Wisconsin
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#40
Expected Predictive Rating+11.1#55
Pace74.3#57
Improvement-1.9#307

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#49
First Shot+5.6#44
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#106
Layup/Dunks+0.4#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#29
Freethrows+2.1#76
Improvement-2.1#322

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#45
First Shot+1.8#112
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#15
Layups/Dunks+1.7#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#261
Freethrows+2.3#59
Improvement+0.1#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 3.2% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 9.5% 13.9% 5.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.8% 58.7% 37.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.5% 58.3% 37.4%
Average Seed 8.2 8.0 8.6
.500 or above 84.3% 91.9% 77.2%
.500 or above in Conference 52.4% 57.6% 47.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.5% 1.0%
First Four7.7% 7.6% 7.8%
First Round44.2% 55.1% 34.1%
Second Round24.2% 31.3% 17.7%
Sweet Sixteen7.1% 9.5% 4.8%
Elite Eight2.4% 3.3% 1.6%
Final Four0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Neutral) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 11
Quad 25 - 29 - 13
Quad 34 - 013 - 14
Quad 46 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 226 Campbell W 96-64 95%     1 - 0 +25.3 +18.5 +6.3
  Fri, Nov 7 326 Northern Illinois W 97-72 98%     2 - 0 +12.2 +12.2 -1.2
  Tue, Nov 11 308 Ball St. W 86-55 97%     3 - 0 +19.7 +10.6 +9.8
  Mon, Nov 17 233 SIU Edwardsville W 94-69 95%     4 - 0 +18.0 +25.2 -5.8
  Fri, Nov 21 9 BYU L 70-98 24%     4 - 1 -8.7 +1.2 -8.1
  Thu, Nov 27 70 Providence W 104-83 65%     5 - 1 +28.9 +16.6 +9.3
  Fri, Nov 28 45 TCU L 63-74 53%     5 - 2 +0.0 -5.5 +6.1
  Wed, Dec 3 58 Northwestern W 85-73 70%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +18.3 +13.9 +4.5
  Sat, Dec 6 88 Marquette W 96-76 80%     7 - 2 +22.9 +15.3 +5.5
  Wed, Dec 10 26 @Nebraska L 60-90 28%     7 - 3 1 - 1 -12.1 -4.6 -7.6
  Fri, Dec 19 37 Villanova L 73-74 48%    
  Mon, Dec 22 322 Central Michigan W 88-64 99%    
  Tue, Dec 30 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 90-71 96%    
  Sat, Jan 3 7 Purdue L 74-80 30%    
  Tue, Jan 6 30 UCLA W 75-74 54%    
  Sat, Jan 10 1 @Michigan L 72-90 5%    
  Tue, Jan 13 103 @Minnesota W 74-70 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 133 Rutgers W 82-69 89%    
  Thu, Jan 22 104 @Penn St. W 83-78 66%    
  Sun, Jan 25 34 USC W 83-81 57%    
  Wed, Jan 28 103 Minnesota W 77-67 83%    
  Sat, Jan 31 31 Ohio St. W 80-79 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 27 @Indiana L 74-80 29%    
  Tue, Feb 10 14 @Illinois L 77-86 21%    
  Fri, Feb 13 12 Michigan St. L 72-75 39%    
  Tue, Feb 17 31 @Ohio St. L 77-82 33%    
  Sun, Feb 22 23 Iowa L 73-74 49%    
  Wed, Feb 25 66 @Oregon W 78-77 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 47 @Washington L 77-79 43%    
  Wed, Mar 4 94 Maryland W 83-74 80%    
  Sat, Mar 7 7 @Purdue L 71-83 15%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.0 3.8 1.3 0.1 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.5 2.7 0.2 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.9 4.7 0.8 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.2 2.6 5.8 2.0 0.0 10.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 5.4 3.5 0.3 0.0 10.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.9 0.9 0.0 10.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.7 1.7 0.1 9.3 12th
13th 0.1 1.4 3.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.0 14th
15th 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.2 15th
16th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.8 9.3 12.7 15.3 15.5 13.8 10.2 6.9 3.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 29.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 16.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.5% 100.0% 5.6% 94.4% 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.6% 100.0% 5.5% 94.5% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.7% 100.0% 3.5% 96.5% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 6.9% 98.7% 1.7% 97.1% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
12-8 10.2% 93.2% 1.1% 92.1% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 2.8 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.7 93.1%
11-9 13.8% 83.1% 0.7% 82.4% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 3.3 2.8 1.0 0.0 2.3 83.0%
10-10 15.5% 59.4% 0.3% 59.2% 9.7 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.8 2.7 0.1 6.3 59.3%
9-11 15.3% 25.7% 0.2% 25.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 0.1 11.4 25.5%
8-12 12.7% 6.4% 0.1% 6.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 11.9 6.4%
7-13 9.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 11.1 0.1 0.0 9.2 0.7%
6-14 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 5.8 0.1%
5-15 2.8% 2.8
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 47.8% 0.7% 47.1% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 3.0 4.5 6.6 8.5 8.4 7.8 6.7 0.3 52.2 47.5%