IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
The Citadel
Southern
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.5	#342
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.8	#316
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.9	#332

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.6	#338

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.5%	1.8%	0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.7	14.7	15.2

.500 or above	3.9%	16.8%	3.5%
.500 or above in Conference	7.7%	18.3%	7.3%
Conference Champion	0.3%	1.1%	0.3%
Last Place in Conference	51.9%	31.8%	52.6%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
First Round	0.4%	1.8%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 3.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 8	1 - 13
Quad 4	6 - 9	7 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2025	100	@ Boston College	L	58-78	3%
Nov 10, 2025	318	Charleston Southern	W	68-67	51%
Nov 14, 2025	345	@ West Georgia	L	67-70	40%
Nov 24, 2025	320	Bellarmine	W	70-69	53%
Nov 26, 2025	289	Houston Christian	L	64-65	45%
Nov 30, 2025	267	Presbyterian	L	62-68	31%
Dec 04, 2025	144	@ Davidson	L	59-74	9%
Dec 13, 2025	70	@ South Carolina	L	54-77	2%
Dec 17, 2025	123	@ College of Charleston	L	63-80	7%
Dec 20, 2025	137	@ Richmond	L	56-72	8%
Dec 31, 2025	152	East Tennessee St.	L	61-70	21%
Jan 03, 2026	206	Wofford	L	62-68	31%
Jan 07, 2026	248	@ Mercer	L	65-75	20%
Jan 10, 2026	273	Western Carolina	L	69-71	42%
Jan 15, 2026	225	@ UNC Greensboro	L	58-69	18%
Jan 17, 2026	296	@ VMI	L	65-72	28%
Jan 21, 2026	133	Furman	L	62-72	20%
Jan 24, 2026	152	@ East Tennessee St.	L	58-73	11%
Jan 29, 2026	296	VMI	L	68-69	46%
Jan 31, 2026	225	UNC Greensboro	L	61-66	34%
Feb 05, 2026	166	@ Samford	L	66-80	13%
Feb 07, 2026	125	@ Chattanooga	L	60-77	8%
Feb 11, 2026	273	@ Western Carolina	L	66-74	25%
Feb 14, 2026	248	Mercer	L	68-72	38%
Feb 19, 2026	166	Samford	L	69-77	26%
Feb 21, 2026	125	Chattanooga	L	63-74	19%
Feb 25, 2026	133	@ Furman	L	59-75	9%
Feb 28, 2026	206	@ Wofford	L	59-71	17%
Projected Record						7 - 21	4 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.3	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.6	2nd
3rd										0.1	0.3	0.6	0.3	0.0							1.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	0.6	1.0	0.4	0.1								2.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.1	1.1	1.5	0.6	0.1									3.5	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	2.0	2.3	0.9	0.1	0.0									5.8	6th
7th					0.1	1.1	3.1	3.5	1.1	0.1											9.0	7th
8th			0.0	0.4	2.3	5.0	4.5	1.5	0.1	0.0											13.8	8th
9th		0.2	2.2	5.4	7.6	5.1	1.5	0.1													22.2	9th
10th	4.9	10.3	11.7	9.0	4.3	0.9	0.1	0.0													41.1	10th

Total	4.9	10.5	13.9	14.8	14.2	12.1	9.7	7.4	4.8	3.2	2.1	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0				Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-3	85.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0
14-4	65.7%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	31.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	6.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	1.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.3%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%		50.0%	50.0%		12.0													0.0					0.0
16-2	0.0%		25.0%	25.0%		13.0														0.0				0.0
15-3	0.1%		28.6%	28.6%		13.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
14-4	0.2%		26.8%	26.8%		13.9														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
13-5	0.2%		11.6%	11.6%		14.4															0.0	0.0		0.2
12-6	0.7%		9.5%	9.5%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6
11-7	1.2%		5.8%	5.8%		14.7														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1
10-8	2.1%		2.4%	2.4%		19.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0
9-9	3.2%		2.0%	2.0%		15.7																0.0	0.0	3.2
8-10	4.8%		1.4%	1.4%		15.9																0.0	0.1	4.8
7-11	7.4%		0.7%	0.7%		17.3																0.0	0.0	7.3
6-12	9.7%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
5-13	12.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.1
4-14	14.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	14.2
3-15	14.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	14.8
2-16	13.9%																							13.9
1-17	10.5%																							10.5
0-18	4.9%																							4.9

Total	100%		0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	15.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	99.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.0%