Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.7 #182
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #159
Pace 64.3 #299
Improvement -1.6 #259

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #167 C C D+ A- C
Defense #225 C C D+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #294 1.06 #294 -4.1 #313
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #225 0.85 #62 -0.2 #181
Three Pointers 48% #52 1.03 #166 +3.8 #62
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #191 -0.5 #191
Freethrows 0.37 #19 77% #23 0.28 #8
Second Chance 24.8% #326 1.26 #10 0.31 #193
Turnovers 17.8% #270
Total Offense -0.2 #167

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #78 1.13 #134 -1.6 #236
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #284 0.76 #174 +1.3 #91
Three Pointers 40% #204 0.97 #117 +1.3 #134
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #151 +0.9 #150
Freethrows 0.33 #275 75% #318 0.25 #295
Second Chance 32.5% #267 0.96 #62 0.31 #153
Turnovers 14.4% #304
Total Defense -1.5 #225

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #191 1.4% #305
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.1% #191 -3.1% #124
Possession Length 17.7 #213 17.3 #174
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #342 0.18 #207
Improvement -0.3 #198 -1.3 #259

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 13.0 12.0
.500 or above 12.2% 22.2% 4.7%
.500 or above in Conference 9.6% 18.2% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.4% 2.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 37 - 89 - 15
Quad 45 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 137 North Dakota St. W 67 - 65 49% +1  1 - 0 +0 -3 C+ F C+ +4 B A F
 Fri, Nov 7 138 Illinois-Chicago W 76 - 73 50% +3  2 - 0 +1 +5 A- A+ F -3 D A+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 144 North Texas W 66 - 64 51% -6  3 - 0 +0 +5 C- D A+ -5 D- C A-
 Mon, Nov 17 79 @Oregon L 75 - 87 13% -7  3 - 1 -2 +9 C B- D+ -11 D C- D
 Fri, Nov 21 267 Evansville L 69 - 73 66% -4  3 - 2 -10 -2 F A+ D- -8 C+ D- D+
 Sat, Nov 22 225 Iona L 84 - 91 2OT 58% +5  3 - 3 -11 -4 C F D+ -6 C C D+
 Mon, Nov 24 171 Massachusetts L 65 - 73 47% -2  3 - 4 -9 -4 B- F F -5 B+ F+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 140 California Baptist L 69 - 75 50% -2  3 - 5 -8 -0 B F+ D- -8 D- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 198 Vermont W 80 - 58 64% +16  4 - 5 +16 +13 A+ D+ D +6 A- B+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 282 Southern Utah W 81 - 70 78% +11  5 - 5 +1 +4 B+ D+ F -3 B- F C
 Sat, Dec 13 155 Montana St. W 67 - 57 54% +4  6 - 5 +7 -1 F A D+ +10 A+ D- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 115 Sam Houston St. L 75 - 85 42% -8  6 - 6 -10 -2 C F+ B+ -7 C C- C
 Sun, Dec 21 77 @Arizona St. W 78 - 75 13% -1  7 - 6 +14 +12 A- F+ B- +1 A A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 28 50 Santa Clara L 64 - 102 18% -22  7 - 7 0 - 1 -30 -5 C D+ D -26 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 30 98 San Francisco W 70 - 62 35% +3  8 - 7 1 - 1 +10 +6 A+ F D +5 A+ B+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 123 @Pacific L 53 - 84 25% -17  8 - 8 1 - 2 -26 -10 F B- F+ -19 F C- D-
 Sun, Jan 4 131 @Washington St. L 67 - 81 27% -11  8 - 9 1 - 3 -9 -0 C- C+ C- -10 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 124 Seattle W 68 - 55 47% +2  9 - 9 2 - 3 +12 +3 F A+ C+ +10 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 218 @Portland L 76 - 82 45% +2  9 - 10 2 - 4 -6 +9 B- D B+ -15 B- D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 162 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 70 55% +1  10 - 10 3 - 4 +3 +4 F+ A- A- -1 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 123 Pacific L 64 - 81 46% -6  10 - 11 3 - 5 -18 -1 D+ C+ C+ -19 F+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 42 @St. Mary's L 51 - 81 7% -14  10 - 12 3 - 6 -15 -9 F F C -10 C D F
 Wed, Jan 28 162 @Loyola Marymount W 72 - 69 33% +0  11 - 12 4 - 6 +6 +8 A+ B F -2 C C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 208 @San Diego L 75 - 77 43%
 Wed, Feb 4 131 Washington St. L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 11 Gonzaga L 66 - 84 4%
 Thu, Feb 12 98 @San Francisco L 65 - 75 17%
 Sun, Feb 15 124 @Seattle L 63 - 70 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 281 Pepperdine W 74 - 66 78%
 Wed, Feb 25 208 San Diego W 78 - 74 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 50 @Santa Clara L 67 - 83 7%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 11 -2 +0 C C D+ -2 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.1 4.0 4.2 0.4 8.7 5th
6th 2.1 9.2 1.4 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.2 10.4 5.9 0.1 16.6 7th
8th 0.0 4.4 14.3 1.1 0.0 19.8 8th
9th 0.0 2.7 15.2 4.3 0.0 22.3 9th
10th 0.5 5.7 5.3 0.1 11.6 10th
11th 1.2 2.8 0.3 4.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.1 0.3 12th
Total 2.0 11.2 25.5 31.2 20.5 7.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.2
10-8 1.5% 1.5
9-9 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 7.9
8-10 20.5% 20.5
7-11 31.2% 31.2
6-12 25.5% 25.5
5-13 11.2% 11.2
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.0%