American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
76 Memphis 25.1%   11   4 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 13 13 - 5 +7.6      +3.0 102 +4.6 57 72.7 95 +5.5 99 0.0 1
83 Tulsa 22.6%   8 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +7.1      +6.7 51 +0.4 153 67.7 232 +12.9 41 0.0 1
86 South Florida 18.5%   6 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 6 +6.5      +3.7 86 +2.8 85 77.7 24 +6.2 93 0.0 1
98 Wichita St. 12.5%   5 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +5.0      +2.1 118 +2.9 83 65.0 297 +0.8 159 0.0 1
110 UAB 8.8%   6 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +3.8      +1.7 124 +2.0 106 72.8 92 +4.8 106 0.0 1
118 Florida Atlantic 7.8%   6 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 +3.2      +3.7 89 -0.4 177 70.9 149 +4.7 108 0.0 1
146 North Texas 3.4%   6 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +0.8      -2.4 234 +3.2 78 61.9 354 +1.7 146 0.0 1
163 Temple 2.6%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 9 -0.2      +3.7 85 -4.0 307 67.5 236 -2.5 206 0.0 1
195 Charlotte 1.0%   3 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 11 -2.3      0.0 168 -2.3 252 60.7 358 -4.9 243 0.0 1
207 Tulane 0.6%   6 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 17 6 - 12 -3.0      +0.8 144 -3.8 301 67.0 249 +0.1 169 0.0 1
210 Rice 0.7%   4 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -3.1      -1.3 201 -1.8 232 64.5 306 -4.4 237 0.0 1
286 Texas San Antonio 0.1%   2 - 6 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -6.9      -5.6 321 -1.3 212 73.1 80 -8.1 291 0.0 1
287 East Carolina 0.1%   2 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 22 5 - 13 -6.9      -5.3 313 -1.6 224 71.3 136 -12.2 327 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 172 College of Charleston 75 86 South Florida 81   
Wed, Dec 10 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff 84 83 Tulsa 117   
Thu, Dec 11 259 Appalachian St. 67 287 East Carolina 54   
Sat, Dec 13 114 DePaul 61 98 Wichita St. 58   
Sat, Dec 13 10 Louisville 99 76 Memphis 73   
Sat, Dec 13 132 New Mexico St. 70 83 Tulsa 83   
Sat, Dec 13 153 Arkansas St. 76 210 Rice 77   
Sat, Dec 13 207 Tulane 67 89 UC San Diego 93   
Sat, Dec 13 62 Colorado 88 286 Texas San Antonio 64   
Sat, Dec 13 118 Florida Atlantic 105 329 Albany 79   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 14 147 Troy 71 110 UAB 77 72%   
Sun, Dec 14 146 North Texas 63 176 South Alabama 65 54%   
Sun, Dec 14 195 Charlotte 67 172 College of Charleston 71 66%   
Sun, Dec 14 209 Buffalo 75 287 East Carolina 74 53%   
Sun, Dec 14 163 Temple 85 363 St. Francis (PA) 67 94%   
Wed, Dec 17 76 Memphis 76 11 Vanderbilt 84 77%   
Wed, Dec 17 15 Alabama 97 86 South Florida 83 90%   
Wed, Dec 17 146 North Texas 66 73 Santa Clara 73 75%   
Wed, Dec 17 179 Louisiana Tech 67 207 Tulane 69 55%   
Wed, Dec 17 287 East Carolina 67 260 Presbyterian 65 56%   
Wed, Dec 17 98 Wichita St. 77 244 Wofford 64 88%   
Wed, Dec 17 319 Cleveland St. 72 110 UAB 88 92%   
Wed, Dec 17 34 USC 90 286 Texas San Antonio 67 97%   
Thu, Dec 18 128 Davidson 77 163 Temple 72 70%   
Thu, Dec 18 195 Charlotte 73 320 Lafayette 63 83%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 3.0 31.8 21.3 14.4 10.9 7.5 5.4 3.7 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 3.1 31.5 21.0 14.3 10.6 7.4 5.6 3.7 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
South Florida 3.8 20.9 17.1 15.6 12.8 10.3 7.9 6.0 4.4 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
Wichita St. 4.3 15.1 15.1 14.6 13.2 11.6 9.2 7.6 5.7 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.2
UAB 5.0 10.7 12.0 12.7 12.9 12.2 10.7 9.1 7.3 5.5 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.4
Florida Atlantic 5.3 8.9 10.7 11.9 12.3 12.0 11.1 9.9 8.4 6.4 4.1 2.6 1.3 0.5
North Texas 6.7 3.6 5.3 7.3 8.6 10.6 11.5 11.6 11.9 10.1 8.3 5.9 3.6 1.6
Temple 6.5 3.6 6.1 8.6 10.1 11.3 11.7 11.6 10.7 9.1 7.2 5.1 3.5 1.5
Charlotte 8.2 1.0 2.1 3.2 5.2 7.0 8.9 10.5 12.1 13.2 12.7 11.0 8.2 4.8
Tulane 9.6 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.3 3.7 5.1 6.8 9.0 11.1 14.6 16.9 16.2 11.4
Rice 8.8 0.6 1.5 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.4 9.2 11.2 13.1 14.5 13.2 10.6 6.8
