Charlotte
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.9 #172
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #168
Pace 62.3 #341
Improvement +0.1 #177

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #125 B- C C- C B
Defense #253 C- C D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #139 1.27 #70 +3.1 #77
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #330 0.69 #281 -3.5 #334
Three Pointers 48% #55 1.06 #118 +4.3 #51
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #68 +4.0 #68
Freethrows 0.31 #156 73% #148 0.23 #180
Second Chance 33.0% #110 0.96 #294 0.32 #178
Turnovers 17.1% #228
Total Offense +1.6 #125

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #150 1.17 #191 -0.9 #210
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #213 0.77 #206 +0.4 #159
Three Pointers 41% #190 1.06 #245 -0.8 #219
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #226 -1.4 #225
Freethrows 0.32 #261 70% #61 0.23 #215
Second Chance 29.8% #143 1.08 #240 0.32 #190
Turnovers 14.4% #304
Total Defense -2.5 #253

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #41 0.5% #216
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.5% #90 2.2% #224
Possession Length 18.9 #320 18.2 #307
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #254 0.17 #178
Improvement -0.2 #190 +0.3 #171

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.8% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 41.8% 62.4% 32.4%
.500 or above in Conference 74.8% 90.9% 67.5%
Conference Champion 1.5% 3.6% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.4% 1.8% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Away) - 31.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 34 - 75 - 15
Quad 410 - 115 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 195 Indiana St. W 92 - 76 66% +9  1 - 0 +11 +18 A A+ B+ -7 C C- F+
 Fri, Nov 7 337 Tennessee Tech W 70 - 65 89% +9  2 - 0 -9 -4 C+ A- F -5 D F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 133 Davidson L 55 - 62 52% -10  2 - 1 -8 -7 F D- C+ -3 D+ A B+
 Sun, Nov 16 60 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 84 11% -8  2 - 2 +4 +14 B- B+ A+ -10 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 202 @Appalachian St. L 63 - 65 45% +2  2 - 3 -2 +7 D+ B+ F+ -9 D D+ C-
 Thu, Nov 27 89 Illinois St. L 69 - 79 25% -10  2 - 4 -4 +4 A+ F F -8 C- C- F
 Fri, Nov 28 121 Richmond L 66 - 71 36% -8  2 - 5 -2 -2 C F B -0 C C B-
 Tue, Dec 2 292 N.C. A&T W 74 - 57 82% +13  3 - 5 +7 +1 A- B+ F +7 A B B-
 Sun, Dec 7 40 Utah St. L 53 - 79 16% -11  3 - 6 -16 -12 F A+ F -6 B- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 162 @College of Charleston L 67 - 74 35% -4  3 - 7 -4 -3 C F+ D- -2 D D+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 316 Lafayette W 81 - 67 85% +11  4 - 7 +2 +18 A+ C- B- -14 D F+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 136 Illinois-Chicago W 88 - 76 OT 53% -9  5 - 7 +10 +14 C+ D- B -4 D- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 143 Temple L 73 - 76 54% -8  5 - 8 0 - 1 -5 +1 C C- D+ -6 D- C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 100 Wichita St. W 104 - 100 2OT 38% -10  6 - 8 1 - 1 +6 +26 B+ A+ A- -20 F+ F C
 Wed, Jan 7 343 @Texas San Antonio W 74 - 58 77% +9  7 - 8 2 - 1 +7 +4 D+ C+ D+ +4 C+ C F
 Sun, Jan 11 238 @Rice W 74 - 73 52% +3  8 - 8 3 - 1 -0 +6 A+ F F+ -6 C B- D+
 Wed, Jan 14 73 Tulsa L 74 - 86 29% -10  8 - 9 3 - 2 -7 +3 B F A- -11 F A B+
 Sun, Jan 18 253 @East Carolina W 73 - 70 55% +7  9 - 9 4 - 2 +1 +7 A+ C F -6 C C+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 174 Tulane W 73 - 70 62% +5  10 - 9 5 - 2 -1 +0 A+ C F -1 C- A C-
 Wed, Jan 28 143 @Temple L 69 - 74 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 238 Rice W 74 - 68 73%
 Wed, Feb 4 100 @Wichita St. L 66 - 75 20%
 Sun, Feb 8 103 @Memphis L 66 - 75 20%
 Sun, Feb 15 343 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 66 90%
 Wed, Feb 18 73 @Tulsa L 70 - 82 14%
 Sat, Feb 21 253 East Carolina W 74 - 67 74%
 Wed, Feb 25 140 North Texas W 65 - 64 53%
 Sun, Mar 1 102 @Florida Atlantic L 70 - 79 20%
 Wed, Mar 4 118 UAB L 74 - 75 47%
 Sun, Mar 8 69 @South Florida L 71 - 83 13%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 8 -1 +2 B- C C- -3 C- C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 1.2 0.1 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 3.4 0.5 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 6.6 1.8 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.4 6.9 5.6 0.1 13.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.9 9.8 1.3 15.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 10.6 4.9 0.1 17.3 7th
8th 0.7 7.5 8.0 0.7 16.9 8th
9th 0.2 3.6 6.6 1.1 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.7 3.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 1.6 6.9 16.5 24.1 23.9 16.2 7.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 78.6% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 30.7% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 9.5% 9.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.5% 6.8% 6.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 2.4% 5.3% 5.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3
12-6 7.6% 4.2% 4.2% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.3
11-7 16.2% 2.6% 2.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 15.8
10-8 23.9% 1.0% 1.0% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 23.6
9-9 24.1% 0.6% 0.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 24.0
8-10 16.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 16.5
7-11 6.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 6.9
6-12 1.6% 1.6
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 13.7 98.6 0.0%