USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.3 #48
Expected Predictive Rating +15.0 #34
Pace 73.3 #66
Improvement -2.4 #294

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #70 B- C+ C A+ C
Defense #39 B B+ C+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #85 1.30 #51 +5.0 #34
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #116 0.81 #106 +1.7 #87
Three Pointers 35% #314 1.05 #134 -2.8 #282
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #69 +3.9 #69
Freethrows 0.43 #1 73% #180 0.31 #1
Second Chance 34.6% #71 1.04 #188 0.36 #95
Turnovers 16.1% #156
Total Offense +4.8 #70

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #226 1.03 #46 +3.1 #79
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #127 0.86 #324 -1.7 #309
Three Pointers 41% #191 0.90 #43 +2.5 #90
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #64 +3.9 #64
Freethrows 0.29 #161 75% #295 0.22 #183
Second Chance 28.1% #90 0.86 #13 0.24 #28
Turnovers 17.3% #120
Total Defense +6.4 #39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #203 -0.5% #120
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.9% #64 -7.2% #56
Possession Length 16.0 #60 18.0 #290
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #141 0.15 #119
Improvement -4.4 #354 +2.0 #67

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.8% 9.8% 2.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.3% 80.5% 55.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.2% 80.4% 55.8%
Average Seed 9.1 8.5 9.3
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 40.2% 63.8% 33.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.5% 9.7% 14.6%
First Round54.1% 75.4% 48.0%
Second Round22.8% 33.9% 19.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 7.2% 3.5%
Elite Eight1.2% 2.0% 1.0%
Final Four0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 8
Quad 26 - 311 - 11
Quad 35 - 116 - 12
Quad 44 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 288 Cal Poly W 94 - 64 97% +12  1 - 0 +20 +1 C+ D+ D+ +14 B+ B+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 327 Manhattan W 114 - 83 98% +16  2 - 0 +18 +16 D+ A+ C+ -3 C- A- C-
 Fri, Nov 14 89 Illinois St. W 87 - 67 69% +12  3 - 0 +26 +19 A A- A+ +7 A+ C C+
 Thu, Nov 20 115 Troy W 107 - 106 3OT 84% +2  4 - 0 +1 +1 C- F A- +0 B+ F+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 59 Boise St. W 70 - 67 57% +2  5 - 0 +12 +3 B C- D +10 A B- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 57 Seton Hall W 83 - 81 56% -2  6 - 0 +12 +21 A+ A+ D+ -9 F A+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 80 Arizona St. W 88 - 75 65% +4  7 - 0 +20 +22 A+ A+ C -1 C A+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 72 @Oregon W 82 - 77 52% -1  8 - 0 1 - 0 +16 +16 A+ A- F -0 D B- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 47 Washington L 76 - 84 61% +8  8 - 1 1 - 1 +0 +4 D+ C A -3 B D B
 Tue, Dec 9 212 @San Diego W 94 - 81 85% +5  9 - 1 +13 +11 A+ C F +1 B+ C- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 138 Washington St. W 68 - 61 88% +6  10 - 1 +5 -8 F D- D+ +14 A- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 343 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 70 98% +10  11 - 1 +12 +13 A+ B- C -2 B F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 66 - 96 7% -16  11 - 2 1 - 2 -2 -3 C C F +5 B+ A+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 6 @Michigan St. L 51 - 80 13% -14  11 - 3 1 - 3 -5 -8 D- C+ F +3 D- A+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 76 @Minnesota W 70 - 69 OT 53% +3  12 - 3 2 - 3 +12 +8 A D- F +4 B- C+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 105 Maryland W 88 - 71 82% +4  13 - 3 3 - 3 +18 +19 B+ C+ A+ -0 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 8 Purdue L 64 - 69 28% +2  13 - 4 3 - 4 +12 -3 D A+ D+ +15 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 61 Northwestern L 68 - 74 69% -1  13 - 5 3 - 5 -0 -0 D C- A+ +0 A A D-
 Sun, Jan 25 38 @Wisconsin W 73 - 71 31% +1  14 - 5 4 - 5 +18 +13 C- B A+ +5 A+ D+ D
 Wed, Jan 28 23 @Iowa L 67 - 75 22%
 Sat, Jan 31 120 Rutgers W 80 - 69 86%
 Tue, Feb 3 31 Indiana L 77 - 78 50%
 Sun, Feb 8 112 @Penn St. W 81 - 76 67%
 Wed, Feb 11 35 @Ohio St. L 74 - 80 30%
 Wed, Feb 18 5 Illinois L 75 - 82 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 72 Oregon W 78 - 71 72%
 Tue, Feb 24 37 @UCLA L 71 - 76 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 13 Nebraska L 73 - 78 32%
 Wed, Mar 4 47 @Washington L 75 - 78 38%
 Sat, Mar 7 37 UCLA W 74 - 73 53%
Totals 19 - 11 9 - 11 +11 +5 B- C+ C +6 B B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 1.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.5 0.9 0.1 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.2 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.2 3.8 4.9 0.6 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 8.0 2.0 0.1 12.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 8.1 5.6 0.3 15.2 10th
11th 1.0 6.9 8.7 1.4 0.0 18.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 6.3 9.1 2.9 0.1 19.0 12th
13th 0.1 2.7 4.5 1.7 0.1 9.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.1 1.2 5.0 12.3 19.0 22.3 19.6 12.3 5.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 100.0% 2.5% 97.5% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.9% 100.0% 1.1% 98.9% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 5.9% 99.3% 0.8% 98.5% 7.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 99.3%
11-9 12.3% 96.1% 0.6% 95.6% 8.2 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.5 96.1%
10-10 19.6% 89.6% 0.2% 89.4% 9.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 6.4 5.2 1.1 2.0 89.6%
9-11 22.3% 68.9% 0.2% 68.7% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 6.5 5.2 0.0 6.9 68.8%
8-12 19.0% 36.8% 0.1% 36.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.7 0.1 12.0 36.7%
7-13 12.3% 10.9% 0.0% 10.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.1 10.9 10.9%
6-14 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 4.9 0.5%
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 61.3% 0.3% 61.1% 9.1 38.7 61.2%