Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.1 #174
Expected Predictive Rating +0.1 #158
Pace 67.0 #231
Improvement +2.8 #65

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #182 D+ D+ B A- C-
Defense #180 C- D+ C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #283 1.19 #138 -1.5 #240
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #161 0.70 #268 -0.3 #186
Three Pointers 44% #135 0.89 #329 -1.5 #233
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #278 -3.3 #278
Freethrows 0.36 #22 77% #24 0.28 #12
Second Chance 21.3% #357 1.22 #21 0.26 #299
Turnovers 13.9% #41
Total Offense -0.6 #182

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #238 1.11 #111 +2.0 #113
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.80 #246 -0.2 #199
Three Pointers 43% #111 1.14 #328 -3.7 #322
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #247 -2.0 #246
Freethrows 0.31 #215 70% #57 0.22 #185
Second Chance 34.0% #310 1.06 #208 0.36 #281
Turnovers 17.8% #87
Total Defense -0.5 #180

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #236 -0.1% #150
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.7% #276 4.0% #258
Possession Length 16.9 #130 18.4 #326
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #242 0.16 #153
Improvement -2.6 #316 +5.3 #2

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 41.8% 62.9% 33.6%
.500 or above in Conference 15.7% 31.0% 9.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Home) - 28.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 35 - 76 - 15
Quad 49 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 239 Samford W 85 - 72 73% +6  1 - 0 +6 +13 A+ F C -6 C- F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 275 Texas St. W 79 - 71 79% -6  2 - 0 -1 +7 C F B- -8 C- F D
 Tue, Nov 11 314 @Louisiana W 66 - 62 69% +3  3 - 0 -2 -1 F C C+ -1 C+ F F+
 Fri, Nov 14 219 New Orleans L 63 - 85 70% -11  3 - 1 -28 -12 F F A+ -18 F F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 40 Utah St. L 75 - 96 10% -6  3 - 2 -8 +8 A- D A- -17 F C+ C-
 Sun, Nov 23 130 Boston College W 93 - 90 OT 39% +1  4 - 2 +5 +15 B A+ A+ -10 C- D+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 260 Nicholls St. W 82 - 72 75% +7  5 - 2 +2 +6 B- F A- -5 F B+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 285 Grambling St. W 65 - 63 81% +0  6 - 2 -8 -2 F D A+ -6 C F B
 Sat, Dec 6 62 Akron L 71 - 88 25% -8  6 - 3 -11 -3 F D A+ -8 C- D+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 114 UC San Diego L 67 - 93 33% -16  6 - 4 -23 -11 F+ F D- -9 D C C+
 Wed, Dec 17 221 Louisiana Tech W 61 - 53 70% +6  7 - 4 +1 -0 F C A+ +3 A B A
 Sat, Dec 20 149 Portland St. W 63 - 61 55% +3  8 - 4 -0 -3 F D+ F +3 A D- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 253 @East Carolina W 79 - 70 54% +1  9 - 4 1 - 0 +7 +13 B- A- D -5 D+ B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 102 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 66 38% -1  10 - 4 2 - 0 +5 -2 D C+ B- +7 A C- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 343 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 52 77% +19  11 - 4 3 - 0 +24 +11 B- C C+ +14 B+ B- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 118 UAB L 69 - 82 46% -4  11 - 5 3 - 1 -13 -4 F+ B B -9 C F B
 Sun, Jan 18 140 North Texas L 63 - 71 52% -6  11 - 6 3 - 2 -10 -3 F+ D- A+ -7 D+ B A-
 Wed, Jan 21 102 @Florida Atlantic L 74 - 79 19% -6  11 - 7 3 - 3 +3 +4 D B+ C -1 D A D+
 Fri, Jan 23 172 @Charlotte L 70 - 73 38% -5  11 - 8 3 - 4 -1 -2 D+ F B- +1 F D A+
 Wed, Jan 28 69 South Florida L 75 - 81 28%
 Sun, Feb 1 103 @Memphis L 67 - 76 20%
 Sun, Feb 8 100 Wichita St. L 70 - 73 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 143 Temple W 73 - 72 53%
 Sun, Feb 15 118 @UAB L 72 - 79 25%
 Wed, Feb 18 140 @North Texas L 63 - 68 30%
 Sun, Feb 22 238 Rice W 75 - 69 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 73 Tulsa L 74 - 80 29%
 Sun, Mar 1 69 @South Florida L 72 - 84 13%
 Thu, Mar 5 143 @Temple L 70 - 75 32%
 Sun, Mar 8 103 Memphis L 70 - 73 39%
Totals 15 - 15 7 - 11 -1 -1 D+ D+ B +0 C- D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 1.7 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.0 0.6 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.6 3.0 0.1 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 7.7 7.5 0.6 17.1 9th
10th 0.2 3.4 12.0 12.1 2.2 0.0 29.9 10th
11th 0.3 3.4 9.0 8.0 1.9 0.0 22.6 11th
12th 1.2 3.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 1.6 6.9 15.0 21.7 22.6 16.6 9.6 4.3 1.4 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 30.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 9.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 6.2% 6.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.4% 4.2% 4.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 4.3% 2.9% 2.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2
9-9 9.6% 1.3% 1.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.5
8-10 16.6% 0.9% 0.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 16.4
7-11 22.6% 0.7% 0.7% 14.6 0.1 0.1 22.4
6-12 21.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 21.6
5-13 15.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 14.9
4-14 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 13.9 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%