Minnesota
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.6 #76
Expected Predictive Rating +6.2 #85
Pace 60.5 #359
Improvement +4.5 #22

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #93 B- C C+ B- B-
Defense #66 B- A- C+ B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #159 1.31 #39 +3.4 #73
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #274 0.72 #232 -2.0 #279
Three Pointers 45% #108 0.99 #216 +1.3 #136
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #99 +2.7 #99
Freethrows 0.35 #49 70% #268 0.24 #98
Second Chance 31.5% #156 1.01 #229 0.32 #176
Turnovers 15.7% #139
Total Offense +3.4 #93

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #313 1.11 #118 +3.8 #59
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #46 0.71 #107 -1.5 #296
Three Pointers 41% #192 0.96 #107 +1.2 #137
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #68 +3.5 #71
Freethrows 0.26 #63 70% #77 0.18 #53
Second Chance 27.7% #82 0.78 #4 0.22 #9
Turnovers 17.8% #88
Total Defense +4.2 #66

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #101 -2.1% #35
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.1% #109 -4.9% #85
Possession Length 18.0 #242 18.9 #346
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #132 0.09 #10
Improvement +2.6 #57 +1.9 #76

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 4.7% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 4.7% 0.7%
Average Seed 10.5 10.4 10.6
.500 or above 22.1% 44.3% 16.4%
.500 or above in Conference 7.8% 20.2% 4.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four1.0% 2.9% 0.6%
First Round1.0% 3.3% 0.4%
Second Round0.3% 1.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 20.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 23 - 66 - 16
Quad 32 - 18 - 18
Quad 47 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 87 - 60 99% +25  1 - 0 +6 +1 B+ D F +4 B+ A C-
 Sat, Nov 8 350 Alcorn St. W 95 - 50 97% +30  2 - 0 +30 +16 D- A+ C +14 A+ C+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 54 @Missouri L 60 - 83 30% -3  2 - 1 -10 -0 C+ D+ C- -13 F B- D-
 Sat, Nov 15 243 Green Bay W 72 - 65 OT 91% +1  3 - 1 -1 -9 D+ F B +9 A- B+ A-
 Tue, Nov 18 358 Chicago St. W 66 - 54 98% +6  4 - 1 -6 -7 F+ F B- +3 B- C+ B
 Sat, Nov 22 98 San Francisco L 65 - 77 58% -6  4 - 2 -7 +2 A C- F -10 D+ B- C+
 Thu, Nov 27 84 Stanford L 68 - 72 53% -1  4 - 3 +3 +5 A+ A D- -3 A+ F D
 Fri, Nov 28 50 Santa Clara L 75 - 86 39% -18  4 - 4 -0 +11 C A+ A -12 F A- C-
 Wed, Dec 3 31 Indiana W 73 - 64 35% +1  5 - 4 1 - 0 +21 +8 B A+ F +13 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 10 8 @Purdue L 57 - 85 8% -15  5 - 5 1 - 1 -5 -3 D- D- B+ -3 C+ D B-
 Sun, Dec 14 308 Texas Southern W 89 - 53 95% +20  6 - 5 +24 +11 A+ F+ C- +14 A A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 206 Campbell W 78 - 50 89% +18  7 - 5 +22 +13 A- A+ C- +14 A- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 60 - 43 97% +7  8 - 5 +2 -11 F C F +16 A A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 61 @Northwestern W 84 - 78 33% -2  9 - 5 2 - 1 +18 +21 A+ B C -3 C- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 23 Iowa W 70 - 67 29% +6  10 - 5 3 - 1 +16 +6 B+ F A+ +10 A+ A+ A
 Fri, Jan 9 48 USC L 69 - 70 OT 47% -3  10 - 6 3 - 2 +7 +6 B- B- C+ +1 C- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 38 Wisconsin L 75 - 78 39% +1  10 - 7 3 - 3 +7 +12 A+ F+ A+ -5 D+ A C-
 Sat, Jan 17 5 @Illinois L 67 - 77 7% -2  10 - 8 3 - 4 +14 +12 B A+ C+ +1 B B+ B
 Tue, Jan 20 35 @Ohio St. L 74 - 82 OT 19% -2  10 - 9 3 - 5 +9 +7 C+ D+ A- +2 B D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 13 Nebraska L 57 - 76 21% -4  10 - 10 3 - 6 -3 -3 B F+ C -1 C A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 38 @Wisconsin L 68 - 77 20%
 Sun, Feb 1 112 @Penn St. W 72 - 71 54%
 Wed, Feb 4 6 Michigan St. L 60 - 70 17%
 Sun, Feb 8 105 Maryland W 72 - 66 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 47 @Washington L 66 - 73 27%
 Tue, Feb 17 72 @Oregon L 67 - 70 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 120 Rutgers W 72 - 64 76%
 Tue, Feb 24 1 @Michigan L 62 - 82 3%
 Sat, Feb 28 37 UCLA L 66 - 69 40%
 Wed, Mar 4 31 @Indiana L 65 - 75 17%
 Sat, Mar 7 61 Northwestern W 69 - 67 55%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8 +3 B- C C+ +4 B- A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.7 1.7 0.1 6.3 10th
11th 1.0 5.2 5.2 0.5 0.0 11.9 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 7.9 10.1 2.3 0.0 21.4 12th
13th 0.0 1.3 10.1 13.9 4.8 0.2 0.0 30.4 13th
14th 0.2 4.4 7.2 1.9 0.0 13.7 14th
15th 0.9 3.6 1.4 0.1 5.9 15th
16th 0.1 1.5 0.9 0.1 2.6 16th
17th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 17th
18th 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.4 3.1 10.4 19.9 24.7 21.0 12.6 5.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 59.0% 59.0% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 59.0%
11-9 1.7% 32.3% 32.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 32.3%
10-10 5.7% 11.1% 0.1% 11.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 5.1 11.0%
9-11 12.6% 1.0% 1.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.5 1.0%
8-12 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 21.0 0.0%
7-13 24.7% 24.7
6-14 19.9% 19.9
5-15 10.4% 10.4
4-16 3.1% 3.1
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 10.5 98.5 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%