Texas San Antonio 10.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.5 6.3 8.9 12.4 16.7 20.5 24.3
East Carolina 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.5 5.5 8.2 12.3 17.0 21.5 26.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 3.0 5.4 8.6 12.1 14.8 16.2 14.9 11.8 7.1 3.3 0.7
Tulsa 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.5 8.9 11.7 14.5 15.8 15.1 11.4 7.2 3.0 0.7
South Florida 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.4 8.5 11.7 14.7 15.2 14.4 11.5 7.5 3.9 1.5 0.3
Wichita St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.3 7.4 10.7 13.0 15.4 14.8 12.6 9.5 5.3 2.4 0.8 0.1
UAB 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.3 9.6 12.1 14.4 15.1 13.1 10.1 6.7 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.3 4.3 7.3 10.9 13.1 14.5 13.9 12.5 9.1 5.8 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.0
North Texas 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.5 8.6 12.1 14.0 14.7 13.4 10.7 7.7 4.6 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Temple 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.6 7.7 10.7 13.1 14.6 14.2 11.9 8.9 5.4 3.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.7 6.8 10.4 13.2 15.0 14.7 12.6 9.5 6.1 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulane 6 - 12 0.4 1.8 5.0 8.9 12.3 15.0 15.2 13.0 10.6 7.8 4.8 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rice 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.3 5.4 8.6 12.3 14.8 15.0 13.3 10.9 7.5 4.8 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 1.2 4.4 9.2 13.9 16.3 15.6 13.9 10.4 6.8 4.5 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 5 - 13 1.3 4.9 10.3 14.8 16.9 16.3 13.2 9.6 6.0 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 31.8% 20.9 8.1 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 31.5% 20.3 8.4 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
South Florida 20.9% 12.9 5.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Wichita St. 15.1% 8.4 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
UAB 10.7% 5.9 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida Atlantic 8.9% 4.8 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Texas 3.6% 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Temple 3.6% 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 1.0% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulane 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 25.1% 23.5% 1.6% 11   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.8 11.1 9.0 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 74.9 2.1%
Tulsa 22.6% 21.0% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 9.9 9.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 77.4 2.0%
South Florida 18.5% 18.0% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 6.8 8.9 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 81.5 0.7%
Wichita St. 12.5% 12.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 6.6 2.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 87.5 0.1%
UAB 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 4.5 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 91.2 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 4.1 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 92.2 0.0%
North Texas 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 96.6 0.0%
Temple 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 97.4 0.0%
Charlotte 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.4 0.0%
Rice 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.3 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 25.1% 1.1% 24.6% 6.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 22.6% 1.3% 21.9% 5.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 18.5% 0.4% 18.3% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 12.5% 0.1% 12.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 8.8% 0.0% 8.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 3.4% 0.0% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 2.6% 0.1% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.1 3.9 0.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 97.4 2.4
2nd Round 21.1% 0.2 78.9 20.9 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0