IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+5.1	#102
Expected Predictive Rating	+5.6	#90

Pace	74.0	#56
Improvement	+1.1	#133

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#111	B-	B	C-	C	C+
Defense	#100	C+	B	C+	C-	D

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	40%	#151	1.19	#140	+1.2	#134
2 Pt. Jumpers	18%	#217	1.00	#7	+1.4	#103
Three Pointers	42%	#152	0.99	#219	+0.0	#176
1st FG Attempt			1.07	#105	+2.6	#106
Freethrows	0.30	#180	72%	#194	0.22	#179
Second Chance	33.1%	#107	1.19	#35	0.39	#47
Turnovers					17.0%	#217
Total Offense					+2.4	#111

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	45%	#33	1.04	#53	-1.0	#212
2 Pt. Jumpers	18%	#267	0.67	#56	+1.8	#58
Three Pointers	38%	#276	1.05	#236	+1.2	#136
1st FG Attempt			0.98	#121	+2.0	#120
Freethrows	0.32	#233	72%	#198	0.23	#238
Second Chance	27.2%	#67	0.99	#98	0.27	#62
Turnovers					17.2%	#132
Total Defense					+2.7	#100

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	0.7%	#141	1.6%	#311
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	4.4%	#105	-5.4%	#78
Possession Length	15.6	#37	17.6	#230
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.22	#66	0.16	#148
Improvement	-2.4	#310	+3.5	#20

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.9%	15.6%	11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.1	11.9	12.2

.500 or above	99.3%	99.9%	98.9%
.500 or above in Conference	99.2%	99.9%	98.7%
Conference Champion	29.7%	44.3%	20.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	12.9%	15.6%	11.3%
Second Round	1.6%	2.1%	1.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	3 - 5	3 - 8
Quad 3	10 - 3	13 - 11
Quad 4	7 - 1	20 - 12

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	130 Boston College	W	83 - 78 OT	73%	+2	1 - 0		+4	+3	A-	D-	C	+0	B-	F	B
Sat, Nov 8	162 College of Charleston	W	94 - 77	69%	+15	2 - 0		+17	+25	B	A+	B+	-7	C	A	D-
Sun, Nov 9	95 @Liberty	L	68 - 88	37%	-15	2 - 1		-11	-1	F	A+	C-	-11	D-	C+	C
Thu, Nov 20	131 Pacific	W	82 - 59	73%	+11	3 - 1		+22	+15	A+	D-	F	+9	B	A+	A-
Mon, Nov 24	155 Loyola Marymount	W	76 - 65	68%	+7	4 - 1		+11	+13	A+	C+	F	-0	B	A-	D
Tue, Nov 25	87 George Mason	L	65 - 74	44%	-11	4 - 2		-2	+6	B	D	C-	-10	F	B+	D
Sun, Nov 30	150 St. Bonaventure	L	65 - 70	76%	-2	4 - 3		-7	-6	F	B	D-	-2	F+	A+	B
Sun, Dec 7	231 @Florida Gulf Coast	W	81 - 76	72%	-0	5 - 3		+4	+6	D-	C	D+	-2	C	B-	A-
Sat, Dec 13	309 Albany	W	105 - 79	93%	+20	6 - 3		+14	+12	A+	F+	D	-1	D+	A+	D+
Fri, Dec 19	42 @St. Mary's	L	75 - 88	18%	-10	6 - 4		+2	+4	C-	B+	F	-1	B-	B	B-
Tue, Dec 23	49 Central Florida	L	80 - 85	29%	+1	6 - 5		+6	+5	C	A+	C+	+2	C+	B+	C+
Wed, Dec 31	343 Texas San Antonio	W	110 - 70	96%	+27	7 - 5	1 - 0	+25	+17	A+	B	D-	+3	B+	B	C+
Sun, Jan 4	174 @Tulane	L	66 - 69	62%	+1	7 - 6	1 - 1	-1	-5	F+	B-	F	+4	B-	D+	B-
Wed, Jan 7	118 @UAB	W	76 - 71	47%	+7	8 - 6	2 - 1	+11	+2	F+	B	C+	+9	A+	B-	A-
Sun, Jan 11	103 Memphis	W	89 - 78	62%	+8	9 - 6	3 - 1	+13	+12	A-	A+	C	+0	C-	A+	D+
Thu, Jan 15	100 Wichita St.	W	85 - 67	61%	+15	10 - 6	4 - 1	+20	+13	A+	F+	D+	+7	A	A+	B
Sun, Jan 18	143 @Temple	W	79 - 73	54%	-2	11 - 6	5 - 1	+10	-1	F	A+	C	+11	A	C	A+
Wed, Jan 21	174 Tulane	W	79 - 74	81%	+6	12 - 6	6 - 1	+1	+3	B	D-	B+	-2	B-	F+	B+
Sun, Jan 25	69 @South Florida	L	75 - 89	28%	-2	12 - 7	6 - 2	-3	+6	D-	A	A+	-9	A	F	C-
Thu, Jan 29	103 @Memphis	L	73 - 76	39%
Sun, Feb 1	253 East Carolina	W	81 - 68	89%
Wed, Feb 4	73 Tulsa	W	82 - 81	51%
Wed, Feb 11	238 @Rice	W	78 - 72	73%
Sun, Feb 15	69 South Florida	L	82 - 83	49%
Wed, Feb 18	343 @Texas San Antonio	W	84 - 70	90%
Sun, Feb 22	140 @North Texas	W	69 - 68	53%
Wed, Feb 25	143 Temple	W	79 - 72	74%
Sun, Mar 1	172 Charlotte	W	79 - 70	80%
Sat, Mar 7	100 @Wichita St.	L	73 - 76	38%
Totals						18 - 11	12 - 6	+5	+2	B-	B	C-	+3	C+	B	C+

