Washington
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.2 #41
Expected Predictive Rating +10.5 #55
Pace 68.7 #180
Improvement +3.9 #34

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #52 B- B+ B- C+ D
Defense #43 B+ B C- B A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #236 1.26 #76 +0.5 #156
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #47 0.88 #39 +4.6 #15
Three Pointers 36% #296 1.05 #115 -2.0 #253
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #84 +3.1 #84
Freethrows 0.30 #192 78% #21 0.23 #129
Second Chance 36.0% #40 1.11 #73 0.40 #40
Turnovers 14.8% #71
Total Offense +6.6 #52

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #327 1.09 #89 +4.9 #42
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #19 0.70 #88 -2.1 #326
Three Pointers 40% #218 0.87 #23 +3.4 #50
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #28 +6.2 #28
Freethrows 0.26 #52 69% #54 0.18 #40
Second Chance 27.1% #61 0.94 #64 0.25 #46
Turnovers 16.1% #218
Total Defense +5.7 #43

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #313 -2.8% #19
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.5% #59 -9.7% #37
Possession Length 16.7 #116 18.3 #317
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #95 0.09 #9
Improvement +2.4 #62 +1.5 #96

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.1% 49.7% 23.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.9% 49.5% 23.5%
Average Seed 9.9 9.6 10.3
.500 or above 92.1% 97.7% 87.7%
.500 or above in Conference 53.9% 72.4% 39.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.5% 15.2% 12.3%
First Round29.2% 43.2% 18.1%
Second Round12.9% 19.9% 7.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 4.2% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Home) - 44.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 23 - 9
Quad 25 - 48 - 13
Quad 35 - 113 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94 - 50 98% +21  1 - 0 +30 +10 B- A D- +18 A+ A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 6 288 Denver W 84 - 70 97% +8  2 - 0 +4 +0 C- B- C +4 C- A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 9 47 @Baylor L 69 - 78 41% -4  2 - 1 +6 +0 C- D+ C- +6 C+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 14 122 @Washington St. W 81 - 69 74% +10  3 - 1 +18 +19 B+ B A- +0 A D+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 266 Southern W 99 - 93 2OT 96% -3  4 - 1 -3 -1 F B+ B- -4 C+ F B-
 Thu, Nov 27 71 Nevada W 83 - 66 66% +7  5 - 1 +25 +11 A C D +13 A+ B+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 72 Colorado L 68 - 81 66% -9  5 - 2 -5 -2 F B A+ -3 B- D+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 35 UCLA L 80 - 82 55% -3  5 - 3 0 - 1 +9 +18 A+ A+ F+ -10 F+ F+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 48 @USC W 84 - 76 42% -8  6 - 3 1 - 1 +22 +16 C+ A+ C+ +6 A+ A- F
 Sat, Dec 13 284 Southern Utah W 105 - 69 97% +18  7 - 3 +26 +26 A+ B+ A+ -0 D A+ F+
 Fri, Dec 19 124 @Seattle L 66 - 70 75% +2  7 - 4 +1 -4 D F C +5 B+ A C+
 Mon, Dec 22 202 San Diego W 86 - 56 94% +16  8 - 4 +24 +5 D- A+ A- +18 A A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 104 Utah W 74 - 65 84% +3  9 - 4 +10 +1 C+ D C+ +10 A+ D- B
 Sun, Jan 4 30 @Indiana L 80 - 90 30% -7  9 - 5 1 - 2 +8 +22 B+ A+ A+ -15 D+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 7 8 @Purdue L 73 - 81 14% -14  9 - 6 1 - 3 +16 +8 B C+ C- +8 C+ F+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 36 Ohio St. W 81 - 74 56% +0  10 - 6 2 - 3 +18 +18 A- B A+ +1 A B- B-
 Wed, Jan 14 1 Michigan L 72 - 82 18% -8  10 - 7 2 - 4 +12 +10 C+ A+ B- +2 A+ D D-
 Sat, Jan 17 10 Michigan St. L 63 - 80 32% -8  10 - 8 2 - 5 +0 +4 A- B C -5 B- B F
 Wed, Jan 21 13 @Nebraska L 66 - 76 19% -10  10 - 9 2 - 6 +11 +10 B B+ A+ +0 C A+ C-
 Sun, Jan 25 82 Oregon W 72 - 57 79% +12  11 - 9 3 - 6 +19 +7 A- C- C- +13 A+ A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 7 @Illinois L 66 - 75 13% -5  11 - 10 3 - 7 +15 +11 A+ D- D- +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 63 @Northwestern W 76 - 62 51% +8  12 - 10 4 - 7 +26 +13 A- A- C +14 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 21 Iowa L 70 - 72 44%
 Sat, Feb 7 35 @UCLA L 70 - 75 33%
 Wed, Feb 11 112 Penn St. W 84 - 72 87%
 Sat, Feb 14 76 Minnesota W 73 - 65 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 107 @Maryland W 77 - 72 69%
 Tue, Feb 24 114 @Rutgers W 76 - 70 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 37 Wisconsin W 80 - 78 56%
 Wed, Mar 4 48 USC W 78 - 74 63%
 Sat, Mar 7 82 @Oregon W 75 - 72 59%
Totals 18 - 13 10 - 10 +12 +7 B- B+ B- +6 B+ B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.3 0.7 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.2 0.8 4.8 6th
7th 0.2 4.2 3.6 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 2.4 7.0 1.2 10.7 8th
9th 0.8 8.4 5.1 0.1 14.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 7.0 10.4 1.1 18.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 5.7 11.1 3.8 0.1 21.3 11th
12th 0.4 4.1 7.9 3.6 0.2 16.2 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 3.8 13th
14th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.8 6.6 14.8 22.6 25.6 18.3 8.4 1.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.7% 91.8% 0.6% 91.2% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 91.8%
12-8 8.4% 82.7% 0.8% 81.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.4 1.8 0.6 1.5 82.6%
11-9 18.3% 65.2% 0.4% 64.8% 9.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.5 3.5 0.0 6.4 65.0%
10-10 25.6% 41.6% 0.4% 41.3% 10.4 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.6 6.3 0.2 14.9 41.4%
9-11 22.6% 16.0% 0.1% 15.9% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.6 0.3 19.0 15.9%
8-12 14.8% 3.1% 0.1% 3.0% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 14.4 3.0%
7-13 6.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 6.6 0.3%
6-14 1.8% 1.8
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 35.1% 0.3% 34.8% 9.9 64.9 34.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 5.8 16.0 28.0 28.0 20.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 6.6 4.9 43.9 34.1 17.1