UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#110
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#106
Pace72.8#92
Improvement-0.4#210

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#124
First Shot-2.6#250
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#13
Layup/Dunks+6.2#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.3#365
Freethrows+1.0#116
Improvement+0.0#182

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#106
First Shot-0.4#192
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#34
Layups/Dunks-1.6#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#207
Freethrows-0.8#228
Improvement-0.4#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 9.8% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.4
.500 or above 91.9% 95.1% 84.0%
.500 or above in Conference 77.5% 79.9% 71.4%
Conference Champion 10.7% 12.0% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.7% 1.6%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round8.8% 9.7% 6.5%
Second Round1.4% 1.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 71.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 411 - 10
Quad 49 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106-55 99%     1 - 0 +25.3 +4.2 +12.3
  Fri, Nov 7 29 @North Carolina St. L 70-94 11%     1 - 1 -6.9 -0.5 -4.9
  Tue, Nov 11 264 Alabama St. L 74-77 87%     1 - 2 -11.6 -9.4 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 14 95 High Point W 91-74 55%     2 - 2 +19.4 +6.7 +11.0
  Fri, Nov 21 176 South Alabama W 80-72 77%     3 - 2 +3.9 +12.7 -8.0
  Mon, Nov 24 130 Southern Illinois W 81-73 57%     4 - 2 +10.1 +9.2 +0.8
  Tue, Nov 25 218 UTEP W 75-59 75%     5 - 2 +12.6 +11.0 +3.4
  Mon, Dec 1 154 @Middle Tennessee L 61-76 52%     5 - 3 -11.8 -6.9 -5.8
  Fri, Dec 5 135 @Drake W 74-69 46%     6 - 3 +9.7 +3.9 +5.9
  Sun, Dec 14 147 Troy W 77-71 72%    
  Wed, Dec 17 319 Cleveland St. W 88-72 93%    
  Sun, Dec 21 227 UNC Asheville W 80-70 84%    
  Wed, Dec 31 98 Wichita St. W 73-71 56%    
  Tue, Jan 6 86 @South Florida L 77-83 29%    
  Wed, Jan 7 118 Florida Atlantic W 80-76 63%    
  Sun, Jan 11 287 @East Carolina W 78-70 76%    
  Wed, Jan 14 207 @Tulane W 78-74 63%    
  Sun, Jan 18 83 Tulsa L 77-78 49%    
  Thu, Jan 22 86 South Florida W 81-80 51%    
  Wed, Jan 28 286 @Texas San Antonio W 79-71 76%    
  Sat, Jan 31 146 @North Texas L 68-69 50%    
  Thu, Feb 5 76 Memphis L 76-77 47%    
  Sun, Feb 8 210 Rice W 78-68 82%    
  Wed, Feb 11 83 @Tulsa L 74-80 28%    
  Sun, Feb 15 207 Tulane W 81-71 81%    
  Wed, Feb 18 163 @Temple W 79-78 54%    
  Sun, Feb 22 76 @Memphis L 73-80 27%    
  Sun, Mar 1 146 North Texas W 71-65 70%    
  Wed, Mar 4 195 @Charlotte W 73-70 61%    
  Sun, Mar 8 287 East Carolina W 81-67 89%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.3 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 10.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.9 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 5.9 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 6.5 3.4 0.4 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.8 4.3 0.5 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.6 0.9 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.5 1.1 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 3.8 1.5 0.1 7.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.6 0.2 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.3 0.2 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.3 9.6 12.1 14.4 15.1 13.1 10.1 6.7 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.4% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 96.3% 1.6    1.5 0.2 0.0
15-3 81.5% 3.0    2.1 0.9 0.1
14-4 49.8% 3.3    1.3 1.4 0.5 0.0
13-5 18.1% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 5.9 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 44.0% 24.0% 20.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.3%
17-1 0.5% 27.9% 24.7% 3.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 4.3%
16-2 1.7% 24.9% 24.7% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.3%
15-3 3.7% 26.0% 25.8% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 2.8 0.2%
14-4 6.7% 20.2% 20.2% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.3
13-5 10.1% 16.3% 16.3% 12.0 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.5
12-6 13.1% 12.5% 12.5% 12.3 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 11.4
11-7 15.1% 8.4% 8.4% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 13.8
10-8 14.4% 5.0% 5.0% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 13.7
9-9 12.1% 3.0% 3.0% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.8
8-10 9.6% 1.8% 1.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.4
7-11 6.3% 1.0% 1.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
6-12 3.7% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
5-13 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 4.5 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 91.2 0.0%