Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.7 #103
Expected Predictive Rating +7.7 #74
Pace 66.5 #240
Improvement +0.8 #145

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #151 C- C+ A- F D
Defense #67 B C C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #325 1.06 #296 -5.0 #339
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #62 0.80 #113 +3.0 #48
Three Pointers 40% #199 1.08 #91 +0.9 #143
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #208 -1.2 #208
Freethrows 0.22 #361 65% #352 0.14 #364
Second Chance 32.9% #113 1.01 #191 0.33 #128
Turnovers 13.3% #17
Total Offense +0.4 #151

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #89 1.04 #47 +0.4 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #136 0.79 #245 -0.8 #251
Three Pointers 36% #313 0.91 #49 +4.5 #28
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #57 +4.1 #57
Freethrows 0.30 #159 72% #181 0.21 #154
Second Chance 30.1% #158 1.06 #244 0.32 #200
Turnovers 16.6% #203
Total Defense +4.3 #67

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #320 0.3% #188
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.1% #172 -8.2% #46
Possession Length 17.7 #228 17.6 #240
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #361 0.15 #98
Improvement -1.4 #268 +2.3 #63

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.6% 39.5% 34.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 90.3% 93.6% 75.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round38.6% 39.5% 34.6%
Second Round4.1% 4.2% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 82.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 36 - 27 - 4
Quad 418 - 125 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 169 Arkansas St. W 90 - 65 79% +16  1 - 0 +21 +10 C A+ D- +10 A+ A- C-
 Tue, Nov 11 227 @Rice W 81 - 69 70% +8  2 - 0 +11 +9 B- C B +3 B A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 268 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 89% +1  3 - 0 +1 +4 C- D A+ -3 B B- F
 Tue, Nov 18 145 @Fresno St. L 78 - 80 53% +1  3 - 1 +2 +12 C+ A+ B -10 F D- C
 Fri, Nov 21 275 @Pepperdine W 63 - 60 78% -3  4 - 1 -1 -7 F+ A- B- +7 B- C B+
 Sat, Nov 29 165 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 66 58% +3  4 - 2 -2 +1 D+ C C+ -4 D+ B- C
 Wed, Dec 3 179 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 60 80% +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +9 +1 D- C A+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 355 Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 76 97% +11  6 - 2 +3 +11 A- D+ A+ -9 A- F F
 Wed, Dec 17 206 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 60 84% +1  7 - 2 2 - 0 +3 +3 C C A +1 C+ D C+
 Mon, Dec 29 308 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 48 83% +6  8 - 2 3 - 0 +21 +8 D B- A- +16 B- A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 283 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 64 79% +7  9 - 2 4 - 0 +6 +3 D+ F A- +3 B B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 279 @SE Louisiana W 73 - 63 79% +8  10 - 2 5 - 0 +6 +5 D C+ B- +2 C+ F+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 84 @McNeese St. L 64 - 66 33% +2  10 - 3 5 - 1 +7 +5 C- B C +2 C- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 303 Houston Christian W 85 - 67 92% +15  11 - 3 6 - 1 +7 +15 C- B A+ -6 D- C A-
 Mon, Jan 12 245 Incarnate Word W 56 - 46 88% +7  12 - 3 7 - 1 +2 -19 F C C+ +22 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 212 @New Orleans W 84 - 79 67% +1  13 - 3 8 - 1 +5 +11 B+ F+ A+ -6 D- D- D+
 Mon, Jan 19 248 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 62 74% +16  14 - 3 9 - 1 +15 +11 A- F B +5 A+ D D+
 Sat, Jan 24 195 @Lamar W 88 - 81 64% +4  15 - 3 10 - 1 +8 +21 A+ D- A+ -12 D F C
 Tue, Jan 27 283 Northwestern St. W 69 - 67 91% +8  16 - 3 11 - 1 -8 -11 F D A- +3 A+ D- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 279 SE Louisiana W 85 - 58 90% +21  17 - 3 12 - 1 +17 +24 A+ A+ A -2 C+ F B+
 Mon, Feb 2 84 McNeese St. W 67 - 60 55% +6  18 - 3 13 - 1 +10 -5 C- D+ A+ +15 A+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 195 Lamar W 73 - 63 82%
 Mon, Feb 9 308 East Texas A&M W 78 - 62 94%
 Sat, Feb 14 179 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 71 - 68 60%
 Mon, Feb 16 206 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 65 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 248 Nicholls St. W 77 - 64 88%
 Mon, Feb 23 212 New Orleans W 81 - 70 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 303 @Houston Christian W 74 - 64 83%
 Mon, Mar 2 245 @Incarnate Word W 74 - 67 73%
Totals 24 - 5 19 - 3 +5 +0 C- C+ A- +4 B C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 11.6 28.7 32.1 15.5 90.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 3.7 4.6 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.9 16.2 28.7 32.1 15.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 15.5    15.5
20-2 100.0% 32.1    32.1
19-3 100.0% 28.7    20.1 8.7
18-4 71.8% 11.6    5.6 6.0
17-5 38.3% 2.3    0.8 1.5
16-6 14.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-7 8.3% 0.0    0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total 90.3% 90.3 74.0 16.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 15.5% 44.8% 44.8% 11.8 1.8 4.7 0.4 0.0 8.5
20-2 32.1% 40.8% 40.8% 12.3 0.6 8.4 3.9 0.1 19.0
19-3 28.7% 36.9% 36.9% 12.5 0.2 5.0 5.0 0.4 18.1
18-4 16.2% 35.7% 35.7% 12.7 0.0 2.0 3.3 0.5 10.4
17-5 5.9% 30.4% 30.4% 12.9 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.1
16-6 1.4% 26.4% 26.4% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-7 0.2% 29.2% 29.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-8 0.0% 0.0
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 38.6% 38.6% 0.0% 12.4 61.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.9% 100.0% 11.8 25.3 68.1 6.4 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.8%