Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.8 #343
Expected Predictive Rating -12.9 #342
Pace 72.3 #85
Improvement -1.7 #267

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #336 F+ D C- D C
Defense #310 C- D- C- B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #267 0.97 #354 -5.1 #337
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #183 0.71 #255 -0.6 #208
Three Pointers 44% #121 0.84 #352 -2.3 #260
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #357 -8.0 #357
Freethrows 0.26 #311 72% #205 0.18 #316
Second Chance 28.8% #232 0.86 #357 0.25 #322
Turnovers 17.4% #246
Total Offense -6.9 #336

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #195 1.17 #197 -0.2 #184
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #346 0.70 #83 +2.8 #11
Three Pointers 47% #34 1.09 #282 -4.8 #342
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #262 -2.3 #262
Freethrows 0.27 #68 71% #124 0.19 #72
Second Chance 37.6% #357 1.06 #199 0.40 #335
Turnovers 15.4% #237
Total Defense -4.8 #310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #212 1.6% #314
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.4% #361 2.9% #235
Possession Length 16.9 #125 17.1 #147
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #142 0.23 #341
Improvement +1.2 #119 -2.9 #326

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 95.7% 89.6% 96.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Home) - 13.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 31 - 91 - 17
Quad 43 - 94 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 264 SIU Edwardsville L 60 - 77 38% -3  0 - 1 -26 -16 F F B+ -9 C- F B
 Wed, Nov 12 275 @Texas St. L 69 - 80 22% -10  0 - 2 -14 -4 F C B -10 A- F F
 Sat, Nov 15 284 @Denver W 84 - 79 24% +4  1 - 2 +1 +9 A- D- D- -8 D A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 252 Abilene Christian L 50 - 61 26% -7  1 - 3 -16 -17 F D+ D -1 A+ F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 246 Georgia Southern W 77 - 64 25% -1  2 - 3 +8 -4 F D+ A +11 A+ D+ B-
 Sun, Nov 30 190 South Alabama L 58 - 82 26% -14  2 - 4 -29 -17 F F+ B+ -12 D- F+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 16 @Alabama L 55 - 97 1% -27  2 - 5 -21 -16 D- F+ F -1 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 82 @Colorado L 64 - 88 3% -10  2 - 6 -14 -8 D- D+ F -5 F+ A- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 48 @USC L 70 - 97 2% -10  2 - 7 -13 +1 F+ A+ F -12 F D- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 123 Seattle L 68 - 71 15% -4  2 - 8 -3 -3 B F+ C- -0 A- D+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 102 @Florida Atlantic L 70 - 110 4% -27  2 - 9 0 - 1 -32 -7 F D C- -20 F D- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 143 @Temple L 57 - 76 8% -9  2 - 10 0 - 2 -15 -11 F D+ F -5 B F C+
 Wed, Jan 7 172 Charlotte L 58 - 74 23% -9  2 - 11 0 - 3 -20 -14 F D B- -8 B F+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 174 Tulane L 52 - 85 23% -19  2 - 12 0 - 4 -37 -22 F F F -16 F F C
 Wed, Jan 14 238 Rice L 73 - 89 33% -11  2 - 13 0 - 5 -23 +5 C- C+ B- -31 F F D-
 Sun, Jan 18 103 @Memphis L 69 - 95 4% -12  2 - 14 0 - 6 -18 +2 C D+ F+ -19 F B D-
 Wed, Jan 21 140 @North Texas L 62 - 81 8% -14  2 - 15 0 - 7 -15 -2 D+ F C- -14 D F C+
 Sat, Jan 24 143 Temple L 64 - 70 18% -0  2 - 16 0 - 8 -8 -3 D C D- -6 C C- C
 Wed, Jan 28 118 UAB L 71 - 83 14%
 Wed, Feb 4 69 @South Florida L 69 - 92 2%
 Sat, Feb 7 140 North Texas L 61 - 71 17%
 Wed, Feb 11 253 @East Carolina L 68 - 78 18%
 Sun, Feb 15 172 @Charlotte L 66 - 80 10%
 Wed, Feb 18 102 Florida Atlantic L 70 - 84 10%
 Sun, Feb 22 73 @Tulsa L 68 - 90 2%
 Wed, Feb 25 253 East Carolina L 71 - 75 37%
 Sun, Mar 1 100 Wichita St. L 66 - 80 10%
 Sun, Mar 8 238 @Rice L 69 - 79 17%
Totals 3 - 25 1 - 17 -12 -7 F+ D C- -5 C- D- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 11th
12th 2.3 4.5 2.1 0.3 9.2 12th
13th 25.1 35.2 22.3 6.1 0.8 0.0 89.5 13th
Total 25.1 35.2 24.6 10.8 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14 3.4% 3.4
3-15 10.8% 10.8
2-16 24.6% 24.6
1-17 35.2% 35.2
0-18 25.1% 25.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 19.9%