Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.2 #100
Expected Predictive Rating +3.1 #120
Pace 65.1 #282
Improvement -2.0 #281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #103 C- A- B C C
Defense #106 B- B- C- B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #89 1.10 #254 +0.7 #151
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #169 0.70 #273 -0.5 #204
Three Pointers 37% #260 1.03 #172 -1.7 #240
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #224 -1.5 #225
Freethrows 0.31 #167 70% #270 0.21 #197
Second Chance 41.2% #4 1.07 #143 0.44 #20
Turnovers 14.5% #69
Total Offense +2.7 #103

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #243 1.12 #123 +2.0 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #24 0.76 #179 -2.8 #345
Three Pointers 36% #315 0.93 #76 +4.2 #35
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #73 +3.4 #73
Freethrows 0.27 #86 70% #68 0.19 #77
Second Chance 28.0% #89 0.99 #99 0.28 #80
Turnovers 15.6% #225
Total Defense +2.5 #106

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #161 -2.2% #31
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.4% #234 -4.5% #97
Possession Length 17.7 #206 18.2 #302
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #306 0.13 #54
Improvement -0.7 #216 -1.4 #264

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 14.7% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 97.3% 99.6% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 98.9% 92.8%
Conference Champion 11.8% 25.6% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.6% 14.7% 10.2%
Second Round1.4% 2.1% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 30.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 36 - 510 - 11
Quad 410 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 203 UNC Asheville W 75 - 58 85% +4  1 - 0 +11 +2 F A+ F +9 A+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 345 Prairie View W 105 - 62 96% +18  2 - 0 +28 +16 B B+ A +8 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 281 Loyola Chicago W 95 - 74 91% +14  3 - 0 +11 +23 C A+ A+ -11 F A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 59 @Boise St. L 59 - 62 24% -4  3 - 1 +9 -1 F+ A- D+ +11 A+ C+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 244 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75 - 58 88% +1  4 - 1 +9 +1 D+ D+ A- +9 A- B- B-
 Wed, Nov 26 42 St. Mary's L 65 - 70 26% -3  4 - 2 +7 -0 C- C F+ +7 A+ B+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 97 Colorado St. L 70 - 76 49% -10  4 - 3 -1 +10 F A+ B- -12 F A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 166 Western Kentucky L 70 - 75 71% -1  4 - 4 -6 +5 D+ B A- -11 D B D-
 Sat, Dec 6 108 @Northern Iowa W 74 - 69 OT 43% +2  5 - 4 +12 +9 A B+ D +3 C+ A- D
 Sat, Dec 13 92 DePaul L 58 - 61 59% -1  5 - 5 -0 -5 D+ C B- +4 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 211 Wofford W 84 - 73 85% +7  6 - 5 +5 +11 B- B- A- -5 C+ D- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 258 Eastern Kentucky W 88 - 57 89% +22  7 - 5 +23 +12 C A+ A +12 A A+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 118 @UAB W 75 - 70 47% -6  8 - 5 1 - 0 +11 +11 C+ A+ C +0 B- C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 172 @Charlotte L 100 - 104 2OT 62% +10  8 - 6 1 - 1 -2 +20 B A+ C -21 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 238 Rice L 64 - 66 88% -2  8 - 7 1 - 2 -9 -8 F F+ A -1 C- A D
 Sun, Jan 11 140 North Texas W 78 - 67 75% +8  9 - 7 2 - 2 +9 +8 A+ C+ F+ +1 A- C- C-
 Thu, Jan 15 102 @Florida Atlantic L 67 - 85 39% -15  9 - 8 2 - 3 -10 -2 F+ B- C -8 F A+ C
 Sun, Jan 18 69 @South Florida W 86 - 85 OT 28% +1  10 - 8 3 - 3 +12 +11 B- C+ A +1 C+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 253 East Carolina W 77 - 60 89% +14  11 - 8 4 - 3 +9 +9 F A+ A +1 A- A F
 Sat, Jan 24 103 Memphis W 74 - 59 62% +13  12 - 8 5 - 3 +17 +4 B C+ B +13 A+ B- A-
 Sun, Feb 1 73 @Tulsa L 73 - 79 30%
 Wed, Feb 4 172 Charlotte W 75 - 66 80%
 Sun, Feb 8 174 @Tulane W 73 - 70 62%
 Wed, Feb 11 69 South Florida W 78 - 77 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 73 Tulsa W 77 - 76 51%
 Wed, Feb 18 253 @East Carolina W 74 - 67 76%
 Sat, Feb 21 143 Temple W 75 - 68 74%
 Thu, Feb 26 103 @Memphis L 69 - 72 40%
 Sun, Mar 1 343 @Texas San Antonio W 80 - 66 90%
 Sat, Mar 7 102 Florida Atlantic W 76 - 73 62%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 7 +5 +3 C- A- B +2 B- B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.4 4.8 1.0 11.8 1st
2nd 0.3 6.2 7.1 0.9 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.4 10.5 1.5 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 10.3 4.3 0.0 16.2 4th
5th 0.4 6.3 7.2 0.4 14.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 7.5 1.5 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.6 2.6 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.3 0.2 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.1 10.1 18.2 23.6 22.0 14.1 5.6 1.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
14-4 84.5% 4.8    2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 38.0% 5.4    0.8 2.2 1.9 0.5 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.8% 11.8 4.3 4.2 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.0% 24.9% 24.9% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.8
14-4 5.6% 21.5% 21.4% 0.1% 11.6 0.5 0.7 0.0 4.4 0.1%
13-5 14.1% 19.7% 19.7% 11.8 0.6 2.0 0.1 11.3
12-6 22.0% 14.7% 14.7% 12.1 0.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 18.8
11-7 23.6% 9.5% 9.5% 12.2 0.1 1.6 0.5 0.0 21.4
10-8 18.2% 6.8% 6.8% 12.4 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 16.9
9-9 10.1% 4.5% 4.5% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.6
8-10 4.1% 3.2% 3.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.0
7-11 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 12.0 88.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.0 9.6 78.8 11.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%