East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#287
Expected Predictive Rating-12.2#327
Pace71.3#136
Improvement-1.9#308

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#313
First Shot-4.9#305
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#206
Layup/Dunks+1.7#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.9#354
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement-2.3#337

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#224
First Shot-3.2#283
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#77
Layups/Dunks-1.5#243
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#221
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#248
Freethrows+0.3#158
Improvement+0.4#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 0.6% 1.3% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 6.6% 8.3% 5.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 39.1% 34.7% 43.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Home) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 60 - 9
Quad 32 - 72 - 16
Quad 46 - 78 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 231 Georgia Southern W 92-89 50%     1 - 0 -4.0 +2.4 -6.8
  Sat, Nov 8 102 @Richmond L 72-87 9%     1 - 1 -7.3 -0.8 -5.7
  Tue, Nov 18 109 @UNC Wilmington L 60-85 11%     1 - 2 -18.2 -8.5 -10.9
  Fri, Nov 21 266 Charleston Southern L 65-77 57%     1 - 3 -20.6 -11.0 -9.5
  Tue, Nov 25 12 Michigan St. L 56-89 2%     1 - 4 -15.1 -7.4 -6.8
  Thu, Nov 27 113 St. Bonaventure L 58-67 17%     1 - 5 -5.6 -13.6 +8.1
  Tue, Dec 2 343 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-56 77%     2 - 5 -2.6 +2.1 -2.5
  Sat, Dec 6 281 UNC Greensboro L 78-82 60%     2 - 6 -13.5 -0.1 -13.4
  Thu, Dec 11 259 Appalachian St. L 54-67 56%     2 - 7 -21.4 -17.6 -4.7
  Sun, Dec 14 209 Buffalo L 74-75 47%    
  Wed, Dec 17 260 Presbyterian W 67-65 56%    
  Mon, Dec 22 22 @North Carolina L 62-87 1%    
  Wed, Dec 31 207 Tulane L 73-74 47%    
  Wed, Jan 7 163 @Temple L 71-81 19%    
  Sun, Jan 11 110 UAB L 70-78 24%    
  Wed, Jan 14 86 @South Florida L 70-86 6%    
  Sun, Jan 18 195 Charlotte L 68-70 44%    
  Wed, Jan 21 98 @Wichita St. L 63-78 8%    
  Sat, Jan 24 146 @North Texas L 60-71 16%    
  Wed, Jan 28 210 Rice L 70-71 47%    
  Sun, Feb 1 118 @Florida Atlantic L 69-82 12%    
  Sat, Feb 7 163 Temple L 74-78 37%    
  Wed, Feb 11 286 Texas San Antonio W 74-71 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 210 @Rice L 67-74 27%    
  Wed, Feb 18 98 Wichita St. L 66-75 21%    
  Sat, Feb 21 195 @Charlotte L 65-73 25%    
  Wed, Feb 25 286 @Texas San Antonio L 71-74 39%    
  Sun, Mar 1 76 Memphis L 68-80 15%    
  Thu, Mar 5 83 Tulsa L 70-81 16%    
  Sun, Mar 8 110 @UAB L 67-81 11%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.1 1.2 0.1 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 12.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.4 7.7 3.7 0.4 0.0 17.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.6 6.2 8.6 4.4 0.6 0.0 21.5 12th
13th 1.3 4.8 8.7 7.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 26.8 13th
Total 1.3 4.9 10.3 14.8 16.9 16.3 13.2 9.6 6.0 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 26.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 11.8% 11.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
9-9 3.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.5
8-10 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
7-11 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.5
6-12 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.2
5-13 16.3% 16.3
4-14 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.9
3-15 14.8% 14.8
2-16 10.3% 10.3
1-17 4.9% 4.9
0-18 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%