Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#210
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#237
Pace64.5#306
Improvement+0.6#140

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#201
First Shot-1.0#200
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#196
Layup/Dunks-7.4#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#45
Freethrows-1.3#264
Improvement+1.1#87

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#232
First Shot-1.7#232
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#198
Layups/Dunks+1.0#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#68
Freethrows-2.3#315
Improvement-0.5#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 14.8% 20.7% 7.9%
.500 or above in Conference 27.4% 31.4% 22.7%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 10.4% 15.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Away) - 54.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 84 - 14
Quad 48 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 66 @Oregon L 63-67 9%     0 - 1 +7.3 -1.8 +8.9
  Tue, Nov 11 140 Stephen F. Austin L 69-81 44%     0 - 2 -13.6 -1.0 -13.0
  Fri, Nov 14 303 East Texas A&M W 71-64 77%     1 - 2 -3.9 -0.8 -2.7
  Mon, Nov 17 18 @Tennessee L 66-91 3%     1 - 3 -5.8 +4.4 -10.7
  Thu, Nov 20 199 Tarleton St. L 74-90 59%     1 - 4 -21.6 -5.7 -14.8
  Mon, Nov 24 160 Kennesaw St. L 84-89 OT 38%     1 - 5 -4.9 -1.1 -3.1
  Tue, Nov 25 181 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63-78 OT 32%     1 - 6 -13.4 -18.4 +6.8
  Wed, Nov 26 300 Oral Roberts W 81-62 67%     2 - 6 +11.2 +13.7 +0.1
  Wed, Dec 3 239 Texas St. W 77-72 66%     3 - 6 -2.4 +4.6 -6.8
  Sat, Dec 13 153 Arkansas St. W 77-76 48%     4 - 6 -1.6 +3.8 -5.4
  Sat, Dec 20 293 @Pepperdine W 68-67 54%    
  Wed, Dec 31 83 @Tulsa L 67-80 11%    
  Sat, Jan 3 76 Memphis L 68-76 23%    
  Wed, Jan 7 98 @Wichita St. L 63-74 15%    
  Sun, Jan 11 195 Charlotte W 69-67 58%    
  Wed, Jan 14 286 @Texas San Antonio W 71-70 53%    
  Wed, Jan 21 163 Temple W 74-73 50%    
  Sun, Jan 25 83 Tulsa L 70-77 26%    
  Wed, Jan 28 287 @East Carolina W 71-70 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 195 @Charlotte L 66-70 37%    
  Wed, Feb 4 146 North Texas L 64-65 47%    
  Sun, Feb 8 110 @UAB L 68-78 18%    
  Wed, Feb 11 118 Florida Atlantic L 72-75 38%    
  Sat, Feb 14 287 East Carolina W 74-67 73%    
  Sun, Feb 22 207 @Tulane L 71-74 39%    
  Wed, Feb 25 86 South Florida L 72-79 28%    
  Sun, Mar 1 163 @Temple L 71-77 30%    
  Wed, Mar 4 146 @North Texas L 61-68 27%    
  Sun, Mar 8 286 Texas San Antonio W 74-67 72%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.9 1.3 0.1 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.1 0.8 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.5 1.7 0.1 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.6 2.8 0.2 0.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.1 3.8 0.4 0.0 14.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 13.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.8 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.3 5.4 8.6 12.3 14.8 15.0 13.3 10.9 7.5 4.8 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 76.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 41.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 11.8% 11.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.4% 10.1% 10.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.3% 7.5% 7.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
12-6 2.3% 4.4% 4.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
11-7 4.8% 2.1% 2.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7
10-8 7.5% 1.3% 1.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.4
9-9 10.9% 0.6% 0.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 10.8
8-10 13.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 13.3
7-11 15.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 15.0
6-12 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.8
5-13 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.3
4-14 8.6% 8.6
3-15 5.4% 5.4
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.3 0.0%