Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #238
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 #245
Pace 64.5 #297
Improvement +1.8 #96

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #190 D+ C C- C- F+
Defense #281 C- C- C C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #359 1.03 #320 -7.6 #358
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #44 0.74 #201 +2.7 #58
Three Pointers 43% #141 1.07 #99 +2.3 #104
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #254 -2.6 #253
Freethrows 0.30 #202 70% #261 0.21 #214
Second Chance 34.6% #72 0.90 #335 0.31 #187
Turnovers 17.6% #257
Total Offense -1.0 #190

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #308 1.31 #334 +0.2 #169
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #23 0.63 #16 -1.0 #261
Three Pointers 38% #260 1.12 #310 -0.6 #204
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #225 -1.4 #224
Freethrows 0.31 #206 74% #260 0.23 #234
Second Chance 32.2% #261 1.04 #167 0.33 #228
Turnovers 15.9% #211
Total Defense -3.4 #281

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.4% #345 -2.5% #22
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.9% #203 5.4% #280
Possession Length 18.2 #262 17.5 #207
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #183 0.20 #274
Improvement +3.6 #23 -1.8 #286

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 0.6% 1.3% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 6.5% 12.0% 2.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 0.7% 3.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 41.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 104 - 15
Quad 47 - 510 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 72 @Oregon L 63 - 67 9% -0  0 - 1 +7 -2 D C F +8 A+ C+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 107 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 81 30% -8  0 - 2 -11 +1 D C- A- -12 D- C C+
 Fri, Nov 14 311 East Texas A&M W 71 - 64 76% +2  1 - 2 -5 -1 B- C F -3 D+ B- B
 Mon, Nov 17 20 @Tennessee L 66 - 91 2% -12  1 - 3 -5 +5 C D+ B -11 C F D+
 Thu, Nov 20 187 Tarleton St. L 74 - 90 52% -3  1 - 4 -21 -6 D- F B -14 F A+ C
 Mon, Nov 24 156 Kennesaw St. L 84 - 89 OT 33% +1  1 - 5 -5 -1 C- C- D- -3 C C C
 Tue, Nov 25 231 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63 - 78 OT 38% +4  1 - 6 -16 -20 F D- F +6 B A B+
 Wed, Nov 26 332 Oral Roberts W 81 - 62 73% +10  2 - 6 +8 +14 A- A+ C- -3 B+ F C
 Wed, Dec 3 275 Texas St. W 77 - 72 69% +2  3 - 6 -4 +4 F A+ D+ -8 D+ A- D
 Sat, Dec 13 151 Arkansas St. W 77 - 76 43% -7  4 - 6 -1 +3 D+ C- A- -4 D A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 280 @Pepperdine L 62 - 84 48% -8  4 - 7 -26 -11 F C D -15 F D- B+
 Wed, Dec 31 73 @Tulsa L 48 - 97 9% -16  4 - 8 0 - 1 -38 -20 F F D -22 F C C
 Sat, Jan 3 103 Memphis L 70 - 76 27% +1  4 - 9 0 - 2 -4 +7 C- B C- -12 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 7 100 @Wichita St. W 66 - 64 12% +2  5 - 9 1 - 2 +10 +3 C+ D- C +8 A+ A+ D-
 Sun, Jan 11 172 Charlotte L 73 - 74 48% -3  5 - 10 1 - 3 -5 +2 D D+ D+ -7 F A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 343 @Texas San Antonio W 89 - 73 67% +11  6 - 10 2 - 3 +7 +25 A+ C+ C+ -16 F+ F D
 Wed, Jan 21 143 Temple L 65 - 69 40% -0  6 - 11 2 - 4 -6 -0 C- B D- -6 B F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 73 Tulsa L 81 - 87 20% -13  6 - 12 2 - 5 -1 +10 A B+ D- -12 B+ F C
 Wed, Jan 28 253 @East Carolina L 70 - 72 42%
 Sat, Jan 31 172 @Charlotte L 68 - 74 27%
 Wed, Feb 4 140 North Texas L 63 - 66 41%
 Sun, Feb 8 118 @UAB L 70 - 80 17%
 Wed, Feb 11 102 Florida Atlantic L 72 - 78 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 253 East Carolina W 73 - 69 64%
 Sun, Feb 22 174 @Tulane L 69 - 75 29%
 Wed, Feb 25 69 South Florida L 73 - 82 19%
 Sun, Mar 1 143 @Temple L 68 - 76 22%
 Wed, Mar 4 140 @North Texas L 60 - 69 21%
 Sun, Mar 8 343 Texas San Antonio W 79 - 69 83%
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 12 -4 -1 D+ C C- -3 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.3 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.6 1.4 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 6.0 4.4 0.3 11.8 9th
10th 0.1 3.0 10.2 9.2 1.3 0.0 23.9 10th
11th 0.1 3.9 12.3 10.4 2.1 0.1 29.0 11th
12th 0.5 4.9 9.7 6.8 1.4 0.0 23.4 12th
13th 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 13th
Total 0.8 5.3 13.8 22.2 23.2 18.0 10.1 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 14.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 1.5
9-9 4.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 4.5
8-10 10.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.1
7-11 18.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.0
6-12 23.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 23.2
5-13 22.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.2
4-14 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.8
3-15 5.3% 5.3
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.4 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%