Preseason Rankings
Washington
Big Ten
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#48
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#153
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#70
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.2% 7.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 16.3% 16.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.5% 41.5% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.7% 40.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 n/a
.500 or above 63.8% 63.8% 33.6%
.500 or above in Conference 37.6% 37.6% 33.6%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 7.0% 0.0%
First Four5.5% 5.5% 0.0%
First Round38.7% 38.7% 0.0%
Second Round24.2% 24.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen9.1% 9.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight3.5% 3.5% 0.0%
Final Four1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 11
Quad 24 - 39 - 13
Quad 34 - 112 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 364   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 96-59 100.0%   
  Nov 06, 2025 321   Denver W 84-60 99%    
  Nov 09, 2025 23   @ Baylor L 67-74 26%    
  Nov 14, 2025 124   @ Washington St. W 80-74 71%    
  Nov 18, 2025 186   Southern W 80-64 93%    
  Nov 27, 2025 98   Nevada W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 03, 2025 14   UCLA L 68-71 39%    
  Dec 06, 2025 29   @ USC L 72-78 30%    
  Dec 13, 2025 268   Southern Utah W 84-64 96%    
  Dec 19, 2025 121   @ Seattle W 72-66 70%    
  Dec 22, 2025 183   San Diego W 86-70 91%    
  Dec 29, 2025 88   Utah W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 04, 2026 34   @ Indiana L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 07, 2026 2   @ Purdue L 65-80 10%    
  Jan 11, 2026 27   Ohio St. L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 14, 2026 6   Michigan L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 17, 2026 21   Michigan St. L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 21, 2026 60   @ Nebraska L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 25, 2026 28   Oregon L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 29, 2026 15   @ Illinois L 75-84 22%    
  Jan 31, 2026 71   @ Northwestern W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 04, 2026 32   Iowa W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 07, 2026 14   @ UCLA L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 11, 2026 90   Penn St. W 80-71 76%    
  Feb 14, 2026 87   Minnesota W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 21, 2026 40   @ Maryland L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 24, 2026 81   @ Rutgers W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 28, 2026 26   Wisconsin L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 04, 2026 29   USC W 75-74 50%    
  Mar 07, 2026 28   @ Oregon L 71-77 31%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.8 1.6 0.2 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.8 2.1 0.2 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.3 2.3 3.9 1.2 0.1 7.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.1 13th
14th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.1 7.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.6 0.9 0.1 6.9 16th
17th 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.7 17th
18th 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 3.7 18th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.9 5.9 7.7 9.4 10.3 11.0 11.1 9.5 8.5 6.9 5.0 3.4 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 89.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 81.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-3 55.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 26.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 8.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 1.2% 98.8% 1.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 44.9% 55.1% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.6% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.1% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 2.9 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.2% 99.8% 10.1% 89.7% 3.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 3.4% 99.8% 7.4% 92.3% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 5.0% 99.3% 4.1% 95.2% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
12-8 6.9% 97.5% 2.1% 95.4% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 97.5%
11-9 8.5% 90.6% 1.5% 89.2% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 90.5%
10-10 9.5% 76.8% 0.8% 76.0% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.0 2.2 76.6%
9-11 11.1% 45.8% 0.3% 45.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 1.4 0.1 6.0 45.6%
8-12 11.0% 16.2% 0.1% 16.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.2 16.2%
7-13 10.3% 2.7% 2.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.0 2.7%
6-14 9.4% 0.1% 0.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.1%
5-15 7.7% 7.7
4-16 5.9% 5.9
3-17 3.9% 3.9
2-18 2.1% 2.1
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 41.5% 1.5% 40.1% 7.1 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.2 4.2 4.9 5.8 5.7 4.9 5.4 3.4 0.1 0.0 58.5 40.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0