Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#76
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#99
Pace72.7#95
Improvement+1.5#81

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#102
First Shot+0.8#151
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#57
Layup/Dunks+6.1#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#336
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#260
Freethrows+0.4#151
Improvement+0.2#158

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#57
First Shot+3.5#65
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#108
Layups/Dunks+3.2#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#294
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement+1.3#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.1% 31.5% 23.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 5.3% 1.2%
Average Seed 11.3 10.8 11.5
.500 or above 88.0% 95.7% 85.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 97.2% 94.1%
Conference Champion 31.8% 38.4% 29.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.1% 2.2% 0.7%
First Round24.6% 30.4% 22.8%
Second Round6.7% 9.4% 5.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.9% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Home) - 23.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 23 - 45 - 9
Quad 38 - 313 - 12
Quad 47 - 120 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 96 San Francisco W 76-70 69%     1 - 0 +8.4 -0.1 +8.1
  Tue, Nov 11 60 @Mississippi L 77-83 33%     1 - 1 +6.1 +13.4 -7.5
  Sun, Nov 16 141 UNLV L 78-92 81%     1 - 2 -15.6 -5.4 -8.5
  Thu, Nov 20 7 Purdue L 71-80 12%     1 - 3 +11.5 +8.1 +3.1
  Fri, Nov 21 51 Wake Forest L 68-69 38%     1 - 4 +9.8 +3.3 +6.4
  Wed, Nov 26 130 Southern Illinois W 74-58 79%     2 - 4 +15.1 +1.0 +14.0
  Wed, Dec 3 245 New Orleans W 86-70 92%     3 - 4 +8.2 +7.4 +0.7
  Sat, Dec 6 32 Baylor W 78-71 40%     4 - 4 +17.3 +6.0 +11.1
  Sat, Dec 13 10 @Louisville L 73-99 10%     4 - 5 -4.2 +6.5 -10.1
  Wed, Dec 17 11 Vanderbilt L 76-84 23%    
  Sat, Dec 20 80 @Mississippi St. L 74-77 40%    
  Mon, Dec 22 264 Alabama St. W 84-68 94%    
  Wed, Dec 31 146 North Texas W 73-63 82%    
  Sat, Jan 3 210 @Rice W 76-68 77%    
  Sun, Jan 11 118 @Florida Atlantic W 78-77 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 163 Temple W 83-72 84%    
  Sun, Jan 18 286 Texas San Antonio W 83-65 95%    
  Wed, Jan 21 83 @Tulsa L 76-78 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 98 @Wichita St. L 71-72 49%    
  Thu, Jan 29 118 Florida Atlantic W 81-74 75%    
  Sun, Feb 1 207 Tulane W 83-69 89%    
  Thu, Feb 5 110 @UAB W 77-76 53%    
  Sun, Feb 8 195 Charlotte W 77-64 88%    
  Thu, Feb 12 146 @North Texas W 70-66 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 43 @Utah St. L 72-79 27%    
  Thu, Feb 19 86 @South Florida L 78-80 44%    
  Sun, Feb 22 110 UAB W 80-73 73%    
  Thu, Feb 26 98 Wichita St. W 75-69 69%    
  Sun, Mar 1 287 @East Carolina W 80-68 85%    
  Thu, Mar 5 86 South Florida W 81-77 64%    
  Sun, Mar 8 207 @Tulane W 80-72 75%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.2 7.8 9.6 6.8 3.3 0.7 31.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.6 8.4 6.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 6.7 4.0 0.8 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.3 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 3.0 5.4 8.6 12.1 14.8 16.2 14.9 11.8 7.1 3.3 0.7 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.6% 3.3    3.2 0.1
16-2 95.8% 6.8    6.0 0.8 0.0
15-3 81.7% 9.6    6.9 2.5 0.2
14-4 52.0% 7.8    3.4 3.3 1.0 0.1
13-5 19.7% 3.2    0.6 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
12-6 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.8% 31.8 20.9 8.1 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 76.9% 52.0% 24.9% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 51.9%
17-1 3.3% 60.1% 46.5% 13.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.3 25.6%
16-2 7.1% 48.2% 41.1% 7.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.7 12.0%
15-3 11.8% 38.8% 36.2% 2.6% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.0 1.1 0.0 7.2 4.1%
14-4 14.9% 30.5% 29.6% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 1.8 0.1 10.4 1.2%
13-5 16.2% 24.6% 24.3% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 1.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 12.2 0.3%
12-6 14.8% 20.3% 20.2% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.8 0.1%
11-7 12.1% 13.7% 13.7% 12.2 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 10.4
10-8 8.6% 9.9% 9.9% 12.5 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.7
9-9 5.4% 7.7% 7.7% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.0
8-10 3.0% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
7-11 1.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.3% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.1% 23.5% 1.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.8 11.1 9.0 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 74.9 2.1%