South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.1 #69
Expected Predictive Rating +6.9 #79
Pace 77.7 #17
Improvement +1.4 #119

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #71 C A B- B+ A
Defense #83 B- B- B C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #23 1.09 #259 +2.7 #93
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #358 0.60 #348 -5.5 #362
Three Pointers 47% #64 0.97 #238 +2.0 #117
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #202 -0.9 #202
Freethrows 0.36 #25 74% #143 0.27 #31
Second Chance 38.9% #13 1.18 #38 0.46 #13
Turnovers 15.0% #91
Total Offense +4.7 #71

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #219 1.03 #45 +3.0 #85
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #66 0.73 #130 -1.2 #277
Three Pointers 38% #263 1.02 #187 +1.4 #125
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #77 +3.2 #77
Freethrows 0.34 #292 70% #63 0.23 #258
Second Chance 29.8% #144 0.93 #45 0.28 #84
Turnovers 18.7% #56
Total Defense +3.4 #83

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.3% #6 -1.1% #83
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.8% #279 -5.2% #80
Possession Length 15.3 #26 17.2 #163
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #46 0.14 #77
Improvement +0.3 #163 +1.1 #116

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.5% 27.9% 22.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.1% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 11.6
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.8% 98.1%
Conference Champion 40.0% 47.0% 22.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
First Round26.1% 27.5% 22.7%
Second Round5.4% 5.9% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 72.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 25 - 56 - 7
Quad 38 - 414 - 11
Quad 47 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 315 Florida A&M W 102 - 67 96% +15  1 - 0 +23 +12 C+ A- D+ +6 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 65 George Washington L 95 - 99 49% -1  1 - 1 +5 +7 F A+ B+ -2 D+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100 - 50 99% +28  2 - 1 +27 +18 C- A+ B +10 A+ D+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 156 @Kennesaw St. W 108 - 89 68% +9  3 - 1 +22 +22 C+ A+ A- -2 B F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 63 @Oklahoma St. L 95 - 103 36% -2  3 - 2 +4 +13 A+ C+ C- -8 F B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 66 - 78 41% -3  3 - 3 -2 -6 F C A+ +5 A B+ B-
 Thu, Nov 27 166 Western Kentucky W 97 - 91 OT 79% -5  4 - 3 +5 +2 D B- C+ +2 D+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 97 Colorado St. L 68 - 83 60% -8  4 - 4 -10 -4 F B- B -6 F A- A-
 Thu, Dec 4 40 Utah St. W 74 - 61 44% +15  5 - 4 +23 +4 B C D+ +19 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 10 162 College of Charleston W 81 - 75 85% +2  6 - 4 +3 +8 C- A- C -5 B+ D+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 16 @Alabama L 93 - 104 12% -8  6 - 5 +10 +17 C A+ F+ -5 B- D+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 263 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 94 - 69 93% +15  7 - 5 +17 +12 B- A+ B +4 B+ D+ A
 Sun, Jan 4 118 UAB L 106 - 109 2OT 78% +3  7 - 6 0 - 1 -3 +4 C B+ B -6 C A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 140 @North Texas W 74 - 70 65% +0  8 - 6 1 - 1 +8 +10 C+ A+ F+ -2 D C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 73 @Tulsa W 93 - 78 40% +8  9 - 6 2 - 1 +26 +17 B+ A+ B- +8 A A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 253 East Carolina W 82 - 71 93% +11  10 - 6 3 - 1 +3 +3 C- F A+ -1 C+ B- D-
 Sun, Jan 18 100 Wichita St. L 85 - 86 OT 72% -1  10 - 7 3 - 2 +1 +6 C C+ B- -4 C- A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 118 @UAB W 82 - 69 59% +8  11 - 7 4 - 2 +19 +6 C A+ F +12 A+ C- B-
 Sun, Jan 25 102 Florida Atlantic W 89 - 75 72% +2  12 - 7 5 - 2 +16 +16 D- A+ B+ -0 A+ C- D-
 Wed, Jan 28 174 @Tulane W 81 - 75 72%
 Sat, Jan 31 143 @Temple W 80 - 76 64%
 Wed, Feb 4 343 Texas San Antonio W 92 - 69 98%
 Sun, Feb 8 73 Tulsa W 85 - 82 62%
 Wed, Feb 11 100 @Wichita St. L 77 - 78 50%
 Sun, Feb 15 102 @Florida Atlantic W 83 - 82 51%
 Thu, Feb 19 103 Memphis W 81 - 75 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 238 @Rice W 82 - 73 81%
 Sun, Mar 1 174 Tulane W 84 - 72 87%
 Thu, Mar 5 103 @Memphis W 78 - 77 51%
 Sun, Mar 8 172 Charlotte W 83 - 71 87%
Totals 20 - 10 13 - 5 +8 +5 C A B- +3 B- B- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 9.5 16.5 10.4 2.7 40.0 1st
2nd 0.3 6.8 12.4 3.5 0.2 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.7 9.2 2.6 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.5 5.7 3.2 0.1 9.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 3.6 0.3 6.0 5th
6th 0.4 2.3 0.7 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.8 13.1 20.4 24.6 20.1 10.6 2.7 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.7    2.7
15-3 98.6% 10.4    9.1 1.3 0.0
14-4 82.2% 16.5    8.9 6.7 0.9 0.0
13-5 38.6% 9.5    1.6 4.1 2.9 0.8 0.1
12-6 4.2% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.0% 40.0 22.4 12.2 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.7% 47.2% 36.5% 10.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.4 16.8%
15-3 10.6% 38.4% 36.3% 2.1% 11.1 0.0 0.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 6.5 3.3%
14-4 20.1% 32.9% 32.5% 0.4% 11.3 0.1 4.4 2.2 0.0 13.5 0.6%
13-5 24.6% 28.2% 28.2% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 3.4 3.5 0.0 17.7 0.1%
12-6 20.4% 22.0% 22.0% 11.7 0.0 1.4 2.9 0.1 15.9
11-7 13.1% 16.9% 16.9% 11.9 0.3 1.7 0.1 10.9
10-8 5.8% 11.5% 11.5% 12.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 5.2
9-9 2.0% 7.5% 7.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
8-10 0.6% 5.8% 5.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.5% 25.9% 0.6% 11.4 73.5 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 10.0 0.5 1.0 8.0 24.1 22.6 43.2 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 20.5% 10.8 3.6 17.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 17.3% 10.9 0.8 0.8 15.8