American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
69 South Florida 26.5%   11   12 - 7 5 - 2 +8.1      +4.7 71 +3.4 83 77.7 17 +6.9 79 +8.2 2
73 Tulsa 24.8%   15 - 3 5 - 2 +7.7      +8.3 31 -0.6 188 68.8 180 +9.6 62 +7.0 3
100 Wichita St. 11.6%   12 - 8 5 - 3 +5.2      +2.7 103 +2.5 106 65.1 282 +3.1 120 +5.2 4
102 Florida Atlantic 12.9%   12 - 7 6 - 2 +5.1      +2.4 111 +2.7 100 74.0 56 +5.6 90 +8.7 1
103 Memphis 11.3%   9 - 10 4 - 3 +5.0      -1.4 206 +6.4 40 73.0 73 +3.7 106 +3.8 6
118 UAB 5.0%   11 - 8 3 - 4 +2.9      +1.5 129 +1.4 122 72.8 77 +2.3 126 +1.8 8
140 North Texas 3.0%   10 - 8 3 - 4 +1.3      -4.4 288 +5.6 46 62.6 335 +1.1 146 -0.4 9
143 Temple 3.5%   12 - 7 5 - 2 +1.1      +1.4 134 -0.2 174 65.6 271 +1.9 135 +3.8 5
172 Charlotte 1.4%   10 - 9 5 - 2 -0.9      +1.6 125 -2.5 253 62.3 341 -0.4 168 +3.7 7
174 Tulane 0.8%   11 - 8 3 - 4 -1.1      -0.6 182 -0.5 180 67.0 231 +0.1 158 -1.8 10
238 Rice 0.2%   6 - 12 2 - 5 -4.4      -1.0 190 -3.4 281 64.5 297 -5.6 245 -4.7 11
253 East Carolina 0.1%   5 - 14 1 - 6 -5.1      -5.4 312 +0.3 159 70.8 128 -8.0 292 -8.3 12
343 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   2 - 16 0 - 8 -11.8      -6.9 336 -4.8 310 72.3 85 -12.9 342 -16.7 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 143 Temple 70 343 Texas San Antonio 64   
Sat, Jan 24 103 Memphis 59 100 Wichita St. 74   
Sat, Jan 24 238 Rice 81 73 Tulsa 87   
Sun, Jan 25 102 Florida Atlantic 75 69 South Florida 89   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 172 Charlotte 69 143 Temple 74 69%   
Wed, Jan 28 140 North Texas 65 73 Tulsa 75 81%   
Wed, Jan 28 253 East Carolina 72 238 Rice 70 59%   
Wed, Jan 28 69 South Florida 81 174 Tulane 75 73%   
Wed, Jan 28 118 UAB 83 343 Texas San Antonio 71 86%   
Thu, Jan 29 102 Florida Atlantic 73 103 Memphis 76 61%   
Sat, Jan 31 140 North Texas 68 118 UAB 67 55%   
Sat, Jan 31 69 South Florida 80 143 Temple 76 65%   
Sat, Jan 31 172 Charlotte 74 238 Rice 68 73%   
Sun, Feb 1 73 Tulsa 79 100 Wichita St. 74 70%   
Sun, Feb 1 103 Memphis 76 174 Tulane 67 81%   
Sun, Feb 1 253 East Carolina 68 102 Florida Atlantic 81 89%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
South Florida 2.4 40.0 23.1 14.7 9.5 6.0 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 2.4 41.3 23.9 14.7 8.6 5.4 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wichita St. 4.1 11.8 14.5 16.5 16.2 14.2 11.5 8.0 4.6 2.1 0.6 0.1
Florida Atlantic 2.8 29.7 23.7 18.2 11.6 7.9 4.6 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Memphis 4.9 7.5 11.5 13.8 14.6 14.0 12.3 10.2 8.1 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.1
UAB 6.4 1.2 3.6 6.8 10.2 12.7 14.2 15.9 15.0 12.3 5.7 2.0 0.4
North Texas 7.2 0.6 2.1 4.1 6.8 9.5 11.7 15.0 16.4 17.9 10.2 4.6 1.0 0.0
Temple 5.1 6.1 9.6 12.1 13.8 15.0 14.0 11.8 8.9 5.5 2.5 0.7 0.1
Charlotte 6.3 1.5 3.5 6.4 9.9 13.0 15.1 17.3 16.9 11.6 3.7 1.0 0.1
Tulane 9.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.5 5.8 9.6 17.1 29.9 22.6 7.6 0.0
Rice 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.7 11.8 23.9 29.0 23.4 0.7
East Carolina 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 5.9 16.3 28.5 42.1 3.4
Texas San Antonio 12.9 0.0 0.1 1.2 9.2 89.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
South Florida 13 - 5 20 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.8 13.1 20.4 24.6 20.1 10.6 2.7
Tulsa 13 - 5 23 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.3 11.8 20.2 25.0 21.7 11.0 2.5
Wichita St. 11 - 7 18 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.1 10.1 18.2 23.6 22.0 14.1 5.6 1.0
Florida Atlantic 12 - 6 18 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.8 8.3 16.5 23.7 23.8 16.0 6.9 1.3
Memphis 11 - 7 16 - 15 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 7.9 13.8 19.5 21.7 17.9 10.3 4.0 0.6
UAB 9 - 9 17 - 13 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 8.3 15.9 22.4 22.1 16.1 8.3 2.6 0.4
North Texas 9 - 9 16 - 13 0.1 0.6 2.3 7.0 13.7 19.7 22.1 17.4 11.3 4.6 1.2 0.1
Temple 10 - 8 17 - 13 0.1 0.8 3.6 8.7 16.4 21.3 21.1 15.7 8.4 3.1 0.7 0.1
Charlotte 10 - 8 15 - 15 0.1 1.6 6.9 16.5 24.1 23.9 16.2 7.6 2.4 0.5 0.1
Tulane 7 - 11 15 - 15 1.6 6.9 15.0 21.7 22.6 16.6 9.6 4.3 1.4 0.3 0.1
Rice 6 - 12 10 - 19 0.8 5.3 13.8 22.2 23.2 18.0 10.1 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 5 - 13 9 - 21 0.7 4.6 13.0 21.3 24.2 19.1 11.0 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 1 - 17 3 - 25 25.1 35.2 24.6 10.8 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Florida 40.0% 22.4 12.2 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
Tulsa 41.3% 23.2 12.5 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
Wichita St. 11.8% 4.3 4.2 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Florida Atlantic 29.7% 14.9 9.7 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Memphis 7.5% 2.2 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
UAB 1.2% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Texas 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Temple 6.1% 2.1 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
Charlotte 1.5% 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Tulane 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rice
East Carolina
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Florida 26.5% 25.9% 0.6% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 13.5 11.6 0.5 73.5 0.8%
Tulsa 24.8% 24.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.6 13.0 0.7 0.0 75.2 0.6%
Wichita St. 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.8 7.8 1.8 0.1 0.0 88.4 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0 2.0 8.3 2.5 0.2 0.0 87.1 0.0%
Memphis 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.9 2.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 88.7 0.0%
UAB 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.3 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 95.0 0.0%
North Texas 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 97.0 0.0%
Temple 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 96.5 0.0%
Charlotte 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 98.6 0.0%
Tulane 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.2 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.9 1.1
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 99.4 0.5
2nd Round 15.9% 0.2 84.1 15.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Florida 26.5% 0.6% 26.1% 5.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 24.8% 0.5% 24.5% 5.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 11.6% 0.0% 11.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 12.9% 0.0% 12.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 11.3% 0.0% 11.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%