #188 -0.9 #208
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #288 0.79 #230 +1.1 #110
Three Pointers 43% #109 1.19 #354 -4.8 #341
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #316 -4.6 #316
Freethrows 0.28 #100 74% #241 0.20 #123
Second Chance 34.1% #313 1.08 #234 0.37 #293
Turnovers 16.3% #186
Total Defense -6.2 #342

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #264 1.1% #268
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.7% #163 7.9% #320
Possession Length 19.0 #332 17.4 #188
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #311 0.15 #119
Improvement +1.7 #95 -5.4 #362

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 74.3% 61.8% 84.3%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 44.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 101 - 13
Quad 46 - 97 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 152 Drake L 71 - 77 19% -0  0 - 1 -6 -1 C- F+ A+ -5 D A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 2 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0% -24  0 - 2 -8 -11 D+ D- F +4 C+ C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 289 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 56% +0  1 - 2 -4 +4 B C C -9 F B C
 Wed, Nov 26 246 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 45% +7  2 - 2 -1 +5 C- A+ B- -5 B- C F+
 Wed, Dec 3 180 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 33% -6  2 - 3 -17 -12 F+ D- D- -6 B D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 137 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 11% -1  2 - 4 +3 -4 C D C +7 B C+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 77 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 5% -12  2 - 5 -14 -18 F F C +2 C+ B- A
 Sat, Dec 13 208 @San Diego L 69 - 78 19% -6  2 - 6 -9 -1 C+ C- F -9 D- F A-
 Thu, Dec 18 282 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 54% +0  3 - 6 -2 -7 D- D+ C+ +5 C+ A A-
 Sun, Dec 21 240 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 24% -10  3 - 7 -25 -5 B F F+ -21 F F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 161 @Montana L 64 - 78 13% -4  3 - 8 0 - 1 -11 -2 C- C F -10 F B- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 155 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 13% -7  3 - 9 0 - 2 -6 +4 B+ D- B -11 D- D D
 Thu, Jan 8 215 Weber St. L 65 - 78 40% -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -19 -5 D- D+ B+ -16 D+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 228 Idaho St. L 79 - 81 42% -2  3 - 11 0 - 4 -9 +8 D+ A+ D+ -17 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 15 294 @Sacramento St. L 69 - 83 34% -1  3 - 12 0 - 5 -19 -3 C F F+ -17 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 148 @Portland St. L 52 - 63 12% -5  3 - 13 0 - 6 -7 -8 C F D- -1 B- D C
 Mon, Jan 19 161 Montana L 72 - 98 28% -12  3 - 14 0 - 7 -29 +8 A+ F B+ -40 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 197 Northern Colorado W 81 - 77 36% +2  4 - 14 1 - 7 -1 +14 A+ B C -15 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 241 Eastern Washington L 74 - 76 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 188 Idaho L 70 - 74 36%
 Thu, Feb 5 228 @Idaho St. L 67 - 75 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 215 @Weber St. L 71 - 80 21%
 Thu, Feb 12 148 Portland St. L 66 - 73 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 294 Sacramento St. W 78 - 76 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 197 @Northern Colorado L 70 - 80 18%
 Thu, Feb 26 188 @Idaho L 67 - 77 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 241 @Eastern Washington L 71 - 79 24%
 Mon, Mar 2 155 Montana St. L 68 - 74 28%
Totals 7 - 21 4 - 14 -9 -3 C D C- -6 D D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.0 0.2 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.0 0.9 10.6 8th
9th 0.3 2.7 8.6 9.5 2.6 0.1 23.7 9th
10th 4.1 14.2 20.2 15.0 4.3 0.2 58.0 10th
Total 4.1 14.4 22.9 24.3 18.1 10.4 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.3% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 1.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 4.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.1
6-12 10.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.3
5-13 18.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 18.0
4-14 24.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 24.2
3-15 22.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.9
2-16 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
1-17 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.9%