Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.5 #112
Expected Predictive Rating +2.0 #133
Pace 69.0 #172
Improvement -1.8 #271

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #81 B- B- B B- C+
Defense #189 D+ D+ B B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #87 1.19 #135 +2.7 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #233 0.90 #28 +0.3 #163
Three Pointers 40% #197 1.03 #173 -0.2 #190
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #97 +2.8 #97
Freethrows 0.32 #124 74% #126 0.24 #113
Second Chance 30.7% #174 1.22 #22 0.37 #72
Turnovers 14.1% #46
Total Offense +4.1 #81

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #250 1.17 #192 +1.1 #134
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #252 0.78 #224 +0.7 #143
Three Pointers 46% #56 1.12 #309 -4.8 #340
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #274 -2.9 #275
Freethrows 0.23 #18 75% #296 0.17 #25
Second Chance 28.3% #96 1.28 #360 0.36 #290
Turnovers 18.7% #61
Total Defense -0.6 #189

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #104 0.3% #194
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.2% #106 5.4% #277
Possession Length 16.5 #96 18.7 #338
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #56 0.15 #95
Improvement -1.2 #242 -0.6 #223

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 1.4% 4.7% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 61.8% 36.1% 68.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 20.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 80 - 8
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 11
Quad 21 - 72 - 18
Quad 32 - 14 - 19
Quad 48 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 271 Fairfield W 76 - 68 88% -2  1 - 0 -1 -2 D+ C- A +1 C A F
 Sat, Nov 8 333 @New Haven W 87 - 43 86% +18  2 - 0 +36 +24 C A+ A+ +18 A- C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 183 Navy W 80 - 71 78% +6  3 - 0 +4 +9 C A+ B+ -4 D+ D A+
 Sat, Nov 15 200 La Salle W 83 - 69 72% +11  4 - 0 +11 +17 A+ C- A+ -5 D F A
 Wed, Nov 19 179 Harvard W 84 - 80 77% +2  5 - 0 -0 +17 B+ B+ A+ -17 F F B
 Sat, Nov 22 67 Providence L 65 - 77 32% -3  5 - 1 -4 -8 F C C +5 A+ D+ F+
 Tue, Nov 25 278 Boston University W 96 - 87 89% +12  6 - 1 -1 +25 A- A A+ -24 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 29 277 Sacred Heart W 90 - 59 89% +21  7 - 1 +21 +1 C+ A+ F +17 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 206 Campbell W 87 - 76 81% +5  8 - 1 +5 +6 B+ F A+ -1 D F A
 Tue, Dec 9 31 @Indiana L 72 - 113 10% -28  8 - 2 0 - 1 -23 +3 C+ B+ D -24 F F C
 Sat, Dec 13 6 Michigan St. L 72 - 76 10% -1  8 - 3 0 - 2 +14 +12 B A- A +2 C C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 93 Pittsburgh L 46 - 80 41% -16  8 - 4 -28 -22 F F D -9 F B- C-
 Mon, Dec 29 342 NC Central W 90 - 67 95% +8  9 - 4 +8 +12 A+ F C+ -3 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 5 Illinois L 65 - 73 10% -10  9 - 5 0 - 3 +10 +0 D B+ B +9 A+ A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 72 - 74 6% -5  9 - 6 0 - 4 +20 +9 D- A+ A +10 A A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 8 @Purdue L 85 - 93 4% -5  9 - 7 0 - 5 +15 +25 A+ A+ B- -10 C- D+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 37 UCLA L 60 - 71 25% -3  9 - 8 0 - 6 -1 +2 B- F C -4 A+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 18 105 @Maryland L 73 - 96 35% -15  9 - 9 0 - 7 -16 +9 A F A+ -27 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 38 Wisconsin L 71 - 98 26% -20  9 - 10 0 - 8 -17 +0 D- B- A+ -17 F A- D
 Mon, Jan 26 35 @Ohio St. L 78 - 84 11% -8  9 - 11 0 - 9 +11 +13 A A+ F -2 D A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 61 @Northwestern L 71 - 80 20%
 Sun, Feb 1 76 Minnesota L 71 - 72 46%
 Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 69 - 93 1%
 Sun, Feb 8 48 USC L 76 - 81 33%
 Wed, Feb 11 47 @Washington L 72 - 83 15%
 Sat, Feb 14 72 @Oregon L 72 - 79 25%
 Wed, Feb 18 120 Rutgers W 77 - 73 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 13 @Nebraska L 67 - 86 4%
 Sat, Feb 28 23 Iowa L 67 - 77 18%
 Wed, Mar 4 35 Ohio St. L 75 - 82 24%
 Sun, Mar 8 120 @Rutgers L 74 - 76 41%
Totals 12 - 19 3 - 17 +3 +4 B- B- B -1 D+ D+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 1.0 3.5 1.7 0.2 6.4 14th
15th 0.5 5.4 4.1 0.4 0.0 10.4 15th
16th 0.3 5.1 8.2 1.3 0.0 14.9 16th
17th 0.6 6.4 13.3 4.1 0.1 24.4 17th
18th 3.8 13.1 17.1 6.5 0.4 40.8 18th
Total 3.8 13.7 23.7 25.3 19.1 9.5 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 1.0% 1.0
6-14 3.7% 3.7
5-15 9.5% 9.5
4-16 19.1% 19.1
3-17 25.3% 25.3
2-18 23.7% 23.7
1-19 13.7% 13.7
0-20 3.8% 3.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.8%