North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.3 #140
Expected Predictive Rating +1.1 #146
Pace 62.6 #335
Improvement +1.2 #124

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #288 D C D+ C+ B
Defense #46 B C- A F+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #8 1.11 #232 +4.7 #39
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #227 0.53 #363 -3.0 #320
Three Pointers 34% #326 0.86 #338 -6.4 #346
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #315 -4.7 #315
Freethrows 0.34 #75 70% #266 0.24 #122
Second Chance 32.5% #127 1.04 #195 0.34 #135
Turnovers 17.9% #277
Total Offense -4.4 #288

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #185 1.04 #47 +2.3 #104
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #113 0.75 #155 -0.5 #219
Three Pointers 39% #239 0.92 #62 +3.0 #70
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #48 +4.7 #49
Freethrows 0.39 #354 71% #122 0.28 #347
Second Chance 33.4% #297 1.00 #120 0.34 #230
Turnovers 21.4% #10
Total Defense +5.6 #46

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #49 -0.4% #133
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.0% #341 -8.8% #37
Possession Length 18.6 #301 17.6 #236
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #80 0.18 #212
Improvement +0.0 #183 +1.3 #103

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.7% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 78.0% 92.8% 74.6%
.500 or above in Conference 56.7% 80.0% 51.4%
Conference Champion 0.6% 2.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.0% 4.7% 2.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 18.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 35 - 57 - 12
Quad 410 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 267 Northwestern St. W 80 - 53 83% +8  1 - 0 +18 +16 A- A+ D +7 C+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 281 Loyola Chicago W 64 - 62 78% +4  2 - 0 -5 -9 F+ F F +4 A+ C C
 Wed, Nov 12 194 @Oregon St. L 64 - 66 52% +6  2 - 1 -1 -2 C+ C+ F +0 B+ B- D-
 Fri, Nov 14 42 @St. Mary's L 49 - 80 11% -23  2 - 2 -16 -14 F D- B+ -4 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 233 Central Arkansas W 74 - 56 79% +5  3 - 2 +11 -1 F D B+ +12 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 242 Eastern Washington W 79 - 71 OT 80% +2  4 - 2 +1 -2 F C+ B- +3 B+ B- B
 Sun, Nov 30 345 Prairie View W 72 - 69 93% -2  5 - 2 -12 -8 B- F F -4 C- D C+
 Tue, Dec 2 300 Houston Christian W 77 - 75 87% +1  6 - 2 -9 +7 A+ B- F -15 F A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 44 TCU L 55 - 65 24% -2  6 - 3 -1 -9 D- C- C- +7 A+ D- A+
 Sun, Dec 14 190 @South Alabama W 58 - 57 51% +4  7 - 3 +2 -7 F B- F +9 A+ F B+
 Wed, Dec 17 50 Santa Clara L 60 - 63 19% +2  7 - 4 +8 -6 F A+ B +13 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 103 @Memphis L 48 - 57 26% -8  7 - 5 0 - 1 -1 -14 F C F +13 C B- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 73 Tulsa W 72 - 67 37% -0  8 - 5 1 - 1 +10 +6 C- B+ A- +4 A+ D- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 69 South Florida L 70 - 74 35% -0  8 - 6 1 - 2 +1 +1 B- C+ C +0 B- F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 100 @Wichita St. L 67 - 78 25% -8  8 - 7 1 - 3 -3 -3 F+ B C- +0 F B+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 174 @Tulane W 71 - 63 48% +6  9 - 7 2 - 3 +10 +2 D+ D F +8 A C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 21 343 Texas San Antonio W 81 - 62 92% +14  10 - 7 3 - 3 +4 +4 C- A+ D- +0 C A+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 253 East Carolina L 59 - 63 81% -3  10 - 8 3 - 4 -12 -10 F C- A+ -3 C+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 73 @Tulsa L 66 - 75 19%
 Sat, Jan 31 118 UAB W 68 - 67 55%
 Wed, Feb 4 238 @Rice W 66 - 63 59%
 Sat, Feb 7 343 @Texas San Antonio W 71 - 61 83%
 Thu, Feb 12 103 Memphis L 64 - 65 48%
 Sun, Feb 15 143 @Temple L 64 - 67 39%
 Wed, Feb 18 174 Tulane W 68 - 63 70%
 Sun, Feb 22 102 Florida Atlantic L 68 - 69 47%
 Wed, Feb 25 172 @Charlotte L 64 - 65 47%
 Sun, Mar 1 118 @UAB L 65 - 70 34%
 Wed, Mar 4 238 Rice W 69 - 60 79%
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1 -4 D C D+ +6 B C- A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 2.2 0.2 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.9 0.9 6.8 4th
5th 0.4 5.2 3.7 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 7.2 0.8 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 9.6 3.5 0.0 15.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 8.1 7.0 0.3 16.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 6.9 8.5 1.4 0.0 17.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.2 1.2 0.0 10.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.3 7.0 13.7 19.7 22.1 17.4 11.3 4.6 1.2 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 82.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 32.6% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 17.2% 17.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 1.2% 13.8% 13.8% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
12-6 4.6% 11.1% 11.1% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.1
11-7 11.3% 6.6% 6.6% 12.6 0.3 0.4 0.0 10.5
10-8 17.4% 3.9% 3.9% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 16.8
9-9 22.1% 2.2% 2.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 21.6
8-10 19.7% 1.4% 1.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 19.4
7-11 13.7% 1.1% 1.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 13.6
6-12 7.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 6.9
5-13 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 12.9 97.0 0.0%