Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#27
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#61
Pace69.6#185
Improvement-2.4#319

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#40
First Shot+8.6#17
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#255
Layup/Dunks+2.6#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#31
Freethrows+2.1#71
Improvement-2.2#331

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#18
First Shot+7.2#17
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#176
Layups/Dunks+8.1#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#28
Freethrows-3.4#340
Improvement-0.2#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 8.4% 8.4% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 24.9% 24.9% 9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.9% 70.9% 52.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.2% 70.3% 52.8%
Average Seed 7.4 7.4 8.5
.500 or above 95.9% 95.9% 81.9%
.500 or above in Conference 69.8% 69.8% 54.2%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Four6.6% 6.6% 11.1%
First Round68.1% 68.2% 50.0%
Second Round45.0% 45.0% 29.2%
Sweet Sixteen17.3% 17.3% 11.1%
Elite Eight6.9% 6.9% 4.2%
Final Four2.6% 2.6% 1.4%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 25 - 10
Quad 25 - 210 - 12
Quad 35 - 014 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 290 Alabama A&M W 98-51 98%     1 - 0 +36.8 +21.4 +15.3
  Sun, Nov 9 88 Marquette W 100-77 80%     2 - 0 +28.9 +23.7 +3.5
  Wed, Nov 12 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 101-70 97%     3 - 0 +24.2 +23.0 +0.9
  Sun, Nov 16 189 Incarnate Word W 69-61 96%     4 - 0 +3.2 -3.1 +7.0
  Thu, Nov 20 237 Lindenwood W 73-53 97%     5 - 0 +12.8 -2.6 +15.2
  Tue, Nov 25 67 Kansas St. W 86-69 82%     6 - 0 +22.3 +7.6 +13.3
  Sat, Nov 29 223 Bethune-Cookman W 100-56 97%     7 - 0 +37.4 +22.2 +14.5
  Wed, Dec 3 103 @Minnesota L 64-73 76%     7 - 1 0 - 1 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9
  Sat, Dec 6 10 Louisville L 78-87 35%     7 - 2 +9.8 +7.3 +3.0
  Tue, Dec 9 104 Penn St. W 113-72 89%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +42.2 +32.9 +7.5
  Sat, Dec 13 21 @Kentucky L 60-72 36%     8 - 3 +6.6 -0.6 +6.6
  Sat, Dec 20 350 Chicago St. W 90-60 99.8%   
  Mon, Dec 22 164 Siena W 79-61 95%    
  Sun, Jan 4 47 Washington W 78-71 74%    
  Wed, Jan 7 94 @Maryland W 78-72 72%    
  Sat, Jan 10 26 Nebraska W 76-73 60%    
  Tue, Jan 13 12 @Michigan St. L 67-73 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 23 Iowa W 72-69 60%    
  Tue, Jan 20 1 @Michigan L 70-85 8%    
  Fri, Jan 23 133 @Rutgers W 77-67 83%    
  Tue, Jan 27 7 Purdue L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 30 @UCLA L 71-73 43%    
  Tue, Feb 3 34 @USC L 78-79 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 40 Wisconsin W 80-74 71%    
  Mon, Feb 9 66 Oregon W 79-70 81%    
  Sun, Feb 15 14 @Illinois L 75-81 30%    
  Fri, Feb 20 7 @Purdue L 69-78 22%    
  Tue, Feb 24 58 Northwestern W 80-71 78%    
  Sun, Mar 1 12 Michigan St. L 70-71 50%    
  Wed, Mar 4 103 Minnesota W 75-62 88%    
  Sat, Mar 7 31 @Ohio St. L 76-78 44%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.5 3.4 4.1 0.9 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 5.3 1.9 0.1 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.5 3.7 0.3 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.0 5.1 1.0 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.2 2.3 5.4 2.1 0.1 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.7 3.3 0.4 9.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.1 0.1 6.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.9 13th
14th 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 2.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 5.0 8.8 12.4 15.0 16.1 14.3 11.1 7.3 3.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 73.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 35.8% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 14.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 2.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.6% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 3.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.8% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 4.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.3% 99.9% 4.8% 95.1% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 11.1% 99.3% 3.7% 95.5% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 3.2 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
12-8 14.3% 97.5% 2.1% 95.4% 7.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.1 3.4 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.4 97.5%
11-9 16.1% 91.1% 1.4% 89.7% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.1 3.8 2.3 0.5 1.4 90.9%
10-10 15.0% 76.6% 1.1% 75.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.0 3.8 1.7 0.0 3.5 76.3%
9-11 12.4% 42.0% 0.4% 41.6% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 0.1 7.2 41.8%
8-12 8.8% 13.9% 0.3% 13.7% 10.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.1 7.6 13.7%
7-13 5.0% 1.8% 0.2% 1.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9 1.6%
6-14 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 2.5 0.1%
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 70.9% 2.1% 68.7% 7.4 0.2 0.8 2.3 5.0 7.5 9.0 11.1 11.0 9.7 8.2 5.7 0.3 29.1 70.2%