Oregon
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.7 #72
Expected Predictive Rating +4.1 #101
Pace 66.5 #249
Improvement +0.8 #146

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #82 C B+ C- B- C+
Defense #78 B- B- C B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #175 1.11 #246 -0.9 #217
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #275 0.84 #67 -1.0 #234
Three Pointers 45% #92 1.04 #146 +2.7 #95
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #155 +0.8 #155
Freethrows 0.34 #71 71% #226 0.24 #104
Second Chance 37.7% #21 1.12 #80 0.42 #30
Turnovers 17.0% #221
Total Offense +4.1 #82

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 1.00 #23 +6.5 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #48 0.87 #328 -3.4 #356
Three Pointers 42% #139 1.01 #170 -0.5 #197
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #98 +2.5 #98
Freethrows 0.26 #50 75% #321 0.19 #79
Second Chance 29.6% #140 0.93 #41 0.27 #76
Turnovers 16.6% #174
Total Defense +3.6 #78

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #105 -2.3% #28
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.3% #173 -2.7% #130
Possession Length 17.5 #188 18.1 #291
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #198 0.17 #188
Improvement +0.5 #154 +0.2 #177

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.6 10.7 10.5
.500 or above 1.9% 4.1% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 5.7% 19.7%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Home) - 39.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 80 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 13
Quad 23 - 64 - 19
Quad 33 - 17 - 19
Quad 45 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 99 Hawaii W 60 - 59 70% +3  1 - 0 +3 -12 F+ A- F +15 A+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 238 Rice W 67 - 63 91% +0  2 - 0 -3 -7 F B- C- +4 B B- B+
 Wed, Nov 12 171 South Dakota St. W 83 - 69 86% +5  3 - 0 +10 +7 B- B- B +3 B- B C-
 Mon, Nov 17 194 Oregon St. W 87 - 75 88% +7  4 - 0 +7 +13 B+ A- C -6 C C- C
 Mon, Nov 24 25 Auburn L 73 - 84 23% -3  4 - 1 +4 +5 D A+ F -1 A- C F
 Tue, Nov 25 46 San Diego St. L 80 - 97 36% -10  4 - 2 -6 +14 A C B -20 F D- A
 Thu, Nov 27 53 Creighton L 66 - 76 41% -6  4 - 3 +0 -2 F+ B B- +1 A- A+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 48 USC L 77 - 82 48% +1  4 - 4 0 - 1 +3 +11 A A D- -8 D C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 37 @UCLA L 63 - 74 20% -8  4 - 5 0 - 2 +5 +7 F+ A+ B- -4 C+ C- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 182 UC Davis W 104 - 62 87% +30  5 - 5 +37 +25 A A+ C+ +11 A+ A- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 204 Portland W 94 - 69 89% +11  6 - 5 +19 +9 A+ C+ D +8 A- B- B-
 Sun, Dec 21 11 Gonzaga L 82 - 91 13% -4  6 - 6 +11 +21 A A+ A -11 C+ A- F
 Sun, Dec 28 250 Nebraska Omaha W 80 - 57 92% +11  7 - 6 +15 +11 B C B- +6 A C D
 Fri, Jan 2 105 @Maryland W 64 - 54 51% +5  8 - 6 1 - 2 +17 +0 C+ C- F +18 A+ A+ C-
 Mon, Jan 5 120 @Rutgers L 85 - 88 OT 57% +1  8 - 7 1 - 3 +3 +10 C+ A+ F -7 C- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 35 Ohio St. L 62 - 72 38% -8  8 - 8 1 - 4 +1 -1 F B- A+ +0 A D- A
 Tue, Jan 13 13 @Nebraska L 55 - 90 10% -14  8 - 9 1 - 5 -13 -2 B- C- F -15 D- D D-
 Sat, Jan 17 1 Michigan L 71 - 81 10% -6  8 - 10 1 - 6 +12 +13 C A+ B- -1 C- A A+
 Tue, Jan 20 6 Michigan St. L 52 - 68 18% -4  8 - 11 1 - 7 +2 +0 C B+ C+ -1 F A B+
 Sun, Jan 25 47 @Washington L 57 - 72 26% -12  8 - 12 1 - 8 -1 -4 D F C +2 D+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 37 UCLA L 69 - 72 40%
 Sun, Feb 1 23 Iowa L 66 - 72 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 8 @Purdue L 65 - 81 7%
 Mon, Feb 9 31 @Indiana L 70 - 80 18%
 Sat, Feb 14 112 Penn St. W 79 - 72 75%
 Tue, Feb 17 76 Minnesota W 70 - 67 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 48 @USC L 71 - 78 28%
 Wed, Feb 25 38 Wisconsin L 76 - 79 40%
 Sat, Feb 28 61 @Northwestern L 70 - 74 34%
 Tue, Mar 3 5 @Illinois L 68 - 84 6%
 Sat, Mar 7 47 Washington L 73 - 74 47%
Totals 12 - 19 5 - 15 +8 +4 C B+ C- +4 B- B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.4 1.1 0.4 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.8 0.1 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 5.7 5.0 0.9 0.0 12.4 13th
14th 0.0 1.4 9.2 9.7 2.0 0.0 22.4 14th
15th 0.6 7.9 10.3 2.3 0.1 21.2 15th
16th 0.4 5.2 10.4 3.3 0.2 19.4 16th
17th 0.1 2.3 6.2 2.4 0.1 11.1 17th
18th 0.8 2.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.3 18th
Total 0.9 5.3 13.5 22.4 23.8 18.4 10.2 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.2% 31.8% 31.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 31.8%
9-11 1.3% 4.4% 0.4% 4.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.0%
8-12 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 3.9 0.3%
7-13 10.2% 10.2
6-14 18.4% 18.4
5-15 23.8% 23.8
4-16 22.4% 22.4
3-17 13.5% 13.5
2-18 5.3% 5.3
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 10.6 99.8 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%