Nebraska
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +19.0 #13
Expected Predictive Rating +30.2 #2
Pace 68.4 #193
Improvement +4.7 #19

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #23 A C- A- D+ B
Defense #9 B+ A B+ A A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #246 1.48 #1 +4.5 #43
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #343 0.68 #303 -3.9 #345
Three Pointers 53% #15 1.13 #45 +8.8 #6
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #7 +9.4 #7
Freethrows 0.26 #313 77% #47 0.20 #261
Second Chance 28.3% #249 1.06 #150 0.30 #213
Turnovers 12.7% #14
Total Offense +9.3 #23

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% #364 1.20 #238 +9.4 #2
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #27 0.68 #60 -1.7 #305
Three Pointers 51% #9 0.89 #36 -1.7 #268
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #31 +6.0 #32
Freethrows 0.21 #7 70% #59 0.14 #7
Second Chance 24.4% #18 0.85 #9 0.21 #5
Turnovers 20.1% #22
Total Defense +9.8 #9

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #53 -4.2% #5
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.9% #9 -7.9% #48
Possession Length 16.3 #80 19.0 #354
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #257 0.07 #3
Improvement +0.6 #145 +4.1 #12

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.4% 4.6% 1.9%
#1 Seed 23.8% 29.8% 16.6%
Top 2 Seed 63.1% 73.0% 51.1%
Top 4 Seed 97.8% 99.2% 96.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.3 2.0 2.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 36.8% 52.6% 17.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round96.8% 97.8% 95.7%
Sweet Sixteen64.7% 66.7% 62.3%
Elite Eight33.0% 35.5% 30.1%
Final Four15.0% 16.5% 13.2%
Championship Game6.5% 7.3% 5.5%
National Champion2.8% 3.2% 2.2%

Next Game: Illinois (Home) - 55.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 46 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 110 - 4
Quad 27 - 018 - 5
Quad 34 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 329 West Georgia W 86 - 53 99% +11  1 - 0 +20 +5 D A B- +14 A+ B- C
 Sat, Nov 8 181 Florida International W 96 - 66 98% +21  2 - 0 +26 +12 A+ C- C+ +10 A B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69 - 50 99% +15  3 - 0 +5 -5 D- D+ A+ +11 A A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 52 Oklahoma W 105 - 99 80% -3  4 - 0 +16 +32 A+ F A+ -16 F+ C+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 43 New Mexico W 84 - 72 76% +11  5 - 0 +24 +7 A+ F+ D+ +15 B+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 88 Kansas St. W 86 - 85 88% +4  6 - 0 +7 +10 A+ D+ B -3 B- C- C+
 Tue, Nov 25 124 Winthrop W 80 - 73 96% +2  7 - 0 +6 +7 C D- A+ -1 D A- B-
 Sat, Nov 29 307 South Carolina Upstate W 72 - 63 99% +2  8 - 0 -2 -6 C- D F+ +3 C+ B+ D+
 Sun, Dec 7 53 Creighton W 71 - 50 87% +14  9 - 0 +28 +6 B C- B +24 A+ A- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 38 Wisconsin W 90 - 60 80% +14  10 - 0 1 - 0 +40 +21 A+ B+ C+ +20 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 5 @Illinois W 83 - 80 32% +6  11 - 0 2 - 0 +27 +28 A+ B B+ -1 B- D- C-
 Sun, Dec 21 290 North Dakota W 78 - 55 99% +3  12 - 0 +13 +2 D F A+ +12 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Dec 30 319 New Hampshire W 86 - 55 99% +10  13 - 0 +18 +10 D+ A+ C+ +9 B B+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 6 Michigan St. W 58 - 56 56% +1  14 - 0 3 - 0 +20 +2 C C+ A+ +18 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 35 @Ohio St. W 72 - 69 58% +5  15 - 0 4 - 0 +20 +7 B+ F+ C- +13 B A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 31 @Indiana W 83 - 77 56% -1  16 - 0 5 - 0 +24 +21 A+ C+ A+ +3 B+ D- A+
 Tue, Jan 13 72 Oregon W 90 - 55 90% +14  17 - 0 6 - 0 +40 +28 A+ B+ A+ +15 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 61 @Northwestern W 77 - 58 75% +7  18 - 0 7 - 0 +31 +22 A+ B A+ +12 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 47 Washington W 76 - 66 84% +10  19 - 0 8 - 0 +18 +14 A+ D- A- +6 B A D+
 Sat, Jan 24 76 @Minnesota W 76 - 57 79% +4  20 - 0 9 - 0 +30 +15 A+ D- A+ +16 B- A+ A-
 Tue, Jan 27 1 @Michigan L 72 - 75 21% +4  20 - 1 9 - 1 +25 +12 A+ D- B +12 A C A+
 Sun, Feb 1 5 Illinois W 77 - 76 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 120 @Rutgers W 79 - 66 89%
 Tue, Feb 10 8 Purdue W 75 - 73 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 61 Northwestern W 79 - 66 89%
 Tue, Feb 17 23 @Iowa L 69 - 70 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 112 Penn St. W 86 - 67 96%
 Wed, Feb 25 105 Maryland W 83 - 65 95%
 Sat, Feb 28 48 @USC W 78 - 73 68%
 Tue, Mar 3 37 @UCLA W 73 - 70 60%
 Sun, Mar 8 23 Iowa W 73 - 67 70%
Totals 27 - 4 16 - 4 +19 +9 A C- A- +10 B+ A B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.7 14.2 14.1 4.6 36.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.8 13.5 10.3 1.6 28.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 8.7 7.8 0.8 18.8 3rd
4th 0.4 4.0 5.4 0.7 10.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.4 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 8.2 17.5 25.7 25.2 15.7 4.6 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 4.6    4.2 0.4
18-2 90.1% 14.1    9.2 4.7 0.3
17-3 56.3% 14.2    4.0 7.0 2.9 0.3
16-4 14.4% 3.7    0.2 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.0
15-5 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.8% 36.8 17.6 13.3 4.9 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 4.6% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 1.4 2.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 15.7% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 1.6 7.3 7.1 1.2 0.1 100.0%
17-3 25.2% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 1.9 7.7 12.5 4.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 25.7% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 2.3 4.5 11.3 8.1 1.8 0.1 100.0%
15-5 17.5% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 2.8 1.4 5.3 7.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.2% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 3.3 0.2 1.3 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.1 100.0%
13-7 2.5% 100.0% 2.6% 97.4% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.5% 100.0% 1.9% 98.1% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 2.3 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.2 75.8 24.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 100.0% 1.4 63.0 35.5 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 100.0% 1.5 56.7 39.9 3.4