Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#134
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#120
Pace67.7#232
Improvement-1.8#295

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#168
First Shot-3.6#279
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#25
Layup/Dunks-1.8#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#150
Freethrows-4.8#361
Improvement-1.0#265

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#110
First Shot+0.8#142
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#105
Layups/Dunks-0.9#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#14
Freethrows-2.7#328
Improvement-0.7#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 19.1% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 97.6% 98.9% 94.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 97.2% 88.5%
Conference Champion 21.7% 26.3% 10.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.1% 19.1% 12.2%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Away) - 70.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 415 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 141 Arkansas St. W 90-65 63%     1 - 0 +23.2 +11.0 +10.9
  Tue, Nov 11 206 @Rice W 81-69 56%     2 - 0 +12.0 +10.9 +1.5
  Fri, Nov 14 223 Abilene Christian W 76-66 79%     3 - 0 +3.3 +5.3 -1.6
  Tue, Nov 18 181 @Fresno St. L 78-80 51%     3 - 1 -0.5 +8.8 -9.4
  Fri, Nov 21 294 @Pepperdine W 63-60 71%     4 - 1 -1.2 -6.6 +5.6
  Sat, Nov 29 179 @Texas Arlington L 61-66 50%     4 - 2 -3.3 -0.4 -3.6
  Wed, Dec 3 190 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-60 74%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +8.0 +0.3 +8.0
  Sun, Dec 7 356 Louisiana Monroe W 96-76 95%     6 - 2 +3.2 +11.0 -8.6
  Wed, Dec 17 218 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-60 78%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +2.4 +2.5 +0.8
  Mon, Dec 29 298 @East Texas A&M W 74-68 71%    
  Wed, Dec 31 273 @Northwestern St. W 73-68 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 272 @SE Louisiana W 71-66 67%    
  Mon, Jan 5 71 @McNeese St. L 66-75 19%    
  Sat, Jan 10 279 Houston Christian W 76-65 84%    
  Mon, Jan 12 173 Incarnate Word W 74-68 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 244 @New Orleans W 76-73 62%    
  Mon, Jan 19 236 @Nicholls St. W 72-69 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 242 @Lamar W 68-65 62%    
  Mon, Jan 26 273 Northwestern St. W 76-65 84%    
  Sat, Jan 31 272 SE Louisiana W 74-63 83%    
  Mon, Feb 2 71 McNeese St. L 69-72 38%    
  Sat, Feb 7 242 Lamar W 71-62 80%    
  Mon, Feb 9 298 East Texas A&M W 77-65 86%    
  Sat, Feb 14 190 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-72 52%    
  Mon, Feb 16 218 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-67 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 236 Nicholls St. W 75-66 79%    
  Mon, Feb 23 244 New Orleans W 79-70 81%    
  Sat, Feb 28 279 @Houston Christian W 73-68 67%    
  Mon, Mar 2 173 @Incarnate Word L 70-71 48%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 15 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.8 5.6 5.4 3.4 1.1 0.2 21.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.0 8.1 10.4 8.4 4.0 1.0 0.1 37.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.9 5.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.6 2.3 0.6 0.1 9.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 2.5 1.1 0.3 5.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.9 4.5 6.7 9.5 12.4 14.1 14.2 12.6 9.6 6.4 3.4 1.1 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
21-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1
20-2 98.3% 3.4    3.0 0.3
19-3 84.2% 5.4    4.0 1.3 0.0
18-4 57.9% 5.6    3.4 2.1 0.1
17-5 30.0% 3.8    1.6 1.9 0.3
16-6 13.0% 1.9    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-7 3.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 21.7% 21.7 14.1 6.7 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.2% 52.2% 52.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
21-1 1.1% 40.7% 40.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.7
20-2 3.4% 40.0% 40.0% 12.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.0
19-3 6.4% 33.8% 33.8% 12.7 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.2
18-4 9.6% 28.7% 28.7% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.0 6.9
17-5 12.6% 25.8% 25.8% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.1 0.1 9.3
16-6 14.2% 18.6% 18.6% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.6
15-7 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 12.1
14-8 12.4% 10.3% 10.3% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 11.1
13-9 9.5% 6.6% 6.6% 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.9
12-10 6.7% 4.1% 4.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.4
11-11 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.3
10-12 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.8
9-13 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 1.3
8-14 0.7% 0.7
7-15 0.3% 0.3
6-16 0.1% 0.1
5-17 0.0% 0.0
4-18 0.0% 0.0
3-19 0.0% 0.0
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.6 5.4 1.8 0.1 82.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.5 8.3 12.5 58.3 20.8