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st												0.0	0.9	8.1	12.7	6.7	1.3			29.7	1st
2nd												0.4	7.5	12.4	3.2	0.2				23.7	2nd
3rd											0.0	3.5	11.4	3.2	0.1					18.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.8	7.1	3.6	0.1						11.6	4th
5th										0.1	2.9	4.6	0.3							7.9	5th
6th										0.6	3.1	0.9	0.0							4.6	6th
7th									0.1	1.2	1.2	0.0								2.6	7th
8th								0.0	0.3	0.8	0.1									1.2	8th
9th								0.0	0.3	0.1										0.4	9th
10th								0.1	0.0											0.1	10th
11th								0.0	0.0											0.0	11th
12th																					12th
13th																					13th

Total								0.1	0.7	2.8	8.3	16.5	23.7	23.8	16.0	6.9	1.3				Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	100.0%	1.3	1.3
15-3	97.7%	6.7	5.8	0.9	0.0
14-4	79.5%	12.7	6.6	5.3	0.8	0.0
13-5	34.0%	8.1	1.2	3.4	2.7	0.8	0.0
12-6	3.7%	0.9	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	29.7%	29.7	14.9	9.7	3.9	1.1	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	1.3%	26.7%	26.3%	0.4%	11.1										0.0	0.3	0.1					0.9	0.5%
15-3	6.9%	23.6%	23.5%	0.1%	11.6										0.0	0.7	0.9	0.0				5.3	0.2%
14-4	16.0%	18.2%	18.2%		11.9											0.5	2.2	0.2				13.1
13-5	23.8%	14.8%	14.8%		12.1											0.3	2.6	0.6	0.0			20.3
12-6	23.7%	12.0%	12.0%		12.3											0.1	1.9	0.8	0.0			20.8
11-7	16.5%	7.2%	7.2%		12.5											0.0	0.6	0.6	0.0			15.3
10-8	8.3%	5.1%	5.1%		12.6												0.2	0.2	0.0			7.8
9-9	2.8%	3.0%	3.0%		13.0												0.0	0.1	0.0			2.7
8-10	0.7%																					0.7
7-11	0.1%	4.8%	4.8%		16.0																0.0	0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	12.9%	12.9%	0.0%	12.1																	87.1	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	10	11	12
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	11.1	4.5	77.6	17.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.4%	1.4%	11.0		1.4