Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#118
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#108
Pace70.9#149
Improvement+0.9#122

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#89
First Shot+3.3#88
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#154
Layup/Dunks-0.2#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#78
Freethrows+0.1#178
Improvement-0.9#254

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#177
First Shot-3.4#293
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#19
Layups/Dunks-0.7#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#218
Freethrows-1.3#260
Improvement+1.8#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 11.8% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 11.8 12.3
.500 or above 81.6% 93.8% 79.8%
.500 or above in Conference 73.8% 81.9% 72.6%
Conference Champion 8.9% 13.8% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.4% 1.3%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round7.8% 11.8% 7.2%
Second Round1.2% 2.4% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 12.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 38 - 510 - 12
Quad 47 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 150 Boston College W 83-78 OT 70%     1 - 0 +2.7 +1.3 +0.7
  Sat, Nov 8 172 College of Charleston W 94-77 66%     2 - 0 +16.0 +23.4 -6.7
  Sun, Nov 9 108 @Liberty L 68-88 36%     2 - 1 -13.2 -0.4 -13.5
  Thu, Nov 20 129 Pacific W 82-59 66%     3 - 1 +22.1 +15.5 +8.4
  Mon, Nov 24 134 Loyola Marymount W 76-65 56%     4 - 1 +12.7 +13.1 +0.5
  Tue, Nov 25 75 George Mason L 65-74 33%     4 - 2 -1.3 +8.0 -10.9
  Sun, Nov 30 113 St. Bonaventure L 65-70 61%     4 - 3 -4.6 -2.6 -2.4
  Sun, Dec 7 181 @Florida Gulf Coast W 81-76 57%     5 - 3 +6.6 +7.9 -1.3
  Sat, Dec 13 329 Albany W 105-79 93%     6 - 3 +12.9 +10.5 -1.2
  Fri, Dec 19 38 @St. Mary's L 67-79 13%    
  Wed, Dec 31 286 Texas San Antonio W 83-70 89%    
  Sun, Jan 4 207 @Tulane W 79-76 62%    
  Wed, Jan 7 110 @UAB L 76-80 37%    
  Sun, Jan 11 76 Memphis L 77-78 45%    
  Thu, Jan 15 98 Wichita St. W 74-73 54%    
  Sun, Jan 18 163 @Temple W 80-79 52%    
  Wed, Jan 21 207 Tulane W 82-73 81%    
  Sun, Jan 25 86 @South Florida L 78-84 28%    
  Thu, Jan 29 76 @Memphis L 74-81 25%    
  Sun, Feb 1 287 East Carolina W 82-69 88%    
  Wed, Feb 4 83 Tulsa L 78-79 47%    
  Wed, Feb 11 210 @Rice W 75-72 62%    
  Sun, Feb 15 86 South Florida L 81-82 49%    
  Wed, Feb 18 286 @Texas San Antonio W 80-73 73%    
  Sun, Feb 22 146 @North Texas L 69-70 48%    
  Wed, Feb 25 163 Temple W 82-76 72%    
  Sun, Mar 1 195 Charlotte W 77-68 77%    
  Sat, Mar 7 98 @Wichita St. L 71-76 34%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.9 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 8.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.5 2.6 0.6 0.1 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.7 5.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 6.0 3.4 0.3 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.9 4.0 0.5 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.8 4.5 0.8 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.4 4.8 1.2 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 4.4 1.6 0.1 8.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.2 1.8 0.2 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.4 0.2 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.3 4.3 7.3 10.9 13.1 14.5 13.9 12.5 9.1 5.8 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 96.1% 1.2    1.1 0.1 0.0
15-3 81.1% 2.6    1.9 0.7 0.1
14-4 49.4% 2.9    1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.9% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 4.8 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 29.5% 25.7% 3.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5.1%
16-2 1.3% 33.8% 33.2% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.8%
15-3 3.2% 23.4% 23.4% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.5
14-4 5.8% 18.8% 18.7% 0.1% 11.8 0.3 0.7 0.1 4.8 0.1%
13-5 9.1% 15.1% 15.1% 12.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.8
12-6 12.5% 12.1% 12.1% 12.3 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 11.0
11-7 13.9% 8.0% 8.0% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 12.8
10-8 14.5% 5.4% 5.4% 12.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 13.7
9-9 13.1% 2.5% 2.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.7
8-10 10.9% 1.6% 1.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.7
7-11 7.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.2
6-12 4.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
5-13 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 4.1 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 92.2 0.0%