The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.7 #345
Expected Predictive Rating -11.5 #336
Pace 62.5 #335
Improvement +6.4 #10

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #315 D+ D D+ D+ C
Defense #340 D- C D C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #305 1.03 #319 -4.8 #335
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #215 0.69 #288 -1.5 #257
Three Pointers 48% #48 0.98 #232 +2.6 #93
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #293 -3.7 #291
Freethrows 0.28 #248 68% #308 0.19 #277
Second Chance 27.7% #266 0.89 #332 0.25 #318
Turnovers 18.5% #296
Total Offense -5.6 #315

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #132 1.33 #349 -4.6 #328
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #349 0.80 #271 +2.1 #37
Three Pointers 46% #55 1.09 #281 -3.9 #327
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #346 -6.4 #346
Freethrows 0.29 #146 71% #111 0.20 #124
Second Chance 31.9% #238 1.02 #171 0.33 #216
Turnovers 13.8% #332
Total Defense -6.1 #340

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #202 2.0% #339
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.1% #303 10.3% #340
Possession Length 19.6 #355 16.7 #100
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #350 0.19 #261
Improvement -0.8 #223 +7.1 #2

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.9% 25.2% 5.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 16.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 46 - 117 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 127 @Boston College L 47 - 76 7% -11  0 - 1 -24 -16 F D- D- -9 C D+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 245 Charleston Southern L 86 - 96 35% -0  0 - 2 -18 +8 A+ F C+ -26 F F F
 Fri, Nov 14 325 @West Georgia L 92 - 100 33% -8  0 - 3 -15 +8 C+ F+ A -22 F F F
 Mon, Nov 24 303 Bellarmine L 58 - 70 48% -5  0 - 4 -23 -17 F C F -9 D C F
 Wed, Nov 26 297 Houston Christian L 65 - 72 47% -6  0 - 5 -18 -3 F C+ B- -16 F F C-
 Sun, Nov 30 263 Presbyterian L 41 - 69 29% -19  0 - 6 -34 -22 F D F -19 F F D
 Thu, Dec 4 116 @Davidson L 63 - 79 6% -9  0 - 7 -10 +0 B D F+ -12 C D+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 93 @South Carolina L 55 - 71 4% -5  0 - 8 -7 -10 F F+ B- +3 A- C- C-
 Wed, Dec 17 152 @College of Charleston L 78 - 82 9% +2  0 - 9 -1 +5 B- D+ F+ -5 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 134 @Richmond L 56 - 80 7% -11  0 - 10 -19 -11 C- F+ F -10 F B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 30 140 East Tennessee St. L 49 - 74 18% -13  0 - 11 0 - 1 -27 -20 F B- F -10 D+ D- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 188 Wofford L 86 - 95 26% -8  0 - 12 0 - 2 -14 +13 B+ A+ F+ -28 F B+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 148 @Mercer L 63 - 101 8% -21  0 - 13 0 - 3 -34 -6 C- B F -31 F F C
 Sat, Jan 10 262 Western Carolina W 79 - 77 OT 39% -2  1 - 13 1 - 3 -7 -1 F+ A- C- -6 C B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 313 @UNC Greensboro L 66 - 69 OT 29% +4  1 - 14 1 - 4 -9 -11 F+ F F+ +2 C- B D
 Sat, Jan 17 357 @VMI W 82 - 68 49% +10  2 - 14 2 - 4 +3 +5 B F D -2 F+ B+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 157 Furman W 77 - 75 OT 21% -6  3 - 14 3 - 4 -1 +3 D+ B- C -4 C A- F
 Fri, Jan 23 140 @East Tennessee St. L 55 - 84 8% -18  3 - 15 3 - 5 -25 -11 F+ F A- -16 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 357 VMI W 80 - 56 71% +12  4 - 15 4 - 5 +7 +6 A+ F B- +3 C A C+
 Sat, Jan 31 313 UNC Greensboro W 71 - 66 OT 51% +2  5 - 15 5 - 5 -7 -8 D+ F A- +1 C+ D+ B-
 Thu, Feb 5 240 @Samford L 67 - 77 17%
 Sat, Feb 7 277 @Chattanooga L 66 - 74 22%
 Wed, Feb 11 262 @Western Carolina L 70 - 79 20%
 Sat, Feb 14 148 Mercer L 71 - 80 19%
 Thu, Feb 19 240 Samford L 70 - 74 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 277 Chattanooga L 69 - 71 42%
 Wed, Feb 25 157 @Furman L 62 - 77 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 188 @Wofford L 66 - 79 12%
Totals 7 - 21 7 - 11 -12 -6 D+ D D+ -6 D- C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.3 3.9 4.2 1.0 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 6.0 9.5 2.0 0.1 17.6 6th
7th 0.0 4.0 14.0 3.3 0.1 21.4 7th
8th 3.0 16.1 7.3 0.2 26.6 8th
9th 12.6 10.1 0.7 0.0 23.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 15.7 30.3 28.3 16.9 6.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 8.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
9-9 6.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.6
8-10 16.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.9
7-11 28.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 28.2
6-12 30.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 30.2
5-13 15.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.7
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.7%