Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#12
Expected Predictive Rating+23.0#9
Pace66.4#264
Improvement-0.1#202

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#45
First Shot+3.3#91
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#20
Layup/Dunks+1.2#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#284
Freethrows+2.4#58
Improvement-0.2#200

Defense
Total Defense+11.0#4
First Shot+6.5#25
After Offensive Rebounds+4.5#2
Layups/Dunks+9.6#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#303
Freethrows+1.4#91
Improvement+0.1#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.2%
#1 Seed 8.3% 8.4% 2.4%
Top 2 Seed 24.6% 24.9% 10.4%
Top 4 Seed 66.7% 67.2% 41.6%
Top 6 Seed 89.6% 89.9% 76.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% 99.2% 96.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.1% 99.1% 96.7%
Average Seed 3.9 3.9 5.0
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 96.3% 92.0%
Conference Champion 8.8% 8.9% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.7%
First Round98.9% 99.0% 96.3%
Second Round86.4% 86.6% 76.2%
Sweet Sixteen52.0% 52.3% 36.8%
Elite Eight24.1% 24.3% 13.6%
Final Four10.5% 10.6% 4.4%
Championship Game4.5% 4.5% 1.9%
National Champion1.8% 1.8% 1.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 7
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 35 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 180 Colgate W 80-69 97%     1 - 0 +6.6 +5.1 +1.6
  Sat, Nov 8 20 Arkansas W 69-66 70%     2 - 0 +15.6 +3.0 +12.7
  Thu, Nov 13 188 San Jose St. W 79-60 97%     3 - 0 +14.3 +6.8 +8.5
  Tue, Nov 18 21 Kentucky W 83-66 59%     4 - 0 +32.6 +16.9 +15.4
  Fri, Nov 21 298 Detroit Mercy W 84-56 99%     5 - 0 +17.5 +7.8 +10.3
  Tue, Nov 25 287 East Carolina W 89-56 98%     6 - 0 +26.1 +12.1 +13.0
  Thu, Nov 27 22 North Carolina W 74-58 61%     7 - 0 +31.2 +20.0 +13.6
  Tue, Dec 2 23 Iowa W 71-52 71%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +31.1 +17.7 +17.2
  Sat, Dec 6 2 Duke L 60-66 43%     8 - 1 +13.6 +2.7 +10.4
  Sat, Dec 13 104 @Penn St. W 76-72 84%     9 - 1 2 - 0 +11.2 +4.9 +6.4
  Tue, Dec 16 167 Toledo W 85-63 98%    
  Sat, Dec 20 149 Oakland W 86-69 95%    
  Mon, Dec 29 161 Cornell W 90-69 98%    
  Fri, Jan 2 26 @Nebraska W 72-71 51%    
  Mon, Jan 5 34 USC W 79-71 77%    
  Thu, Jan 8 58 Northwestern W 77-65 86%    
  Tue, Jan 13 27 Indiana W 73-67 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 47 @Washington W 73-69 64%    
  Tue, Jan 20 66 @Oregon W 74-67 72%    
  Sat, Jan 24 94 Maryland W 79-64 92%    
  Tue, Jan 27 133 @Rutgers W 75-62 88%    
  Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan L 70-76 30%    
  Wed, Feb 4 103 @Minnesota W 70-60 83%    
  Sat, Feb 7 14 Illinois W 75-72 61%    
  Fri, Feb 13 40 @Wisconsin W 75-72 61%    
  Tue, Feb 17 30 UCLA W 72-65 74%    
  Sun, Feb 22 31 Ohio St. W 76-69 74%    
  Thu, Feb 26 7 @Purdue L 67-73 31%    
  Sun, Mar 1 27 @Indiana W 71-70 50%    
  Thu, Mar 5 133 Rutgers W 78-59 96%    
  Sun, Mar 8 1 @Michigan L 67-79 14%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.0 2.7 0.9 0.1 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.7 6.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 6.9 7.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 19.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.4 6.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.6 1.9 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.9 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.8 7.9 12.1 15.4 17.2 15.9 11.6 6.9 3.4 0.9 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.3% 0.9    0.8 0.1
18-2 79.2% 2.7    1.7 1.0 0.0
17-3 43.7% 3.0    1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0
16-4 14.2% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 2.3% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.2 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.4% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 1.6 1.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.9% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 1.9 2.3 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.6% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 2.4 2.0 4.6 3.9 1.1 0.1 100.0%
15-5 15.9% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 2.9 1.1 4.2 6.4 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 17.2% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 3.5 0.4 2.0 6.1 5.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-7 15.4% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 4.2 0.1 0.6 3.1 5.6 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 12.1% 99.9% 2.6% 97.3% 5.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 4.1 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 7.9% 99.8% 1.5% 98.4% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-10 4.8% 99.0% 0.7% 98.3% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
9-11 2.3% 92.6% 0.6% 92.0% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 92.5%
8-12 1.0% 74.0% 0.3% 73.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 73.9%
7-13 0.3% 33.3% 33.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 33.3%
6-14 0.1% 5.9% 5.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 5.9%
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.1% 7.7% 91.4% 3.9 8.3 16.3 22.2 19.8 14.2 8.8 4.8 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.9 99.1%