East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.5 #257
Expected Predictive Rating -8.8 #309
Pace 71.1 #120
Improvement +2.7 #68

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #312 D- C C- C+ D+
Defense #169 C- D+ C C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #122 1.06 #295 -0.7 #204
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #63 0.67 #306 +1.3 #108
Three Pointers 32% #339 0.85 #343 -7.1 #353
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #344 -6.5 #344
Freethrows 0.34 #67 70% #269 0.24 #116
Second Chance 32.9% #113 0.96 #293 0.32 #172
Turnovers 17.6% #260
Total Offense -5.4 #312

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #240 1.14 #149 +1.5 #127
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #147 0.80 #252 -0.8 #245
Three Pointers 42% #156 1.08 #273 -1.7 #266
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #213 -1.1 #212
Freethrows 0.27 #75 74% #278 0.20 #108
Second Chance 28.9% #115 1.23 #350 0.36 #275
Turnovers 16.8% #157
Total Defense -0.1 #169

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #273 -0.5% #123
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.6% #344 2.7% #233
Possession Length 17.2 #157 16.7 #64
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #218 0.22 #329
Improvement +1.4 #111 +1.3 #99

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 2.1% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.9% 2.1% 13.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Away) - 12.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 32 - 83 - 16
Quad 46 - 69 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 246 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 58% +2  1 - 0 -5 +1 D- A+ B+ -7 D+ F B
 Sat, Nov 8 117 @Richmond L 72 - 87 15% -10  1 - 1 -9 -3 D D+ C- -6 D B+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 115 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 14% -12  1 - 2 -19 -8 F D+ C- -12 F C+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 247 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 59% -7  1 - 3 -20 -11 D- C+ D- -9 F+ B F
 Tue, Nov 25 8 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2% -22  1 - 4 -12 -5 C+ C F -6 D C D+
 Thu, Nov 27 142 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 26% -2  1 - 5 -8 -17 F F F +9 B+ B A-
 Tue, Dec 2 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 78% +5  2 - 5 -2 +3 B+ D+ C- -3 D C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 308 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 72% -2  2 - 6 -16 -3 F A+ F -13 C F C
 Thu, Dec 11 197 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 49% -9  2 - 7 -18 -16 F D+ C -3 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 187 Buffalo W 73 - 70 48% -8  3 - 7 -2 -4 F B A+ +2 A- D+ A-
 Wed, Dec 17 255 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 61% +10  4 - 7 +13 -1 B D+ F +14 A+ C- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 28 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 3% -24  4 - 8 -30 -19 F D F -7 F+ C- B
 Wed, Dec 31 180 Tulane L 70 - 79 46% -1  4 - 9 0 - 1 -14 -1 D- D- A+ -13 D- F A
 Wed, Jan 7 147 @Temple L 67 - 75 19% -9  4 - 10 0 - 2 -4 -1 B- D+ D- -4 A- F C+
 Sun, Jan 11 119 UAB L 85 - 87 OT 31% -2  4 - 11 0 - 3 -2 -2 D+ B- F+ -0 C+ C D+
 Wed, Jan 14 67 @South Florida L 71 - 82 7% -11  4 - 12 0 - 4 +0 -1 D C A +2 C A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 164 Charlotte L 70 - 73 42% -7  4 - 13 0 - 5 -6 -3 D- C- A+ -4 F C- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 97 @Wichita St. L 60 - 77 11% -14  4 - 14 0 - 6 -9 -4 F D A+ -6 A- F D
 Fri, Jan 23 144 @North Texas W 63 - 59 18% +3  5 - 14 1 - 6 +8 +3 D+ A+ F +5 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 28 232 Rice L 77 - 83 56% -7  5 - 15 1 - 7 -13 -1 F+ C+ B+ -12 F D- C
 Sun, Feb 1 107 @Florida Atlantic L 69 - 82 12%
 Sat, Feb 7 147 Temple L 70 - 73 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 342 Texas San Antonio W 78 - 69 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 232 @Rice L 69 - 74 33%
 Wed, Feb 18 97 Wichita St. L 67 - 75 24%
 Sat, Feb 21 164 @Charlotte L 67 - 75 24%
 Wed, Feb 25 342 @Texas San Antonio W 75 - 72 61%
 Sun, Mar 1 92 Memphis L 67 - 76 21%
 Thu, Mar 5 70 Tulsa L 72 - 83 16%
 Sun, Mar 8 119 @UAB L 69 - 80 16%
Totals 8 - 22 4 - 14 -5 -5 D- C C- +0 C- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 8th
9th 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 4.9 3.0 0.3 10.2 10th
11th 0.6 4.8 9.7 5.9 0.6 21.7 11th
12th 7.1 18.9 21.8 10.1 1.6 0.0 59.5 12th
13th 1.6 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.1 13th
Total 1.6 9.8 20.2 26.8 21.8 12.8 5.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.4% 0.4
8-10 1.4% 1.4
7-11 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
6-12 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.8
5-13 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.8
4-14 26.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 26.7
3-15 20.2% 20.2
2-16 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
1-17 1.6% 1.6
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%