Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.0 #103
Expected Predictive Rating +3.7 #106
Pace 73.0 #73
Improvement -4.3 #337

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #206 C B+ D- C- C
Defense #40 B C+ B+ C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #131 1.19 #142 +1.7 #114
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #166 0.68 #295 -0.6 #213
Three Pointers 39% #231 0.99 #223 -1.8 #243
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #195 -0.7 #194
Freethrows 0.29 #232 70% #267 0.20 #247
Second Chance 36.8% #29 1.16 #56 0.43 #29
Turnovers 19.2% #335
Total Offense -1.4 #206

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #322 1.19 #213 +3.0 #84
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #116 0.63 #20 +0.8 #133
Three Pointers 45% #65 0.86 #26 +1.3 #133
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #43 +5.1 #43
Freethrows 0.31 #209 72% #142 0.22 #198
Second Chance 32.2% #256 0.92 #35 0.30 #112
Turnovers 19.8% #31
Total Defense +6.4 #40

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #181 -1.2% #77
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.6% #200 -8.8% #38
Possession Length 16.1 #66 18.0 #285
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #52 0.19 #255
Improvement -5.2 #359 +0.9 #132

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 12.9% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.8
.500 or above 63.7% 74.1% 47.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.8% 93.7% 78.5%
Conference Champion 7.5% 11.0% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round11.3% 12.9% 8.8%
Second Round1.5% 1.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Home) - 61.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 22 - 62 - 12
Quad 38 - 410 - 16
Quad 47 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 98 San Francisco W 76 - 70 60% +9  1 - 0 +8 +0 C A+ F +8 C+ A- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 64 @Mississippi L 77 - 83 26% -5  1 - 1 +6 +13 A+ F+ A+ -8 F+ C D+
 Sun, Nov 16 125 UNLV L 78 - 92 72% -11  1 - 2 -15 -5 D- B+ F -8 F+ A C+
 Thu, Nov 20 8 Purdue L 71 - 80 8% -1  1 - 3 +11 +8 C- A+ C +4 C+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 68 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 37% +5  1 - 4 +7 +2 B+ B- F+ +5 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 145 Southern Illinois W 74 - 58 75% +11  2 - 4 +14 +3 C A+ F +11 A+ C- B-
 Wed, Dec 3 219 New Orleans W 86 - 70 86% +16  3 - 4 +10 +7 A+ F+ F +3 B- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 45 Baylor W 78 - 71 37% +2  4 - 4 +16 +5 D- A+ A- +10 A+ A- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 18 @Louisville L 73 - 99 8% -17  4 - 5 -6 +7 D A+ B -12 F F B
 Wed, Dec 17 12 Vanderbilt L 70 - 77 OT 15% -3  4 - 6 +9 -9 D C- F+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 85 @Mississippi St. L 66 - 71 32% -4  4 - 7 +5 -1 D- A+ F +6 B- A- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 318 Alabama St. W 88 - 67 94% +13  5 - 7 +9 +5 A- C F +3 A- F+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 140 North Texas W 57 - 48 74% +8  6 - 7 1 - 0 +7 -9 B B- F +16 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 238 @Rice W 76 - 70 73% -1  7 - 7 2 - 0 +5 +7 F A+ F -2 B D B+
 Sun, Jan 11 102 @Florida Atlantic L 78 - 89 38% -8  7 - 8 2 - 1 -3 +1 B- D+ C- -3 C F+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 143 Temple W 55 - 53 75% +4  8 - 8 3 - 1 +0 -15 F C D +15 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 343 Texas San Antonio W 95 - 69 96% +12  9 - 8 4 - 1 +11 +13 A+ D+ C- -2 D+ C A+
 Wed, Jan 21 73 @Tulsa L 66 - 83 29% -3  9 - 9 4 - 2 -6 -2 F+ B F -6 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 24 100 @Wichita St. L 59 - 74 38% -13  9 - 10 4 - 3 -7 -11 F B+ F +5 C A- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 102 Florida Atlantic W 76 - 73 61%
 Sun, Feb 1 174 Tulane W 76 - 67 80%
 Thu, Feb 5 118 @UAB L 74 - 75 47%
 Sun, Feb 8 172 Charlotte W 75 - 66 80%
 Thu, Feb 12 140 @North Texas W 65 - 64 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 40 @Utah St. L 68 - 79 16%
 Thu, Feb 19 69 @South Florida L 75 - 81 29%
 Sun, Feb 22 118 UAB W 77 - 72 68%
 Thu, Feb 26 100 Wichita St. W 72 - 69 60%
 Sun, Mar 1 253 @East Carolina W 74 - 67 75%
 Thu, Mar 5 69 South Florida L 77 - 78 49%
 Sun, Mar 8 174 @Tulane W 73 - 70 61%
Totals 16 - 15 11 - 7 +5 -1 C B+ D- +6 B C+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 3.3 3.0 0.6 7.5 1st
2nd 0.3 4.8 5.5 0.9 0.0 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.6 8.7 1.4 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 9.5 3.6 0.1 14.6 4th
5th 0.3 6.5 6.9 0.3 14.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 8.0 1.4 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 6.0 3.3 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.4 4.1 0.2 8.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 7.9 13.8 19.5 21.7 17.9 10.3 4.0 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 97.6% 0.6    0.5 0.1
14-4 76.0% 3.0    1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 32.2% 3.3    0.4 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 2.2 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.6% 26.2% 26.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
14-4 4.0% 21.7% 21.7% 11.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 3.1
13-5 10.3% 19.9% 19.9% 11.9 0.4 1.4 0.2 8.3
12-6 17.9% 17.9% 17.9% 12.1 0.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 14.7
11-7 21.7% 11.4% 11.4% 12.5 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 19.3
10-8 19.5% 7.3% 7.3% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 18.0
9-9 13.8% 5.1% 5.1% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 13.1
8-10 7.9% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.5
7-11 3.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.0
6-12 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 12.4 88.7 0.0%